Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,585
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The 12z GFS is heading towards warning snows in CNE/NNE, Still warm for SNE but it’s making the right steps.

Yeah trended south. Still pretty hideous verbatim outside of powderfreak to Rangeley axis but hopefully a few more ticks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah trended south. Still pretty hideous verbatim outside of powderfreak to Rangeley axis but hopefully a few more ticks. 

Yeah, At the very least, It’s a step in the right direction as opposed to the wrong one, Like to see it continue, Pretty potent SLP being modeled on some guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh well, we have at least another 2 days before the models get a clue as that backside energy will help determine the outcome at the surface.  That northern stream h5 low that dives through the Midwest and Northern Plains into the backside of the longwave trough will help determine where we end up, the intensity and timing of that system will help figure out the results.  Friday 12z runs we should have a better idea and consensus track and intensity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still looks like wave interference to me ... GGEM just doing it's best to resolve 120 kts of mid level rage while having two S/W in discrete spacing vying for dominance in that trough.

Same thing in GFS....  it's just it's rendition of the resulting low - it's dice rolling among these runs until one of two things happens:  either it phase more purely like the Euro.... or, they just neggie interfere and the Euro is wrong, and what materializes ends up being a cyclonic smear that shears out to sea into oblivion - thanks for playing the 'hopes up for no reason game' ;)

It's gamble which way to go.  haha.  No but the GGEM and GFS have intra-wave space interference f'n around with their respective total deep layer results. If the Euro arrives unraveled like these busted ravioli solutions, then I'd save your sanity and 86 the whole thing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is near the BM too FWIW. 

 Is there any cold air available for the most part?  Lousy air mass no matter the track, no?  Maybe a little on the back end, but we know how those work must of the time(last 20 minutes of the precip the cold/column cools enough, and then bang its over lol). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I would wait another 24 hours.  Not real confident on this system until that northern branch disturbance makes it closer to the US/Canada border in MT.  I would give it 24 hours, 12z tomorrow.

every model is showing some event for NNE/CNE/SNE, not sure how much confidence we need but it's all good.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...