WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything tossed 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see any way next weekend is snow Lol....This weekend you were so sure this was a big hit(Dec 92 similarities and all), when there were clear signs it wasn't gonna be. Now you're doing the reverse Psych act for next weekend lol. I guess the previous positive/big snower act didn't work, so go with the negative/reverse psychology idea on this one. You'll get it right eventually. But Next Sunday/ Monday is a long shot too...so keep the expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 After the zamboni storm comes through we'll be tracking some nice cool dry wx with hopes of some pond hockey. Winter is the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 People have been dropping thru shady ice left and right this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: People have been dropping thru shady ice left and right this past week. Must be larger lakes? I saw people out ice fishing back in December and this week has been colder with temps in the single numbers almost every night. I haven't been by those places since then but I would have thought that the ice would be OK after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Kevin drops some red meat and wolfie can’t help devouring it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Kevin drops some red meat and wolfie can’t help devouring it.... Wolves do love red meat though....so hard to blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Must be larger lakes? I saw people out ice fishing back in December and this week has been colder with temps in the single numbers almost every night. I haven't been by those places since then but I would have thought that the ice would be OK after this week. Look for yourself. I don't think so. https://boston.cbslocal.com/video/4413300-man-and-dog-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-into-sterling-pond/ https://www.wcvb.com/article/2-teenagers-rescued-from-taunton-river-after-falling-through-ice/30648071 https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/teen-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-westborough/613/ https://www.necn.com/news/local/young-child-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-in-maine/2212389/ https://whdh.com/news/elderly-man-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-in-westborough-swamp/ https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/16/metro/dog-owner-rescued-bolton-pond-after-falling-through-ice/ https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2020/01/03/schools-id-boys-who-died-after-falling-through-ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I fished a smaller lake near me yesterday and found 6-7" of good ice with some junk on top. I was actually surprised how good it was. I think the warm ups make larger inconsistencies though, especially near moving water, springs, ext. You definetely have to be more careful venturing out. I know that lake well though and section I was on iced over in early Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 17 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Given how snowy it was our winter forecasts should've been pretty good. But we ended up accurately warning 91% of the warning events that occured, but falsely warned at a rate of 37%. In a winter where Boston has more snow than Farmington, and Machias more than twice as much as Fort Kent, it's no surprise that forecasting accuracy suffers a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I fished a smaller lake near me yesterday and found 6-7" of good ice with some junk on top. I was actually surprised how good it was. I think the warm ups make larger inconsistencies though, especially near moving water, springs, ext. You definetely have to be more careful venturing out. I know that lake well though and section I was on iced over in early Dec Yeah you have to be very careful about where on the ice you are. There was a pretty large pond/lake near me growing up that always had a bit of a cove section that would be iced over really early and had no running water near it....that part would be safe for skating even in the garbage winters....other parts of the lake you definitely could not be on unless it had been frigid for at least a week to 10 days....so in those bad winters, you may never be safe out there. There was also some areas that had little streams and such flowing into them and those parts were also less safe. Local knowledge makes a difference for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, tamarack said: In a winter where Boston has more snow than Farmington, and Machias more than twice as much as Fort Kent, it's no surprise that forecasting accuracy suffers a bit. While somewhat true, in general the more events we have the better our stats tend to get. I can basically reverse engineer what our probability of detection should be for instrument flight rules (IFR) based on the amount of IFR conditions we experience over a period of time. Similar to snow events. The more warning events we have, the better our detection rate/false alarm should be. Individual events can throw that off because a single winter isn't a large sample size of course. Valentine's Day did a number on us, as well as the events in December. But we did well during November and the late January Scooter's Revenge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: While somewhat true, in general the more events we have the better our stats tend to get. I can basically reverse engineer what our probability of detection should be for instrument flight rules (IFR) based on the amount of IFR conditions we experience over a period of time. Similar to snow events. The more warning events we have, the better our detection rate/false alarm should be. Individual events can throw that off because a single winter isn't a large sample size of course. Valentine's Day did a number on us, as well as the events in December. But we did well during November and the late January Scooter's Revenge event. I was checking forecasts for that one from SNJ where we were visiting family, and seem to recall that So. Franklin was in the 8-12 zone and we got a dense cold 20", though that 'cast may not have been the latest pre-arrival update - was using a borrowed laptop that wasn't always free for use. Anyway, that storm was the most powerful January blizzard to hit my at-the-time current residence in my lifetime - only the JFK inaugural storm (NNJ) comes close - and all I got to do was snowblow the driveway as we got home about 12 hours after final flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Look for yourself. I don't think so. https://boston.cbslocal.com/video/4413300-man-and-dog-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-into-sterling-pond/ https://www.wcvb.com/article/2-teenagers-rescued-from-taunton-river-after-falling-through-ice/30648071 https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/teen-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-westborough/613/ https://www.necn.com/news/local/young-child-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-in-maine/2212389/ https://whdh.com/news/elderly-man-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-in-westborough-swamp/ https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/16/metro/dog-owner-rescued-bolton-pond-after-falling-through-ice/ https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2020/01/03/schools-id-boys-who-died-after-falling-through-ice To be fair, many of those are from before this past week. Also, one was someone on a river and another was someone walking through a swamp. You need really cold conditions for a long while to freeze a swamp and even then I've felt soft ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you have to be very careful about where on the ice you are. There was a pretty large pond/lake near me growing up that always had a bit of a cove section that would be iced over really early and had no running water near it....that part would be safe for skating even in the garbage winters....other parts of the lake you definitely could not be on unless it had been frigid for at least a week to 10 days....so in those bad winters, you may never be safe out there. There was also some areas that had little streams and such flowing into them and those parts were also less safe. Local knowledge makes a difference for sure. Yeah, I think that you have to know where you are going. Some of the stories of people going out on rivers or on larger bodies of water without knowing for sure are just sad...no need for those accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, MetHerb said: To be fair, many of those are from before this past week. Also, one was someone on a river and another was someone walking through a swamp. You need really cold conditions for a long while to freeze a swamp and even then I've felt soft ground. Well I can tell you that the bodies of water I pass daily, I would not venture out on to. None are frozen over completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Sitting at +6.0F for the month with 1 week left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Well I can tell you that the bodies of water I pass daily, I would not venture out on to. None are frozen over completely. Oh sure. I don't disagree. I just think that there are shallow, sheltered places that are probably fine though after this week but better safe than sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Sitting at +6.0F for the month with 1 week left. +4.8° here & 7th warmest January since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Barkhamsted Reservoir was completely frozen over when I went past it on Wednesday skiing at Sundown. The ice looked thick, but cracked near the shoreline. The level fluctuates with water usage, so this wasn't suprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 that day 9 threat is now a cutter on the 12zGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Get off the Jan thread. Jan is done. 5 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: No shit. Why we talking about February in here? 6 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: that day 9 threat is now a cutter on the 12zGFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Well I can tell you that the bodies of water I pass daily, I would not venture out on to. None are frozen over completely. Lots of ice fishing around here but this week has also been very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Beautiful day here, still full snowcover and 46F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Martha's Pond in Enfield. Town ice skating and ice fishing pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 today not quite as perfect as two weeks ago but we take, all winter every winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 It’s been like New Diego up here this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: today not quite as perfect as two weeks ago but we take, all winter every winter I'll pass. But you're avatar entertainment continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: today not quite as perfect as two weeks ago but ill take, all winter every winter FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: FYP f'd my post you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Today was sweet. 2 weeks ago was better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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