HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... no - hence the phrase, "ground based" ... that's 'relative to the earth's surface,' which is a stationary object, relative to the combination of the air plain's velocity, together with the velocity of the moving air. The plain's velocity, relative to the moving air, is still just 525. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/record-breaking-jet-stream-accelerates-air-travel-el-nino-polar-vortex/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: right ...it's nice because it doesn't try to overcome the velocity saturation and has a weaker later bloomer that is moving through faster than the 00z version, like it should - It has your 30+ hour ice storm too at the end of the run......lol I'll preface this by saying this is a clown range map and not to be taken seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 So we should lock this in, Maybe even start a thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: So we should lock this in, Maybe even start a thread. Go for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Go for it That was tongue and cheek, I usually know the ones to start one on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 So in preparation for my trip to VT, I looked at muthufukkas and there are 8! Might be a tough drive Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: So in preparation for my trip to VT, I looked at muthufukkas and there are 8! Might be a tough drive Wednesday night I would say you will be right in the thick of it going there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That was tongue and cheek, I usually know the ones to start one on. I was also joking.. come on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... no - hence the phrase, "ground based" ... that's 'relative to the earth's surface,' which is a stationary object, relative to the combination of the air plain's velocity, together with the velocity of the moving air. The plain's velocity, relative to the moving air, is still just 525. The air plain has to move at certain velocities to maintain lift. At cruising velocity, which is at level altitude, it's typically in that gate for 80 to 90 ton vehicles. So if the air is moving 200, the 'plain still needs to move 525 in that air stream... but to the outside observer on the Earth's surface sees the air stream and plain combined velocity. https://www.wired.com/story/norwegian-air-transatlantic-speed-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: So we should lock this in, Maybe even start a thread. 8-12". lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Winter giving us the ole Samuel Jackson treatment recently. ”How’s it taste mother fukka!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Gefs really improves by the 17th with the epo helping out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs really improves by the 17th with the epo helping out. It’s January 3rd. That seems like a long time away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It has your 30+ hour ice storm too at the end of the run......lol I'll preface this by saying this is a clown range map and not to be taken seriously Oh I’m sure the Euro’s about to roll out the end of civility as we know it… lol yeah no It’s really kind a like what Eric was talking about the other day… How these extended range monster storms do have some usefulness in that they describe kind of a background probability more so than an actual occurrence. I think it really relates to that here; And I’ve hypothesized why…. We keep seeing these types of big ice storms out there and they’ve yet to come to fruition doesn’t mean that the pattern isn’t conducive it just means that we’re not getting the set ups near terms to cash in-so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Euro is continuing with the theme of making 1/8 more progressive...makes sense based on the synoptic setup and fast flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is continuing with the theme of making 1/8 more progressive...makes sense based on the synoptic setup and fast flow. Still a really nice hit for interior New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Still a really nice hit for interior New England Yes, it's going to be a nice event for a chunk of the interior....we'll see how far southeast it can snow. Wouldn't surprise me if future runs tickle it a bit further E based on the reasoning above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is continuing with the theme of making 1/8 more progressive...makes sense based on the synoptic setup and fast flow. Still potential for that to be a late coastal bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6"+ right now looks good for the 8th for at least pike north folks verbatim on that 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Man if we could only lock that in. Sucks its still 4-5 days out. 24-hr totals. Just a huge chunk of New England in 6+. Most of it occupied by trees and moose though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man if we could only lock that in. Sucks its still 4-5 days out. 24-hr totals. Just a huge chunk of New England in 6+. Most of it occupied by trees and moose though. It will be occupied by many many from MA/CT over the next few weeks if the pack is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man if we could only lock that in. Sucks its still 4-5 days out. 24-hr totals. Don't get Sucked into the Trap. Same thing happened for us here in Connecticut with the storm for this Sunday. 2 or 3 days ago it was showing us getting a snow nice little snow storm. Now Zippo. Take it with a grain of sand, not salt LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/record-breaking-jet-stream-accelerates-air-travel-el-nino-polar-vortex/ Here's what's gonna happen... Over the next circa decades, maybe sooner, maybe later ( picking which one based upon some assholier than thou head up the buttness reality we need to believe in...) the HC will have expanded to engulf the mid latitudes ... Around that time, the polar regions will have warmed so vastly - or vastly enough .. - that they no longer impose the same ambient gradient girdled to the warm height regions of the planet. The flows will relax everywhere. Prolly 200 years ... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Don't get Sucked into the Trap. Same thing happened for us here in Connecticut with the storm for this Sunday. 2 or 3 days ago it was showing us getting a snow nice little snow storm. Now Zippo. Take it with a grain of sand, not salt LOL No wheres near the same crappy setup as this weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The fast flow can be overcome ... Don't think in absolutes - just in case. It's a game of probabilities. It's just that when the flow is speed contaminated/compression suppression, the probability is more against. But storms can happen in those extremes. You just need an anomaly relative to that flow, capable of overcoming. The deal later this week still has a modicum of uncertainty there...as the governing mechanics are over the vast Pac domain so - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here's what's gonna happen... Over the next circa decades, maybe sooner, maybe later ( picking which one based upon some assholier than thou head up the buttness reality we need to believe in...) the HC will have expanded to engulf the mid latitudes ... Around that time, the polar regions will have warmed so vastly - or vastly enough .. - that they no longer impose the same ambient gradient girdled to the warm height regions of the planet. The flows will relax everywhere. Prolly 200 years ... who knows. 0.5° per decade is the current rate I see most often quoted. So 200 years is 10° farther north or 600 n mi. Nova Scotia would be the new secondary cyclogenesis point in miller B's and we play the role that Hilton Head, SC plays now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: No wheres near the same crappy setup as this weekends. Yeah the mechanics of this event are much more robust....but everything has trended more progressive/flatter from about D4-6 in this pattern. Starting with that 12/28 event. That was a 55F cutter to powderfreak 4 days out....same deal with this 1/4-5 event. Barring some other offsetting trend in the synoptics, I'll bet this one ends up more progressive too....it won't be enough to eliminate the storm though because it has a pretty nice looking shortwave...it will still be a good storm for a pretty good area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it tames a bit on total QPF and ends up more east than what it shows right now. That said, there could still be something to offset the progressive trend...maybe the upstream ridge becomes more amped out near the rockies and helps drive this deeper. I just wouldn't bet that way right now since it hasn't been happening in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the mechanics of this event are much more robust....but everything has trended more progressive/flatter from about D4-6 in this pattern. Starting with that 12/28 event. That was a 55F cutter to powderfreak 4 days out....same deal with this 1/4-5 event. Barring some other offsetting trend in the synoptics, I'll bet this one ends up more progressive too....it won't be enough to eliminate the storm though because it has a pretty nice looking shortwave...it will still be a good storm for a pretty good area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it tames a bit on total QPF and ends up more east than what it shows right now. That said, there could still be something to offset the progressive trend...maybe the upstream ridge becomes more amped out near the rockies and helps drive this deeper. I just wouldn't bet that way right now since it hasn't been happening in this pattern. That's what we should be looking for down this way. Day 10 looks interesting too. Ice, Ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: You might as well go all in with Kuchie lol Congrats Let the South trend commence... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 OKay...have seen it. Yeah, I'm not too put off by that solution actually. It appears to be a compromised result of the fast flow and conservation of mechanics just at a paint-brushed perspective. Note, the mechanics are situated on this run's initializaiton over the region between Alaska and Hawaii, during an era with a falling PNA... This latter large scale circulation character change makes it complex at best how/what is being handled in that vicinity ...which obviously will bear upon what gets ejected screaming with beady eyed rage through the west ... jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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