CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Yeah congrats freak and NNE on that one. I wouldn't mind a white landscape though. An inch or two would make me happy, but it's questionable for my hood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Bring it on....... .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to pass south of New England Friday and into the Gulf of Maine by Sunday. This system could deliver a wintry mix to the region with an outside chance of significant snowfall Saturday night and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 No press, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: No press, ftl. Already given up on your " look on the bright side" resolution? That didn't take long... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 HYE ya'll.. How 'bout this guy, GFS' member P006 ( 00Z) ...with a torqued CCB around the west side drillin' b-ward conditions through central zones, up through eastern VT/NH and ME There were other members that were almost this impressive too... I'd count, maybe 5.25 members if I were trying to be objective but there's a gradation with the weaker ones, and none have no low pressure concern at all. So, overall, I'd say that's > 50% confidence for something by a goodly margin. The amplitude is intriguing... Does anyone have that URL handy, where you can enter a date and it has the model run ? Or am I imagining such an availability is out there - I'm curious because I can swear, I recall the GFS having a solution like this above or thereabouts...some 10 days ago. Then, it smeared it into a Lakes Cutter, at other times, just a big bag of amorphous/weak LP with QPF non-committal ever since. Seeing these runs not "maybe" formulating a consensus on this thing, maybe isn't without precedence - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: HYE ya'll.. How 'bout this guy, GFS' member P006 ( 00Z) ...with a torqued CCB around the west side drillin' b-ward conditions through central zones, up through eastern VT/NH and ME There were other members that were almost this impressive two... I'd count, maybe 5.25 members if I were trying to be objective but there's a gradation with the weaker ones, and none have no low pressure concern at all. So, overall, I'd say that's > 50% confidence for something by a goodly margin. The amplitude is intriguing... Does anyone have that URL handy, where you can enter a date and it has the model run ? Or am I imagining such an availability is out there - I'm curious because I can swear, I recall the GFS having a solution like this above or thereabouts...some 10 days ago. Then, it smeared it into a Lakes Cutter, at other times, just a big bag of amorphous/weak LP with QPF non-committal ever since. Seeing these runs not "maybe" formulating a consensus on this thing, maybe isn't without precedence - Happy Hew Year Tip and others,is this Sat/Sun? Just waking up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The 12z Nam would work for some in CNE/NNE but its the Nam at the end of its run so caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: HYE ya'll.. How 'bout this guy, GFS' member P006 ( 00Z) ...with a torqued CCB around the west side drillin' b-ward conditions through central zones, up through eastern VT/NH and ME There were other members that were almost this impressive too... I'd count, maybe 5.25 members if I were trying to be objective but there's a gradation with the weaker ones, and none have no low pressure concern at all. So, overall, I'd say that's > 50% confidence for something by a goodly margin. The amplitude is intriguing... Does anyone have that URL handy, where you can enter a date and it has the model run ? Or am I imagining such an availability is out there - I'm curious because I can swear, I recall the GFS having a solution like this above or thereabouts...some 10 days ago. Then, it smeared it into a Lakes Cutter, at other times, just a big bag of amorphous/weak LP with QPF non-committal ever since. Seeing these runs not "maybe" formulating a consensus on this thing, maybe isn't without precedence - The Christmas Day happy hour GFS had a sub-940 low off Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Where is my 936 low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is my 936 low. It is a good reminder that when models show a big system that typically you can bet on some form of measurable precip. This case happens to still be a low progged to take a decent track vs. a fropa but you get my point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is my 936 low. Stuffed in your Christmas stocking that Santa never delivered...back in the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Why is Cranky talking about 50’s and 60’s later this week? https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1212381092260569088?s=21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 There is a presence of a ridge out west, far enough west to get an amplified system to move through the region. Problem becomes lack of a cold source and a true arctic source of cold air present for an all out snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 NAM would prob be pretty interesting for SNE too if it went out further. Def want to see another south bump on the 12z suite for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is my 936 low. Oh yeah! right - that's the one, but I was actually thinking back to before even that... Of course, the GFS goes out to the edge of time and space, so - The 5th has been signaled for trough intrusion through the ambient SE ridge ( at least attempted) the whole way though.. That's probably the "what the models are really for" practical intent, and thus...take away - but obviously, these tools are used for people's psychotropic entertainment addiction in here, so are not judged accordingly... I mean, if one wants to be objective about it, and not just being snarky ( like I just did ) out of hand, there's intrinsic value in the low being there, not the details of it. But that's just me I guess... Come circa Sunday night..I'm beginning to wonder if we will at that time be two events through otherwise gloomy two week relaxation of misery. Ha ha. Maybe we'll be saying something like, " Outside of this mid week, looks like a tough stretch coming up..." Then, next Friday arrives three successfully entertaining events logged, and we'll be saying ... " Outside of this early next week, looks like a tough stretch coming up" ..etc In fact, I'm growing increasingly confident that we are seeing an emergent property in the 50 to 60th latitudes over N/A that is actually a cold feed-back at larger synoptic scales, from this expanded HC business. What the latter may be doing is helping to enhancing the tendencies for confluence as that aggressively abuts the N/Stream, and so we end up with the polar highs and big thermal slope events with warm air at mid levels. It seems there is an abnormally large plethora of