January 2020 Discussion

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think mid week is more likely a mix or cold rain vs snow for most of SNE. Nothing is breaking our way anymore 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

I will say, if you live in the southern 2/3rds of SNE, draw a line across the region from about Hartford South, this winter has blown so far. These upcoming threats don’t look all that promising for said area either. Up and in. Worked last season, seems to be fitting ATM also.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm selling the monster stemwinder solutions since this is still very fast flow. This storm could def bomb out but is going to be moving fast imho. So I'd favor the progressive solutions unless we trend the western ridge bigger....which could happen of course. But we've not been seeing that in this pattern. 

I always sell those.  It takes a special pattern to produce that.

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Until this shifts east, we run the risk of cutters.  It's a good pattern for the west though.

Perhaps that hgh pressure builds a bit more over western quebec though and then we get overrunning.  That trough in the west will certainly spit out energy.  I think this is a bad pattern for the Mid Atlantic for sure, and probably the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, but I'm not convinced it is so bad for New England.

[dryslot]

38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Until this shifts east, we run the risk of cutters.  It's a good pattern for the west though.

Its been ongoing out there this season.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its been ongoing out there this season.

And it’s not changing anytime soon. Time to book a ski trip out west. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS tickled a little colder for the mid-week threat...prob would be pretty nice for interior SNE up into CNE/NNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS tickled a little colder for the mid-week threat...prob would be pretty nice for interior SNE up into CNE/NNE.

We’ve reached a point where this gets filed in the fwiw category. Tracking has become exhausting this season, especially when the most reliable guidance has choked several times now.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a weenie run of the Euro last night.  

Gah.  

Day 5 threat. 

Day 10 totals. 

You might as well go all in with Kuchie lol Congrats 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Until this shifts east, we run the risk of cutters.  It's a good pattern for the west though.

 

Mm... I'd argue that's an artifice of a product that has a subtle, but crucially important, tendency to back dig whole-scale pattern prematurely west.  I wouldn't believe that pattern really averages that demonstratively -PNAPie ... It's been flagged like this all season, and we've trended more zonal ...  Modeled flows have trouble when they near zonal constructs, as that orientation is really sensitive to permutation; the ensemble means tend to exaggerate those because of that sensitivity and end up flopping to prodigiously on a (-) vs (+) PNAP side depending which. 

That said, the underpinning concept you're making is valid ... a western heights surge and one that sticks, would be a bona fide pattern change and with that would come a concomitant shift in the mean storm track and storm characteristics and all that gunk. So sticking with that much ...yeah, agreed. If for nothing else, it's adnauseam looking at that structure at this point.   Man, talk about a macro-scaled, foundation rooted heat-source-and sink hemisphere.  This thing is like immovable -

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And it’s not changing anytime soon. Time to book a ski trip out west. 

do it and then it will snow here!  but you have to have committed and spent the money non-refundable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm selling the monster stemwinder solutions since this is still very fast flow. This storm could def bomb out but is going to be moving fast imho. So I'd favor the progressive solutions unless we trend the western ridge bigger....which could happen of course. But we've not been seeing that in this pattern. 

Yep...this is why I never bought into Sunday.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep...this is why I never bought into Sunday.

We've been seeing a tendency all season for storms to amplify in the day 4/5 range, only to dampen out on the short term.  

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep...this is why I never bought into Sunday.

This next one doesn't look like it has a lot of room to amp either....that front-running shortwave that gives the light snow showers on Monday is interfering.

[Typhoon Tip]

I still think the 35 to 50th parallel band across N/A ... east of ~ the Plains, is tip-toeing and getting lucky through an ice-storm field of landmines.   I just wonder when one gets stepped on and that other shoe falls. 

What is happening here is an atmospheric - planetary geo-physical circumstance of having the Rockies topography and the modest +PNAP constancy existing in tandem with an expanded Hadley Cell.  

