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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let the South trend commence...

 

It probably comes south and attenuates as it does...  

4-6" where this one fails, that succeeds or something. 

I just have a tough time believing bombogen feed-backs but again, like I and apparently Will have been cautioning, ...these short-comings can be overcome, it's just a matter of whether the rarefied anomaly gets injected into the flow that is capable of doing it...  

 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another few runs and it’ll be a fropa. Writing on wall

No, it's not going to end up as a FROPA....it will be a real storm...just wouldn't surprise me if it tames and goes a bit east....which actually might help SNE to be honest.

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the mechanics of this event are much more robust....but everything has trended more progressive/flatter from about D4-6 in this pattern. Starting with that 12/28 event. That was a 55F cutter to powderfreak 4 days out....same deal with this 1/4-5 event. Barring some other offsetting trend in the synoptics, I'll bet this one ends up more progressive too....it won't be enough to eliminate the storm though because it has a pretty nice looking shortwave...it will still be a good storm for a pretty good area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it tames a bit on total QPF and ends up more east than what it shows right now.

That said, there could still be something to offset the progressive trend...maybe the upstream ridge becomes more amped out near the rockies and helps drive this deeper. I just wouldn't bet that way right now since it hasn't been happening in this pattern.

It is very sound logic in this progressive flow.  The non-sound logic that gets to the same ending is that lows trying to track over the coastal plain from HFD to PWM usually tick east anyway towards the water and baroclinic zone along the water.  I’m always skeptical of that track as shown.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the mechanics of this event are much more robust....but everything has trended more progressive/flatter from about D4-6 in this pattern. Starting with that 12/28 event. That was a 55F cutter to powderfreak 4 days out....same deal with this 1/4-5 event. Barring some other offsetting trend in the synoptics, I'll bet this one ends up more progressive too....it won't be enough to eliminate the storm though because it has a pretty nice looking shortwave...it will still be a good storm for a pretty good area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it tames a bit on total QPF and ends up more east than what it shows right now.

That said, there could still be something to offset the progressive trend...maybe the upstream ridge becomes more amped out near the rockies and helps drive this deeper. I just wouldn't bet that way right now since it hasn't been happening in this pattern.

Yeah, My bet is it goes a bit east of where its being modeled right now, That would end up in a better position up here as it wants to cut or hug the coast into DE Maine.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, it's going to be a nice event for a chunk of the interior....we'll see how far southeast it can snow. Wouldn't surprise me if future runs tickle it a bit further E based on the reasoning above.

I need to recalibrate my understanding of "interior".  It was easy when I lived in GC.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s where there be dragons 

The entire state of Maine and NH? 

I think you should move up and in, you're not even a beach guy and you'd have a better commute and cheaper housing. Plus your kids wouldn't have to live next to snobby towns like Hingham.  Wellesley kids made fun of us Natick kids so bad I had to move far away before I couldn't hear the jeers anymore. 

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9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The entire state of Maine and NH? 

I think you should move up and in, you're not even a beach guy and you'd have a better commute and cheaper housing. Plus your kids wouldn't have to live next to snobby towns like Hingham.  Wellesley kids made fun of us Natick kids so bad I had to move far away before I couldn't hear the jeers anymore. 

:lol:   I like the beach, used to beach it all the time when I was younger. Why didn’t you guys knock the Wellesley kids out?

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You guys aren't doing half bad for winter so far relative to the rest of the country. I think going forward, El Nino should be viewed more in the context of elevation than it is now. The mountains of New England & the Southwest are probably the only areas of the US with a real shot of a cold winter still. Maybe the Northern Plains too, Billings was similarly warm through last January and still finished cold, because their weather is stupid amazing in term of variation, it was 22F below or something in February after something like a +7 Dec-Jan. For most of the US, a month 20F below average is lottery odds to physically impossible.

These are 12/1-1/3 temps v. 1981-2010 averages nationally. Roger Smith had mentioned the mid-January torch in his mid-October forecast - pretty good. 

Nashville: (8.0 x 31) + (3 x 11.3) / 34 --> +8.3F

Billings: (6.6 x 31) + (3 x 12.3) / 34 --> +7.1F

Chicago: (6.3 x 31) + (3 x 13.0) / 34 --> +6.9F

Kansas City: (6.4 x 31) + (3 x 12.3) / 34 --> 6.9F

Jacksonville: (5.4 x 31) + (3 x 9.7) / 34 --> +6.3F

Atlanta: (5.9 x 31) + (3 x 7.3) /34 --> +6.0F

Detroit: (5.0 x 31) + (3 x 13.0) / 34 --> +5.7F

Amarillo: (5.0 x 31) + (3 x 5.0) / 34 --> +5.0F

New Orleans: (4.0 x 31) + (3 x 10.3) / 34 --> +4.6F

Seattle: (3.9 x 31) + (3 x 6.2) / 34 --> +4.1F

Salt Lake City: (3.6 x 31) + (3 x 5.5) / 34 --> +3.8F

Denver: (3.7 x 31) + (3 x 3.3) / 34 --> +3.7F

Pittsburgh: (3.0 x 31) + (3 x 10.7) / 34 --> +3.7F

Richmond: (3.0 x 31) + (3 x 9.5) / 34 --> +3.6F

Houston: (3.2 x 31) + (3 x 6.0) / 34 --> +3.4F

Boston: (2.5 x 31) + (3 x 13) / 34 --> +3.4F

San Francisco: (2.9 x 31) + (3 x 3.0) / 34 --> +2.9F

Oklahoma City: (2.3 x 31) + (3 x 7.0) / 34 --> +2.7F

San Diego:(2.2 x 31) + (3 x 2.4) / 34 --> +2.2F

Philadelphia: (1.2 x 31) + (3 x 5.5) / 34 --> +1.6F

Albuquerque: (1.3 x 31) + (3 x -2.2) / 34 --> +1.0F

Flagstaff: (-0.2 x 31) + (3 x -4.0) / 34 --> -0.5F

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like overnight guidance coninutes to shift in the east/progressive direction for 1/8....weaker system but colder. Prob snow for most of SNE off coastline. 

That was nice to see.  The 12th on the other hand looks to have taken a turn for the worse.  Tons of time for both.

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