HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I'd prefer elevation for this one as currently modeled but lat/long will certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 54 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track The end of February 2010 storm, I believe it was the 25th-26th, Hunter received five feet, give or take a few inches, from that storm. A buddy of mine skiing there at the time and skies most of the northeast said it was the most snow he's ever seen otg at base level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: True. We’ll see how it shakes out. What I said wasn’t false though. The storm itself wasn’t as impressive, from a collective standpoint. I’m not going to argue rain snow lines 6 days out Nor am I going to quibble over intensity nuances on a deterministic solution. Same idea RE general storm evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'd prefer elevation for this one as currently modeled but lat/long will certainly help. I'd prefer a combination.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 GEFS look identical to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 GEM ensemble trended a hair north over OH...not what we wanted to see. Confluence backed off a bit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Not all that impressed with the 00z suite so far. GFS was a good storm inland but it had a more progressive look to everything...which was probably a good thing on that run because the ULL initially was pretty far west at a higher latitude...almost sitting north of PIT. That's been the theme at 00z. ULL is too far north & west for my liking....still pending euro suite though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not all that impressed with the 00z suite so far. GFS was a good storm inland but it had a more progressive look to everything...which was probably a good thing on that run because the ULL initially was pretty far west at a higher latitude...almost sitting north of PIT. That's been the theme at 00z. ULL is too far north & west for my liking....still pending euro suite though. I didn't see that on the GEFS mean...GEM ens mean, I did...nothing drastic, but north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't see that on the GEFS mean...GEM ens mean, I did...nothing drastic, but north... GEFS mean was already bringing the ULL in at a decently north trajectory and we didn't get any help. I agree it didn't change much from 18z mean, but we want that to trend toward the EPS. Ukie looked like crap though we don't get ensembles for it. OP Euro is actually looking pretty good track-wise here at 00z for interior SNE. Wish it was a little cooler but that's pretty irrelevant at this time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Nice firehose for SNE on the 00z Euro. That's actually a pasting near BOS too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Pretty good agreement now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty good agreement now LOL, There are a lot of things to work out. I don't see much agreement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Dec 92 drums starting to bang in distance This will be a very wet system (QPF totals up to over 1" possible), and slow moving, with potential to drop a significant amount of snow in interior southern New England that would be disruptive and impactful. Stay tuned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 It did seem like a subtle trend to get the ULL north. The euro op and EPS were pretty good, but the trend was there. Another step and it's a cold rain. It's such a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 We’ll see. Nothing to sweat over yet. Another 48hrs before we narrow the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Big yawn with the 06 GFS. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Nice to see continued SE shifts EC ensemble probabilities of >1" snow continue to exhibit a SE creep over the last several model runs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice firehose for SNE on the 00z Euro. That's actually a pasting near BOS too. Everytime you post firehose I cringe.. hoping this can change a little for the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Muthafukkas still high. BOS, BED, BVY at 6 ORH at 1+6 LWM at the 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Seems like guidance across the board is a bit weaker this morning as compared to some of the runs yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Any word on the 06z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 At this stage the only importance when it comes to agreement is that there is agreement on a storm and agreement that it can be a rather significant one...when focusing on just those two aspects there is pretty decent agreement and a pretty strong signal. In terms of any agreement right now on any other aspect it's all minute and really insignificant. There are going to be subtle changes/differences over the next 72-96 hours that any agreement we see now (outside of a few features) really means nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Any word on the 06z Euro? It doesn’t go past 90 hours which would bring it to Friday afternoon 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Gyx snow probs very high for 5&6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Gyx snow probs very high for 5&6 days out What does WPC say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 This thing is looking like a hot mess and nothing good comes from that usually. Confidence low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What does WPC say? What about Cranky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Hazey said: This thing is looking like a hot mess and nothing good comes from that usually. Confidence low. Yup... and 00z on the whole did not look so good. Is what it is... still time to change things but the storm is already a needle threader, so cant really afford much back sliding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Gyx snow probs very high for 5&6 days out They are---at least up by Pit2. BOX is going hard at the mix scenrio near/south of the Pike, leaning snow Sat. night, leaning rain on Sunday. OT, Tropical Tidbits is struggling recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At this stage the only importance when it comes to agreement is that there is agreement on a storm and agreement that it can be a rather significant one...when focusing on just those two aspects there is pretty decent agreement and a pretty strong signal. In terms of any agreement right now on any other aspect it's all minute and really insignificant. There are going to be subtle changes/differences over the next 72-96 hours that any agreement we see now (outside of a few features) really means nothing. We are in ‘agreement’. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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