The increased at time, velocity saturation and uber compression is a separate matter, but a real one.  That fast flow - you better believe! - is partial in why this weekend's gig is going to end up a blown up ravioli... In fact, I'd argue next weeks may suffer for the same speed problems and that fact that before the S/W moves E of roughly 110 across mid latitudes, the wind flags are already approaching 75 and 100 kts in some cases, and you can't roll out the critical lead S/W ridging that has to feed-back constructively into the total wave space --> lending the cyclogen..etc..  It's like a foot ball game... No edge threat, means the middle collapses, and then you can't establish a run game and the offense stymies...  heh. somethin' like that..., it's to point out that there are transitive relationships. 

But that's all separate matter to the ice-storm we've been dodging ... The sleet bomb was an attempt ... but those types of inverted sounding disturbances are favored for an emergent reason associated with the expanded Hadley Cell.  In one sense... intuitively that makes sense; expanded HC means warmer means less snow and sleet is less snow... But, what's really happening here is more fascinating than that scale of refinement.  

As the HC expands it is enhancing the potential ( in the means ... ) for confluent structures to ephemerally and more at length, at mid troposphere over ~ the 55th latitude across N/A...a condition that is perhaps enhanced further by that static, foundation tendency for modest +PNAP that always is in place E of the Rockies/western N/A continental topography. In a lot of ways ... the oreographic nature of N/A helps to fight back against what would probably already be a naked exposure to the HC encroaching on the lower Ferrel latitudes.  These confluences and their lower cooling of the troposhere are masking the effect of a warming atmosphere ( for one...) overall, because they 'wedge' cold air and we end up with the inverted soundings with warm layers aloft N of roughly 35 and especially the 40th parallels. 

This predicament ... "should" favor icing events... I keep seeing the extended GFS flagging these... but when they get closer, the normal modeling chaos appears to disrupt those signals in lieu of other emergences that are either similar or just different, but altogether... moving really quickly in the fast flow that is typical of zonal - which is also a velocity circumstance that is being augmented worse by higher heights in from the south constantly pressing against the seasonal nadir attempting to be reached associated with boreal winter.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I still think the 35 to 50th parallel band across N/A ... east of ~ the Plains, is tip-toeing and getting lucky through an ice-storm landmine.   I wonder when it gets stepped on and that other shoe falls. 

What is happening here is an atmospheric - planetary geo-physical circumstance of having the Rockies topography and the modest +PNAP constancy existing in tandem with an expanded Hadley Cell.  

The increased at time, velocity saturation and uber compression is a separate matter, but a real one.  That fast flow - you better believe! - is partial in why this weekend's gig is going to end up a blown up ravioli... In fact, I'd argue next weeks may suffer for the same speed problems and that fact that before the S/W moves E of roughly 110 across mid latitudes, the wind flags are already approaching 75 and 100 kts in some cases, and you can't roll out the critical lead S/W ridging that has to feed-back constructively into the total wave space --> lending the cyclogen..etc..  It's like a foot ball game... No edge threat, means the middle collapses, and then you can establish a run game and the offense stymies...  heh. somethin' like that... 

But that's all separate matter to the ice-storm we've been dodging ... The sleet bomb was an attempt ... but those types of inverted sounding disturbances are favored for an emergent reason associated with the expanded Hadley Cell.  In one sense... intuitively that makes sense; expanded HC means warmer means less snow and sleet is less snow... But, what's really happening here is more fascinating than that scale of refinement.  

As the HC expands it is enhancing the potential ( in the means ... ) for confluent structures to ephemerally and more at length, at mid troposphere over ~ the 55th latitude across N/A...a condition that is perhaps enhanced further by that static, foundation tendency for modest +PNAP that always is in place E of the Rockies/western N/A continental topography.  These confluences are masking the effect of a warming atmosphere ( for one...) because they 'wedge' cold air and we end up with the inverted soundings with warm layers aloft N of roughly 35 and especially the 40th parallels. 

