40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Some think so some dont. Like I said you can point to a reason and the next year the same thing happens and poof. We try and fail every winter. I am totally convinced LR is voodoo for the most part. "LR is voodoo" is a copout. Its predictable, but we just aren't there yet. I think I, along with some others have held their own TBH. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "LR is voodoo" is a copout. Its predictable, but we just aren't there yet. I think I, along with some others have held their own TBH. I wouldn't say we have a great grasp on the amount that chaos factors into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "LR is voodoo" is a copout. Its predictable, but we just aren't there yet. I think I, along with some others have held their own TBH. I think it’s more of a joke vs many thinking no skill or pure voodoo. There is some skill. I know when I say it, I’m doing it in a jokingly way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 we can't even forecast a storm 7 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I wouldn't say we have a great grasp on the amount that chaos factors into it. I wouldn't, either....I said "we aren't there yet"...but I also think its possible and we are making progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "LR is voodoo" is a copout. Its predictable, but we just aren't there yet. I think I, along with some others have held their own TBH. I don't believe it is as predictable as many think. Amount of seasonal Snow is just one variable. When it gets more accurate with temps, precip and type of precip then it will be predictable Being right for the wrong reasons doesn't cut it either. Success at a high measurable rate over a decade would convince me. We are not there yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: we can't even forecast a storm 7 days out.. TBH, pinning down an individual storm track to within 50 mi at day 7 is not much easier than capturing the overall tenor of a season at few months of lead time. I mean, what you said sounds viscerally logical, until you actually think about it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't believe it is aspredictable as many think. Amount of seasonal Snow is just one variable. When it gets more accurate with temps, precip and type of precip then it will be predictable Being right for the wrong reasons doesn't cut it either. Success at a high measurable rate over a decade would convince me. We are not there yet. You pretty much echoed what I just said. We aren't there yet, but I see progress...both personally, and professionally, where it actually matters. Totally agree on right for the wrong reason, but I also feel like missing with respect to one index is different than missing on everything..I think we just need to acknowledge the error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Does anyone have the euro control from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't believe it is as predictable as many think. Amount of seasonal Snow is just one variable. When it gets more accurate with temps, precip and type of precip then it will be predictable Being right for the wrong reasons doesn't cut it either. Success at a high measurable rate over a decade would convince me. We are not there yet. We have some skill. I don’t have the stats to back it up, but it seems like lately we have a lot of volatility vs like pre 2015. I think 15-16 was the last real successful call that I can remember, but we also know it was a strong nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Does anyone have the euro control from 12z? It shows 5” of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: We have some skill. I don’t have the stats to back it up, but it seems like lately we have a lot of volatility vs like pre 2015. I think 15-16 was the last real successful call that I can remember, but we also know it was a strong nino. Sure when you get one overwhelming signal it's easier but when it's the normally mixed signals, all bets are off. I am not speaking of just the Northeast either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Does anyone have the euro control from 12z? Subscribe to weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Sure when you get one overwhelming signal it's easier but when it's the normally mixed signals, all bets are off. I am not speaking of just the Northeast either. Tough pill for me to swallow blowing 2015-16, aside from getting the blizzard right...missed a hanging curve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Sure when you get one overwhelming signal it's easier but when it's the normally mixed signals, all bets are off. I am not speaking of just the Northeast either. Neither am I. More or less the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Subscribe to weathermodels.com I don’t have money like that I was asking for a favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: I don’t have money like that I was asking for a favor Pivotalwx.com? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I don’t have money like that I was asking for a favor 10 bucks a month, 33 cents a day. 3 dunkin donut coffees. Why in Gods name would you want the control run anyways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I think there is a difference between calling for 2009-2010-verifying 2011-2012, and calling for big NAO/AO blocking, but getting big EPO blocking instead. I don't think the latter is a total whiff, as there is something to be said for accurately predicting a seasonal proclivity for energy transfer into the polar domain. I just think its important to note that in hindsight, and not Judah everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 bucks a month, 33 cents a day. 3 dunkin donut coffees. Why in Gods name would you want the control run anyways. Cause I heard it was a weenie run. I’m just going to make an account if that cheap and cancel in april thank you guys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been like pulling teeth with the NAO to go negative. We’ve had brief stretches (hell a month in 2018), but it’s been all out positive overall as you said. At some point it will turn around though. Just like our stretch of favorable PAC regimes will turn too and possibly become more unfavorable. How strong is the correlation between ENSO and the NAO/AO? Seems like weak ENSO events (Niña or Niño) are more volatile and could go either way. Perhaps the lack of Atlantic blocking in recent years could be attributed to sea ice loss in the summer and heat release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cause I heard it was a weenie run. I’m just going to make an account if that cheap and cancel in april thank you guys weather.us has the control and every eps member for free. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I’ll lock in the two footer on the gfs next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ll lock in the two footer on the gfs next weekend When you positive it's cup half full! I just need to see some model consistency with W ridge placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Man I am not convinced this winter will be better than last winter here. It is possible that we end up with less snow. However, 11" is quite easy to beat given I am at 7.45" right now. We just need 4" more. I think March will be a snow filled month with several large blizzards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man I am not convinced this winter will be better than last winter here. It is possible that we end up with less snow. However, 11" is quite easy to beat given I am at 7.45" right now. We just need 4" more. I think March will be a snow filled month with several large blizzards. Lol nothing like saying one thing(saying you may end up with less snow) then saying the exact opposite in the same post(Several large blizzards in March). #inconsistentjames 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Lol nothing like saying one thing(saying you may end up with less snow) then saying the exact opposite in the same post(Several large blizzards in March). #inconsistentjames Lol, yes that was me being a moron and an emotional weather enthusiast who wants to see amazing snowstorms, but the norm is against that happening especially for my neighborhood. So I should be more realistic in my ideology 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Lol, yes that was me being a moron and an emotional weather enthusiast who wants to see amazing snowstorms, but the norm is against that happening especially for my neighborhood. So I should be more realistic in my ideology say this to yourself every time before you post, every...single...time! Until you move to Stowe or Northern NH or ME, where you might actually get the amount of snow you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 So gfs big interior snows, cmc whiffs, and euro splits the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So gfs big interior snows, cmc whiffs, and euro splits the difference. Euro has 2 coastal potentials. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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