January 2020 Discussion

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

The GEFS at 18z kinda showed this at the end of the run too....maybe the thaw will end up being 2 weeks instead of 4?

To have a thaw...you have to have a freeze first lol.  Where’s the freeze?  

[weathafella]

End of eps looks better.  Hopefully it holds.  It looks like 1/20 onward things improve,   Kevin, you should have stuck with that wording without  including the outlandish snow call...lol.

[moneypitmike]

What are folks thoughts on the 8th?  Things look pretty disjointed--any reasonable hope there?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

End of eps looks better.  Hopefully it holds.  It looks like 1/20 onward things improve,   Kevin, you should have stuck with that wording without  including the outlandish snow call...lol.

Truth 

[Torch Tiger]

over the top hype in the 1/4 mess thread, wow

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

End of eps looks better.  Hopefully it holds.  It looks like 1/20 onward things improve,   Kevin, you should have stuck with that wording without  including the outlandish snow call...lol.

GEFS continues that theme...

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

End of eps looks better.  Hopefully it holds.  It looks like 1/20 onward things improve,   Kevin, you should have stuck with that wording without  including the outlandish snow call...lol.

[moneypitmike]

Very little posting.  Everyone’s New Years resolution must be to double down at work.

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Very little posting.  Everyone’s New Years resolution must be to double down at work.

folks are fixated on the incoming 1-3" flizzard

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I am interested in the January 7-9th period, that clipper looks very energetic at H5.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice trends on LR modeling looks like around the 15th 16th Teleconnections improve dramatically.  Tanking NAO AO EPO with a neutral PNA.  2/3 snow threats prior with a early Jan thaw week. Buckle up 

[Bostonseminole]

GFS looks ok for the 8th, maybe another 2-3" on top of the 4-8" we get Sunday.

[moneypitmike]

25 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

GFS looks ok for the 8th, maybe another 2-3" on top of the 4-8" we get Sunday.

You might want to reverse the amounts of those two events.

[Bostonseminole]

41 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

You might want to reverse the amounts of those two events.

pending 12z euro

[MJOatleast7]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice trends on LR modeling looks like around the 15th 16th Teleconnections improve dramatically.  Tanking NAO AO EPO with a neutral PNA.  2/3 snow threats prior with a early Jan thaw week. Buckle up 

MJO still needs improvement, but not quite so much looking like it wants to camp out all month in 4-5

How far does your source go out? PNA isn't exactly cooperating at least until Jan 16 according to CPC

[Torch Tiger]

5 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

folks are fixated on the incoming 1-3" flizzard

dutifully tried to warm them, as always

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice trends on LR modeling looks like around the 15th 16th Teleconnections improve dramatically.  Tanking NAO AO EPO with a neutral PNA.  2/3 snow threats prior with a early Jan thaw week. Buckle up 

I think EPO will lead the charge later in January, followed eventually by AO and NAO.

The PNA may be a struggle the rest of the way...

[Torch Tiger]

Maybe, just maybe next weeks system can drop a respectable snow

[Typhoon Tip]

2015 looked pretty bad on January 2nd that year.  

Granted...the global indicator may or may not bear any sort of resemblance leading, but sufficed it is to say...

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Course .. for me, if we get to Feb 10 and we're still playin' around with the denial of butt-bang game ...I'm out - screw it.  Winter can go f' it'self.     

Time will tell..  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Course .. for me, if we get to Feb 10 and we're still playin' around with the denial of butt-bang game ...I'm out - screw it.  Winter can go f' it'self.     

Time will tell..  

 

Yea, you cheer on summer fare once light fall rates succumb to growing solar irradiance on car tops...well documented-

Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you cheer on summer fare once light fall rates succumb to growing solar irradiance on car tops...well documented-

Lol

And I don't deny that   

Look ...I'm not insensitive to the notion that others get desperate and feel the sun coming back as a reason for urgency because ... they may even carry on with that negative-variation of S.A.D. that's recently identified by the psycho-babble sciences... who knows.  That is why I always qualify that with  "if you ask me" tropes or those like that, because I'm trying to make it clear, I don't like winter in March and April; that, and, I don't wish to troll the matter, either. It doesn't matter though.. .people are unfair and still think you are, because it's all about them so your the asshole if you don't relate to their own baggage.

