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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Me thinks the 8th threat will follow the same fate this Sunday's system has gone. No scientific backing but just a feeling going by how these "threats" have gone this year save 12/1-12/3/19. Things don't exactly look rosy for a while aftger the 8th either.

The next 3 weeks and maybe more are going to suck and be frustrating. Hopefully the last week and February can deliver ala 2015 and what's seemed like every year since then with all these "backloaded winters".

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Remember the back door with temperatures remaining in the 70s at Logan.  That’s how you know you’re living large....late March door and 74 degrees out...

I don't recall for that time span in question, 2008 - ~ 2013 ... which overall, I felt were a-typical springs sparing the harsh cruelty that is the New England geographical rectal polyp on Satan's 'roid place to be on Earth..   But I do recall a April in 2001 I think it was... that was a crazy hot April. We have like 4 days of 90 and 10 or more 80+ ...and most days otherwise were in the 70s... and one such day we were doing sets of tennis on the public courts there in Waltham, ...'bout 5 pm, temps in the 80s and a similar thing happened.  A brief wind shift to the ENE came through, you could smell the sea air, and the temperature plummeted to 74.

 

In April -

I'd say those obscene years are 1 in 11 type return rate... maybe 1 in 13 or something, though wonder if we're just getting "lucky" in not having one of those lately with the CC shifting shit going on.

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't recall for that time span in question, 2008 - ~ 2013 ... which overall, I felt were a-typical springs sparing the harsh cruelty that is the New England geographical rectal polyp on Satan's 'roid place to be on Earth..   But I do recall a April in 2001 I think it was... that was a crazy hot April. We have like 4 days of 90 and 10 or more 80+ ...and most days otherwise were in the 70s... and one such day we were doing sets of tennis on the public courts there in Waltham, ...'bout 5 pm, temps in the 80s and a similar thing happened.  A brief wind shift to the ENE came through, you could smell the sea air, and the temperature plummeted to 74.

 

In April -

I'd say those obscene years are 1 in 11 type return rate... maybe 1 in 13 or something, though wonder if we're just getting "lucky" in not having one of those lately with the CC shifting shit going on.

April 2002 is the one you're thinking of with those multiple 90+ days. We actually ended up getting some wet snow about a week later. Didn't accumulate much though. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

GGEM and EURO really blow that Day 5-6 thing up.  GFS not biting, but looks like some of the GEFS members have similar higher impact snows for the interior.  Long way out but that should be the next one worth watching.  

Nah, cancelled through 1/20.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I lived inland I would definitely watch next week. 

Antecedent airmass is good with that. We don't even need phasing. A slightly flatter solution would be a big front ender. There's a few ways that one could snow. 

Euro verbatim wasn't that good though for SNE but it wasn't far off. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Antecedent airmass is good with that. We don't even need phasing. A slightly flatter solution would be a big front ender. There's a few ways that one could snow. 

Euro verbatim wasn't that good though for SNE but it wasn't far off. 

You can see the differences in phasing on the individual members of the GEFS and EPS.  Everything from max snow down your way to some showing like monster totals in western and northern NY...and everything in between.  

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You can see the differences in phasing on the individual members of the GEFS and EPS.  Everything from max snow down your way to some showing like monster totals in western and northern NY...and everything in between.  

I'm selling the monster stemwinder solutions since this is still very fast flow. This storm could def bomb out but is going to be moving fast imho. So I'd favor the progressive solutions unless we trend the western ridge bigger....which could happen of course. But we've not been seeing that in this pattern. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm selling the monster stemwinder solutions since this is still very fast flow. This storm could def bomb out but is going to be moving fast imho. So I'd favor the progressive solutions unless we trend the western ridge bigger....which could happen of course. But we've not been seeing that in this pattern. 

Without details, in broad strokes I think that more progressive solution would favor some wintry appeal for SNE even with a less than ideal airmass.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Without details, in broad strokes I think that more progressive solution would favor some wintry appeal for SNE even with a less than ideal airmass.

Assuming the low doesn't track almost over our heads....yeah maybe. 

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