This predicament ... "should" favor icing events... I keep seeing the extended GFS flagging these... but when they get closer, the normal modeling chaos appears to disrupt those signals in lieu of other emergences that are either similar or just different, but altogether... moving really quickly in the fast flow that is typical of zonal - which is also a velocity circumstance that is being augmented worse by higher heights in from the south constantly pressing against the seasonal nadir attempting to be reached associated with boreal winter.  

You'll like the clown range Euro on this idea....ensembles actually sort of support something like this too...might need to watch

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll like the clown range Euro on this idea....ensembles actually sort of support something like this too...might need to watch

 

heh... speaking of which... 

Haven't looked at much honestly today ... In a twist, I have shit to do at work - it's been slow but ebb and flow. you know how that goes

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... speaking of which... 

Haven't looked at much honestly today ... In a twist, I have shit to do at work - it's been slow but ebb and flow. you know how that goes

Sit on the toilet then 

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS tickled a little colder for the mid-week threat...prob would be pretty nice for interior SNE up into CNE/NNE.

Progressive pattern can help a bit sometimes. Another low that looked like a cutter a day or two back. 

[Whineminster]

@Typhoon Tip calling for big icers the next month!!!! Yesssssss! It's been 22 years since 1998 so we're overdue.

On another note, first with CC you go from SN to IP/ZR as things heat up,  and then eventually after our life times you go from ZR to just RA. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is amped for next week

Too amped for the coast 

[MJOatleast7]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is amped for next week

Too amped for the coast 

HC expansion = amped -> damped.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Progressive pattern can help a bit sometimes. Another low that looked like a cutter a day or two back. 

Yeah the euro was slicing it through BUF or CLE a few days ago. I never quite bought that though given the ensembles were well east and the pattern just doesn't seem to support wound-up westward solutions. This storm does get a little western ridge injection of energy late, so it tries to amp up....but it will be fighting against the progressive flow and the lead shortwave.

[Spanks45]

I know the warm up/thaw is coming, but even 10 days from now, the EURO is showing quite the push of cold coming down....I know it is the OP and all, but I have seen worse this season alone...If it is going to warm up with little snow, I want 60s, not 40s...

[Typhoon Tip]

This is cool lookin'   Below is a cut-away of the 270 .. someodd hour of the GFS over the Great Lakes, 500 mb synoptic snapshot.  Note the ovoid annotation?  Those are 150 to 160 kts indicators on those wind flags. 

If one were in a commercial airliner ... with a typical thrust velocity around 525 mph and were flying at the 500 mb sigmal level, your 'ground-based speed' would be Mock 1  - the speed of sound

 

[MJOatleast7]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is cool lookin'   Below is a cut-away of the 270 .. someodd hour of the GFS over the Great Lakes, 500 mb synoptic snapshot.  Note the ovoid annotation?  Those are 150 to 160 kts indicators on those wind flags. 

If one were in a commercial airliner ... with a typical thrust velocity around 525 mph and were flying at the 500 mb sigmal level, your 'ground-based speed' would be Mock 1  - the speed of sound

 

sonic booms from SW-bound planes?

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No . Just slightly AN and not much snow in SNE

Almost certain heights/temps will build as we approach the warm-up. 

Near record MJO 4/5 amplitude paired with soaring AO/NAO and a deeply -PNA all but ensures near record to record warmth. 

[moneypitmike]

Nice run on the CMC.  8/12 both showing promise.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Nice run on the CMC.  8/12 both showing promise.

right ...it's nice because it doesn't try to overcome the velocity saturation and has a weaker later bloomer that is moving through faster than the 00z version, like it should -

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

sonic booms from SW-bound planes?

heh... no -

hence the phrase, "ground based" ... that's 'relative to the earth's surface,' which is a stationary object, relative to the combination of the air plain's velocity, together with the velocity of the moving air.  The plain's velocity, relative to the moving air, is still just 525. 

The air plain has to move at certain velocities to maintain lift.  At cruising velocity, which is at level altitude, it's typically in that gate for 80 to 90 ton vehicles. So if the air is moving 200, the 'plain still needs to move 525 in that air stream... but to the outside observer on the Earth's surface sees the air stream and plain combined velocity.