In fact, I f'ing ass loathe winter by March.  Probably because I DON'T carry on with neggie S.A.D. variances... nor, that lesser newer form of psychotropic drama addiction that I feel is real - it relates to that recent 60 minutes expose' on the subject matter.   I suggest a lot of the depression in summer from those the spend so much time in here seeking whatever they are, ISN'T negative S.A.D. so much: it's just a loss of that excitement circuitry/addiction at those times of year...  What can I say. Get other hobbies and reasons to love and embrace life man  -

There's a lot a stuff there... but for some reason - and there frankly has to be one rooted in logic - there is a concentration of individuals in here that don't like summer.  Forget the reason why...   I accept that... and try to be sensitive to it by employing the qualifying tropes, but even that's not enough.  People are so incensed by it the loss of cold and dark and the advent of sun and warmth, they actually cannot allow even the qualifiers - they just demonize anyone outside their own misery as dyckheads ... Oh well... 

Anyway, that's just the concentration in this social -media bastion.  90% of the society would rather it be 80/60 with picturesque CBs on the horizon...  blankets, wine, fine cheese and a hot girlfriend in a field of waving wild flowers ... and the kiss of angel song on the wind.   Not cryo death and darkness....  it's just the way the world is...  Thank god the internet has arrived, and provided these cultural islands where special interest groups can be purified - at long last.  We've found one another!  haha. 

Anyway, me and my shit turns on and off really fast?  If we get four days in the late 60s on January 20th thaw... I could dust hands and walk away, too.  Get a big whiplash bomb on the 25th, I'm right back in the fray of the fun.  Once the futility kicks in though ... mid February, save some rare years where fortune enables deniability ... I just can't help but think winter can tussle all it wants, July is still standing by. 

 

[Hoth]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Course .. for me, if we get to Feb 10 and we're still playin' around with the denial of butt-bang game ...I'm out - screw it.  Winter can go f' it'self.     

Time will tell..  

 

2011-12 was at least mercifully obliging in that regard. 70s and low 80s in early March, replete with budding trees and girls in sun dresses on the Common, really did much to dispel the macabre sensibility of that winter. 

[512high]

Is the "Wednesday" event still showing signs of life or gone? 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, Hoth said:

2011-12 was at least mercifully obliging in that regard. 70s and low 80s in early March, replete with budding trees and girls in sun dresses on the Common, really did much to dispel the macabre sensibility of that winter. 

Oh yeah...that was a dream scape incarnate...  man. 

Actually, there was another year where April was pretty balmy back then... earlier. Wanna say aught-9 or 10 perhaps.   We had the March floods in 10 then I think April came along with an unusual dearth of BD fronts and that kept it tepid, and then in May we popped a 95 day in a long stretch of ridic warmth, one that even ended with a supercell over Middlesex Co that flickered continuous lighting underneath a full moon as it swept clean to the southern horizon - never saw a specter like that sky to earth...   Good era for springs in there. 

That's ancient history.  Funny...a co-worker and I were just musing about that at lunch, how it's been a number of years since we've had that kind of balmy spring.  What's interesting - if fair to mention - is despite some of these rancid springs, we've actually had some bizarre early heat ... Remember February a couple clicks ago, we had a run in the 80s ... then, snow storms in March that I loathed and despised ...  But we also had a March warm spell one year, also touching 80 ...  both those years witnessed recidivism back into winter crime... and I consider 42 F mist for two weeks in May murder!   

Suppose that type of spring you're citing there is too exceptionally rare to ever expect that. It's the antithesis of 1995 front loaded winter.  There's a reason there's only be one or two of them in the memories of those alive. 

We still get 40 to 45 days to make this fugger work this year... Then I'm out.  In that time... yee haw... ya.. Boo ya... I'm all in ... let's do it.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, 512high said:

Is the "Wednesday" event still showing signs of life or gone? 

Most modeling have a system moving through just not great agreement on track and strength.

[MJOatleast7]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh yeah...that was a dream scape incarnate...  man. 

