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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant.  Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant.  Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? 

Sounds like last season with the EPO dumping west and storms encountering zero resistance to cutting.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant.  Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? 

Of course but it's nice to look at. There is always a risk. 

Gfs just came in with a coastal 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds like last season with the EPO dumping west and storms encountering zero resistance to cutting.

I’m not sure it will be quite that bad. I hope. And who knows, maybe it’s just a bit more East and we get slammed. I have no idea, I’m just saying it’s a pattern that supports a mix of snow and cutters. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure it will be quite that bad. I hope. And who knows, maybe it’s just a bit more East and we get slammed. I have no idea, I’m just saying it’s a pattern that supports a mix of snow and cutters. 

Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily need a March 2018, either...

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily a March 2018, either...

I hate these relaxation periods. Life is always easier knowing snow is in the cards lol. Anyways, another week + of a lousy pattern before we reshuffle. 

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've already had more breaks than last year...remember that we whiffed on the early December 2018 window. Many got nailed in early December 2019, though I know not everyone. Most of sne, anyway is at least going better than a year ago.

Agreed a good December, I did not go back Ray to your "winter outlook", I think you, Scott and many others said after mid. December we have a chance of something which came through, then Scott/You and others said a relax period or a yo-yo with a chance, then weeklies look good, then not so good? I hope we re-load time stamp 6th on? Anyways I think most want snow on the ground from late November till late March, with no melting in between! Anyways I guess one storm at a time.....

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant.  Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? 

The only way that storm doesn’t cut in that pattern is if the pattern is fluid and transient.  There’s been a few storms over the years (never KUs because of the speed) that have run over 40-70 in a setup such as that.  They usually occur right at the start of the cold outbreak which as we know is rare.  In general when you see a pattern shift, even a brief one the snow event usually occurs several days or more in.   Then immediately after the storm the ridge out west breaks down again it moves into the plains and we go right back to warm.  If that ridge holds there for 7-10 days behind the storm and the pattern isn’t transient that thing cuts most of the time 

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2 hours ago, 512high said:

Agreed a good December, I did not go back Ray to your "winter outlook", I think you, Scott and many others said after mid. December we have a chance of something which came through, then Scott/You and others said a relax period or a yo-yo with a chance, then weeklies look good, then not so good? I hope we re-load time stamp 6th on? Anyways I think most want snow on the ground from late November till late March, with no melting in between! Anyways I guess one storm at a time.....

I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December.

Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December.

Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has.

I have a hunch you will proclaim few changes from your seasonal forecast...except maybe less perturbation of the polar strat.

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