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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's different with troughing out west though. These + busts may be harder to come by. I'm just being realistic. You have a better shot of hoping for a sneaky HP overrunning deal.

OP Euro looks warm but the EPS and other guidance is actually offshore with that threat. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Sort of Kev. The progressive nature of the pattern sort of squashes the ULL and causes a more elongated piece of vorticity that goes over and east of us. It's sort of a thread the needle...but maybe an inch or two possible. We'll see what 12z brings. 

Need the PNA ridge...ruins what could have been a blizzard. Inconsequential mixed mess likely.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS does look good for Sat nite 

DcvOOGq.png

If that ULL stays closed less than 534 right below us, one bite everyone knows the rules. And the 7th 8th is definitely not off the table. So one week, 2 threats. Next week after we ridge and dry. Thats how I read it. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This weekend is congrats powderfreak. We can maybe get a couple down here. I actually don't hate the 1/8 threat....I think op euro is too amped. 

I looked at the "cluster" graphics that Ventrice has for the ensembles. The 8th is all over the place from a GFS flat look, to the euro op, to offshore. I guess the good news is that the op run appeared to be on the warmest camp..like 20% of members. 

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