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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Completely correct on all of your above post.  
 

Shortwaves aren’t sampled fully yet...if it’s gonna look like crap, I’d rather it now than after the energies are fully on-shore. And if it does look like crap after it’s on shore...we’re all already checked out.  It does resemble the 80’s though...everything starts out decent, and then goes to hell Quickly thereafter; that was the 80’s in a nutshell. 

Sure the 80s had some ratters but not all. Pre Teen and Teenage perceptions  North Foster RI 

Screenshot_20200104-144433_Chrome.jpg

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So two days ago when this thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. :blink:

Yea weird. Sucks though that the flow cant slow even a little.  Two good shortwaves screaming past. 12 hr trip from NJ to see Nick in St John

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So two days ago when his thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. :blink:

Lol...it's almost as if nobody has seen a vortmax tracking south of LI start to produce model ticks back NW before. Bunch of snowflakes.

I'm not sure how some of these posters survived the '07-'09 years. Though I do remember when a ton of posters melted in Jan 2013 and 2015...that was pretty funny. But this is kind of embarrassing on 1/5...I'd sort of understand a little more if it was 1/20 or 1/25. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So two days ago when his thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. :blink:

Lol...it was the one run last night of the GFS that looked good, and the 2 runs off the Euro, and then The Canadian Nuke, and the talk of this being the more bonafide shortwave and decent airmass talk, that got everybody thinking it could happen...we could actually get a snow storm from this.....

So now the GFS goes bad, and the Ukie and Euro go bad too...so it’s off the Tobin the masses go lmao!

If it comes back at 18z or tomorrow sometime..everybody is back from the dead. Just how it works. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...it's almost as if nobody has seen a vortmax tracking south of LI start to produce model ticks back NW before. Bunch of snowflakes.

I'm not sure how some of these posters survived the '07-'09 years. Though I do remember when a ton of posters melted in Jan 2013 and 2015...that was pretty funny. But this is kind of embarrassing on 1/5...I'd sort of understand a little more if it was 1/20 or 1/25. 

Scooter led the charge in 15. If we score anything besides flurries it's a win. I am disappointed though as I had picked out tomorrow and the 8th back on Christmas Eve. Doesn't always work with my formula. Slow this bitch down

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...it's almost as if nobody has seen a vortmax tracking south of LI start to produce model ticks back NW before. Bunch of snowflakes.

I'm not sure how some of these posters survived the '07-'09 years. Though I do remember when a ton of posters melted in Jan 2013 and 2015...that was pretty funny. But this is kind of embarrassing on 1/5...I'd sort of understand a little more if it was 1/20 or 1/25. 

Actually it’s 1/4 today lol...so I guess your point is even more valid. 

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sure the 80s had some ratters but not all. Pre Teen and Teenage perceptions  North Foster RI 

 

I usually am referring to the '80s plus first 3 seasons of the '90s. When you include those putrid years that period becomes pretty ugly. 

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So two days ago when this thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. :blink:

I honestly wasn't engaged enough to share your perspective because I expect so little from this period, regardless. With the baby on deck, I, check out at least excuse imaginable and this period gave me more than I needed.

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29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Me, Ginx, Ray out on this giving us snow and Will and Scoots all in. Times sure have changed 

Nobody is "all in"....we're just not dismissing threats 4 days out. Same reason we don't lock stuff in 4 days out like you often do. 

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54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was 1010mb 12 hours earlier. That's a pretty damned fast deepening. Doubt it verifies but something deepening that quick would support warning snowfall. 

Oh, right ..heh, I didn't honestly look at the previous chart... I just arrogantly dismissed it as a piece of shit at 991 in a punch bowl.  But in fairness, you shed 19 mb in 12 that's technically a bombogenesis ;)

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44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Completely correct on all of your above post.  
 

Shortwaves aren’t sampled fully yet...if it’s gonna look like crap, I’d rather it now than after the energies are fully on-shore. And if it does look like crap after it’s on shore...we’re all already checked out.  It does resemble the 80’s though...everything starts out decent, and then goes to hell Quickly thereafter; that was the 80’s in a nutshell. 

I've mentioned this recently too but I've also noticed ...this doesn't seem to be a factor as much as it used to in the past. 

Hard to say why, though sophisticating in assimilation techniques is ( duh ) most likely available. But also, I've noticed a very subtle tendency to over assimilate S/W's if anything in recent several seasons. It's almost like biasing decimals on the stronger side as a normalization/standard-deviation correction factor - no one's going to notice a over-cast' storm quite as much as the unders ;)

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s funny though. In a d10 mean of 51 members you can almost envision where the primary is there and the potential CAD/secondary over by us.

Yeah it's possible we torch on that look but I've seen so many times where that confluence look in Quebec keeps us out of the warms sector. 

At the very least it looks short lived on that H5. 

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