Actually, there was another year where April was pretty balmy back then... earlier. Wanna say aught-9 or 10 perhaps.   We had the March floods in 10 then I think April came along with an unusual dearth of BD fronts and that kept it tepid, and then in May we popped a 95 day in a long stretch of ridic warmth, one that even ended with a supercell over Middlesex Co that flickered continuous lighting underneath a full moon as it swept clean to the southern horizon - never saw a specter like that sky to earth...   Good era for springs in there. 

That's ancient history.  Funny...a co-worker and I were just musing about that at lunch, how it's been a number of years since we've had that kind of balmy spring.  What's interesting - if fair to mention - is despite some of these rancid springs, we've actually had some bizarre early heat ... Remember February a couple clicks ago, we had a run in the 80s ... then, snow storms in March that I loathed and despised ...  But we also had a March warm spell one year, also touching 80 ...  both those years witnessed recidivism back into winter crime... and I consider 42 F mist for two weeks in May murder!   

Suppose that type of spring you're citing there is too exceptionally rare to ever expect that. It's the antithesis of 1995 front loaded winter.  There's a reason there's only be one or two of them in the memories of those alive. 

We still get 40 to 45 days to make this fugger work this year... Then I'm out.  In that time... yee haw... ya.. Boo ya... I'm all in ... let's do it.   

Anecdotally and to some degree backed by actual data...is that a good predictor of early heat in spring...and maybe the following summer...is a true ratter winter like 2001-02 and 2011-12. 2001-02 was followed by 89F (BOS) on the last day of March and 93F on April 17 (although that was the day of the infamous undular cold bore/BD that capsized boats in Boston Harbor and caused a 40 F drop in a few hours) 2011-12 had 3 days of 100+ centered on July 22 featuring the second-highest reading ever at BOS (103F)

Time will tell if this winter rats out and maintains the correlation (if there is one) in an early/hot spring (though not immune to raging BD reversals) but what 2001-02 and 2011-12 had that this season doesn't have (so far) is a wicked cold NE PAC. So this may not be a third example.

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh yeah...that was a dream scape incarnate...  man. 

Actually, there was another year where April was pretty balmy back then... earlier. Wanna say aught-9 or 10 perhaps.   We had the March floods in 10 then I think April came along with an unusual dearth of BD fronts and that kept it tepid, and then in May we popped a 95 day in a long stretch of ridic warmth, one that even ended with a supercell over Middlesex Co that flickered continuous lighting underneath a full moon as it swept clean to the southern horizon - never saw a specter like that sky to earth...   Good era for springs in there. 

That's ancient history.  Funny...a co-worker and I were just musing about that at lunch, how it's been a number of years since we've had that kind of balmy spring.  What's interesting - if fair to mention - is despite some of these rancid springs, we've actually had some bizarre early heat ... Remember February a couple clicks ago, we had a run in the 80s ... then, snow storms in March that I loathed and despised ...  But we also had a March warm spell one year, also touching 80 ...  both those years witnessed recidivism back into winter crime... and I consider 42 F mist for two weeks in May murder!   

Suppose that type of spring you're citing there is too exceptionally rare to ever expect that. It's the antithesis of 1995 front loaded winter.  There's a reason there's only be one or two of them in the memories of those alive. 

We still get 40 to 45 days to make this fugger work this year... Then I'm out.  In that time... yee haw... ya.. Boo ya... I'm all in ... let's do it.   

Remember the back door with temperatures remaining in the 70s at Logan.  That’s how you know you’re living large....late March door and 74 degrees out...

[MJOatleast7]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Remember the back door with temperatures remaining in the 70s at Logan.  That’s how you know you’re living large....late March door and 74 degrees out...

Also (may have been the same event) March 2012, when the NStar transformer blew on Scotia St in the Back Bay and we all walked around a darkened Boston in shirt sleeves.

[tamarack]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Remember the back door with temperatures remaining in the 70s at Logan.  That’s how you know you’re living large....late March door and 74 degrees out...

Coastal sites don't even need a BD for crazy temp swings (in this case, upward) - early in April 2010 a wind shift from E to SW rocketed temps in PWM from 59 to 84 in 15 minutes.