those being shredded out by the GFS in the guidance's behavior... more so as we've gotten into the middle(er) part of winter here. Seems it has a D11 ice storm on every other run. But more importantly, these highs in southern Canada are not being handled well at longer ranges ( D6 or7 + ), and thus, the models "tend" to only see SE ridging at those times. The other aspect when comparing the EPS to the GEFs, .. I'm seeing both means playing into their own bias some...The Euro's cluster is a bit too deep in the SW ...and that small amount of feed-back then gets ballooned when it dumps L-h into the ridging and it's being exaggerated. The GFS stretches things too much, ...if not, moves too fast in its progressivity tendency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 GFS shows mid 40s for CHH on Saturday, but the cold arrives on Sunday and lasts the next few days. At least according to the 00z GFS MOS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM would prob be pretty interesting for SNE too if it went out further. Def want to see another south bump on the 12z suite for snow chances. I agree Will, I really like the amped solutions, question is, is there enough of a push southward for the amped H5 low to move south and east of CHH, not overhead or west of CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why is Cranky talking about 50’s and 60’s later this week? https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1212381092260569088?s=21 Likely still drunk. What is showing 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Likely still drunk. What is showing 60s? Lol. I don’t see anything showing anything like that . That may have happened if it cut, but now we’re talking snow and he’s talking torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. I don’t see anything showing anything like that Maybe Sat tickles 50 before the front but pretty much U30s/L40s. Not that it matters really, nothing OTG to protect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM would prob be pretty interesting for SNE too if it went out further. Def want to see another south bump on the 12z suite for snow chances. One thing I've been noticing about the difference between the Euro and the GFS is ... The GFS has internal destructive wave interference over the TV...centered roughly on 84 hours off the 06z ( to exemplify the point), but has been carrying on with that contention for many runs. The Euro seems to be smoothing and/or not just disagreeing that will be the case. The differences parlay ... The Euro then goes on to having more of a 'slug' of DPVA and total mechanics for quicker cyclogen and is thus cooling the column quicker. Contrasting, and despite the GFS' seeing this as a bomb a week and a half ago ( haha ), the GFS' negates that look and it's resultant low weaker and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is my 936 low. Lesser Antilles, next August. Good to see an active start to the year after a sort-of-Grinch for Christmas. (No rainer but some snow-settling temps and lots of meh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe Sat tickles 50 before the front but pretty much U30s/L40s. Not that it matters really, nothing OTG to protect. Got an inch of ice pack here, but it’s not going to be a pack fetish pattern the next few weeks. It’ll be more stat padders like a Morch snow . Melts the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 It might be that the Euro is just phasing the remnant ejected western trough more proficiently with that piece of late ejected more polar stream mechanics coming SE through the Plains there at 72 hours. The GFS dives the wind max into that region there, and then the two cancel out, and the trough remains neutral/positive slope and thus....weaker for whatever it goes on to create. The Euro just seems to phase that more proper like, opting for more constructive wave interference/interaction ... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Very poor teleconnection in Jan can work for us, bc “poor” also means less “north/south” phasing of jets, and a chunk of the sub forum ends up on the cold side of the southern Jet, due largely to climo and a progressive flow. The in-situ cold in NNE and southern QC is sufficient for future snow, while the snowcover in the region aids in reinforcing climo. This is a setup for CNE and NNE to do quite well, especially the resorts while SNE really struggles. I suspect I’ll be on/very near the margin. Thinking the next 10-14 days looks a lot like this graphic in terms of heaviest snows/ and frozen/rain gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 FU pope. I rescind my Catholicism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 icon interesting as always.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: One thing I've been noticing about the difference between the Euro and the GFS is ... The GFS has internal destructive wave interference over the TV...centered roughly on 84 hours off the 06z ( to exemplify the point), but has been carrying on with that contention for many runs. The Euro seems to be smoothing and/or not just disagreeing that will be the case. The differences parlay ... The Euro then goes on to having more of a 'slug' of DPVA and total mechanics for quicker cyclogen and is thus cooling the column quicker. Contrasting, and despite the GFS' seeing this as a bomb a week and a half ago ( haha ), the GFS' negates that look and it's resultant low weaker and faster. If there's one thing I can't stand, it's internal destructive wave interference. 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Very poor teleconnection in Jan can work for us, bc “poor” also means less “north/south” phasing of jets, and a chunk of the sub forum ends up on the cold side of the southern Jet, due largely to climo and a progressive flow. The in-situ cold in NNE and southern QC is sufficient for future snow, while the snowcover in the region aids in reinforcing climo. This is a setup for CNE and NNE to do quite well, especially the resorts while SNE really struggles. I suspect I’ll be on/very near the margin. Thinking the next 10-14 days looks a lot like this graphic in terms of heaviest snows/ and frozen/rain gradients. Well, that would suck for a bunch of us. On another subject, I just watched Two Popes last night (highly recommend). I couldn't help but think of you whenever they showed Anthony Hopkins. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: If there's one thing I can't stand, it's internal destructive wave interference. Well, that would suck for a bunch of us. On another subject, I just watched Two Popes last night (highly recommend). I couldn't help but think of you whenever they showed Anthony Hopkins. Haven’t seen it...But Anthony Hopkins has 50 years on me.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Feb is going to rock! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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