Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Completely correct on all of your above post. Shortwaves aren’t sampled fully yet...if it’s gonna look like crap, I’d rather it now than after the energies are fully on-shore. And if it does look like crap after it’s on shore...we’re all already checked out. It does resemble the 80’s though...everything starts out decent, and then goes to hell Quickly thereafter; that was the 80’s in a nutshell. Sure the 80s had some ratters but not all. Pre Teen and Teenage perceptions North Foster RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 So two days ago when this thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Me, Ginx, Ray out on this giving us snow and Will and Scoots all in. Times sure have changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I'm starting to wonder if I can fall short of last winter through month end. On its face it would seem a near impossible task, and yet this month feels like it wants to find a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So two days ago when this thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. Yea weird. Sucks though that the flow cant slow even a little. Two good shortwaves screaming past. 12 hr trip from NJ to see Nick in St John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: So two days ago when his thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. Lol...it's almost as if nobody has seen a vortmax tracking south of LI start to produce model ticks back NW before. Bunch of snowflakes. I'm not sure how some of these posters survived the '07-'09 years. Though I do remember when a ton of posters melted in Jan 2013 and 2015...that was pretty funny. But this is kind of embarrassing on 1/5...I'd sort of understand a little more if it was 1/20 or 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Me, Ginx, Ray out on this giving us snow and Will and Scoots all in. Times sure have changed Yea well I haven't made a forecast so I don't know where that is coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So two days ago when his thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. Lol...it was the one run last night of the GFS that looked good, and the 2 runs off the Euro, and then The Canadian Nuke, and the talk of this being the more bonafide shortwave and decent airmass talk, that got everybody thinking it could happen...we could actually get a snow storm from this..... So now the GFS goes bad, and the Ukie and Euro go bad too...so it’s off the Tobin the masses go lmao! If it comes back at 18z or tomorrow sometime..everybody is back from the dead. Just how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol...it's almost as if nobody has seen a vortmax tracking south of LI start to produce model ticks back NW before. Bunch of snowflakes. I'm not sure how some of these posters survived the '07-'09 years. Though I do remember when a ton of posters melted in Jan 2013 and 2015...that was pretty funny. But this is kind of embarrassing on 1/5...I'd sort of understand a little more if it was 1/20 or 1/25. Scooter led the charge in 15. If we score anything besides flurries it's a win. I am disappointed though as I had picked out tomorrow and the 8th back on Christmas Eve. Doesn't always work with my formula. Slow this bitch down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol...it's almost as if nobody has seen a vortmax tracking south of LI start to produce model ticks back NW before. Bunch of snowflakes. I'm not sure how some of these posters survived the '07-'09 years. Though I do remember when a ton of posters melted in Jan 2013 and 2015...that was pretty funny. But this is kind of embarrassing on 1/5...I'd sort of understand a little more if it was 1/20 or 1/25. Actually it’s 1/4 today lol...so I guess your point is even more valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sure the 80s had some ratters but not all. Pre Teen and Teenage perceptions North Foster RI '81-'82 flies under the radar, but it was very good....nice holiday season, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 01/04/20. Mets turned into weenies and weenies turned into mets I’ll always remember it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sure the 80s had some ratters but not all. Pre Teen and Teenage perceptions North Foster RI I usually am referring to the '80s plus first 3 seasons of the '90s. When you include those putrid years that period becomes pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So two days ago when this thing was cutting into New England and giving most of us a driving rain storm nobody melted. Now it’s slides off shore with some wiggle room to give a light to possibly moderate snowfall and everyone melts. I completely get it now. I honestly wasn't engaged enough to share your perspective because I expect so little from this period, regardless. With the baby on deck, I, check out at least excuse imaginable and this period gave me more than I needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Me, Ginx, Ray out on this giving us snow and Will and Scoots all in. Times sure have changed Nobody is "all in"....we're just not dismissing threats 4 days out. Same reason we don't lock stuff in 4 days out like you often do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was 1010mb 12 hours earlier. That's a pretty damned fast deepening. Doubt it verifies but something deepening that quick would support warning snowfall. Oh, right ..heh, I didn't honestly look at the previous chart... I just arrogantly dismissed it as a piece of shit at 991 in a punch bowl. But in fairness, you shed 19 mb in 12 that's technically a bombogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I usually am referring to the '80s plus first 3 seasons of the '90s. When you include those putrid years that period becomes pretty ugly. And then we crushed it sans 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: And then we crushed it sans 94. Yeah. Dec '92 broke the drought for me and then we had some amazing winters there for a time before the little lull in late '90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 this is fast becoming one of our favorite winters. A special one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Completely correct on all of your above post. Shortwaves aren’t sampled fully yet...if it’s gonna look like crap, I’d rather it now than after the energies are fully on-shore. And if it does look like crap after it’s on shore...we’re all already checked out. It does resemble the 80’s though...everything starts out decent, and then goes to hell Quickly thereafter; that was the 80’s in a nutshell. I've mentioned this recently too but I've also noticed ...this doesn't seem to be a factor as much as it used to in the past. Hard to say why, though sophisticating in assimilation techniques is ( duh ) most likely available. But also, I've noticed a very subtle tendency to over assimilate S/W's if anything in recent several seasons. It's almost like biasing decimals on the stronger side as a normalization/standard-deviation correction factor - no one's going to notice a over-cast' storm quite as much as the unders 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: this is fast becoming one of our favorite winters. A special one. Weird ...you'd think a warm winter with no snow would be more your speed - ... mercurial I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: this is fast becoming one of our favorite winters. A special one. You install yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nobody is "all in"....we're just not dismissing threats 4 days out. Same reason we don't lock stuff in 4 days out like you often do. You guys are totally reasonable. Could still be a few inches, though I doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 That's not even that warm of a look. Lot of confluence there in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's not even that warm of a look. Lot of confluence there in Quebec. Looks gradient like, to me...certainly not too warm in NE. Maybe mid atl.. I'd expect overrunning and SWFE there, rather than big coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's not even that warm of a look. Lot of confluence there in Quebec. Dr Dewsh sees pretty Orange colors and is quick to stir the pot like the Trouble making spoon that he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I wouldn’t call it cold either. The devil is in the details. There’s a good chance the wintry gradient could be north of us. Maybe that would verify like the NYE event that had high thicknesses. Could end up a torch too. H85 is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 It’s funny though. In a d10 mean of 51 members you can almost envision where the primary is there and the potential CAD/secondary over by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s funny though. In a d10 mean of 51 members you can almost envision where the primary is there and the potential CAD/secondary over by us. Yeah it's possible we torch on that look but I've seen so many times where that confluence look in Quebec keeps us out of the warms sector. At the very least it looks short lived on that H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 SN. 34.5f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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