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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thicknesses crash at that time.

 

I hope so.  Nice look for Central folks.  I need an excuse for a Pit2 trip. 

15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I wouldn't say that system worked out at all, I rained and rained for 36 hours.  It was awful and we had fog Monday and Tuesday.

If we need to wait on starting threads for you to get snow, we'll wind up with one threat thread a season.  :)

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59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol at the superstition, I started the one on the 30th-31st on the 26th and that one worked out fine.

 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

lol at the superstition, I started the one on the 30th-31st on the 26th and that one worked out fine.

It’s bad luck to be superstitious. 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One thing I've been noticing about the difference between the Euro and the GFS is ...

The GFS has internal destructive wave interference over the TV...centered roughly on 84 hours off the 06z ( to exemplify the point), but has been carrying on with that contention for many runs.

The Euro seems to be smoothing and/or not just disagreeing that will be the case.  The differences parlay ... The Euro then goes on to having more of a 'slug' of DPVA and total mechanics for quicker cyclogen and is thus cooling the column quicker.  Contrasting, and despite the GFS' seeing this as a bomb a week and a half ago ( haha ), the GFS' negates that look and it's resultant low weaker and faster. 

Great post. I flagged 12z Saturday in my AM blog as the crucial point that the EURO phases that system, and other guidance as of 00z last night, failed to do so as proficiently. Transent ridging over intermountain west aids that.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It might be that the Euro is just phasing the remnant ejected western trough more proficiently with that piece of late ejected more polar stream mechanics coming SE through the Plains there at 72 hours.

The GFS dives the wind max into that region there, and then the two cancel out, and the trough remains neutral/positive slope and thus....weaker for whatever it goes on to create.  The Euro just seems to phase that more proper like, opting for more constructive wave interference/interaction ... interesting.

Yes.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great post. I flagged 12z Saturday in my AM blog as the crucial point that the EURO phases that system, and other guidance as of 00z last night, failed to do so as proficiently. Transent ridging over intermountain west aids that.

Seems to be maintaining that gestalt in this run, too.

It may still have some intra-trough contention... not truly ideally phasing and whatever, but it definitely is more proficiently smoothing out the wave interactivity in a more harmonious fusion. We can see...that escaping near bomb is a result of that -

As I was mentioning in the other thread ... I think the Euro being inside of D4 while the UKMET leaned in with a campaign contribution are red flags for something more than the GFS.  Which frankly, the GFS's speed obsession ...it might not be the best model for these subsume scenarios... even when/in the partial sense, it'll always end up in a lesser proficient paradigm.

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In the spirit of transparency, the 12Z EPS was slightly less hostile in the 11-15 day. Obviously it could and will a oscillate. It had some ridging build deeper into AK which in turned appeared to plunge the come more SE. If we are going to have a dateline ridge, you want ridging into Santa‘s fanny. That will help limit SE ridging. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

In the spirit of transparency, the 12Z EPS was slightly less hostile in the 11-15 day. Obviously it could and will a oscillate. It had some ridging build deeper into AK which in turned appeared to plunge the come more SE. If we are going to have a dateline ridge, you want ridging into Santa‘s fanny. That will help limit SE ridging. 

The GEFS at 18z kinda showed this at the end of the run too....maybe the thaw will end up being 2 weeks instead of 4?

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