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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The main hope now is that the ECMWF MJO forecast is wrong because if it’s not we might have a window 1/8-1/20 and then it’s gonna be over for 2-3 weeks again 

The western IO region will persist. Looks like we have a decent January if MJO is right, after first week.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I wouldn’t hold my breath on any sustained blocking....that’s been like Voo-Doo since March of 18; but I’ll take some Well timed transient blocking to help us out when the systems roll through.  

Yea, always dangerous to pin hopes on a sustained March 2018 block, but even just some transient and well timed ridge nodes in the right spots can do the trick. Judging from my analog composite, we should at least pull that off.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, always dangerous to pin hopes on a sustained March 2018 block, but even just some transient and well timed ridge nodes in the right spots can do the trick. Judging from my analog composite, we should at least pull that off.

I hate timing nodes to poke in the right places. 

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Mm... I wouldn't be presuming anything has be after January's first week - don't have to look far for the advisability of doing that, this winter storm ( hello ) happening in an utter dearth of antecedent teleconnector suggestion.  Jesus -

That said, ...yeeeah, it's looking pretty bleak if one employs the American indices ( ha).  Ugh.  In fact, winter over. Haven't seen a signal that bad since the infamous early January of 2007...

That said, the D6-10 EPS would argue for a better winter appeal over the U.S.. not sure how well that is teleconnected to the rest of the hemisphere, but that's a very cold look at 240 in that blended mean.  The operational not really being an extreme outlier, is actually a sign that the signal may be potent - if perhaps counter intuitive.  The impetus being, the mean is always banal compared to the individual member so not seeing that means the weight/correction vector may be toward more amplitude. 

anyway, it's not as discouraging as the American cluster is all. Huh ...but just looking at the CDC my god.  You'd have think the ensemble system is just f'ed up and broke, and needs to be emptied and reset or something.  Hard to believe every domain space is biased the same direction - that's really almost pushing physics.

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