78Blizzard Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't like this one at all. I do. Despite what the models are showing right now, I'm feeling this one. I think in a day or so we will see positions reversed on some of those high fiving tonight and some of those singing the blues. I don't envision a tuck on this. The 18z EPS may be giving the first hints of the block to the north hanging tough and forcing this further east. We need to see a few more runs though to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Easterly flow, tucked in SLP...seems longitude will be just as important as latitude. Maybe I’m off on this? Your fired 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Easterly flow, tucked in SLP...seems longitude will be just as important as latitude. Maybe I’m off on this? They are too far south. Non starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Your fired You too. *You’re 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: You too. *You’re haha, i should slow down typing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I’d be more confident of sig. snows in upslope areas just west of Albany NY than BOS at this early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I do. Despite what the models are showing right now, I'm feeling this one. I think in a day or so we will see positions reversed on some of those high fiving tonight and some of those singing the blues. I don't envision a tuck on this. The 18z EPS may be giving the first hints of the block to the north hanging tough and forcing this further east. We need to see a few more runs though to confirm. I should have been more clear, I'm talking about this area up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I’d like to see the high keep trending in a more westward/favorable position. Need all the cold air available even if the h5 tracks S of LI. We have a shot though, and that’s good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 56 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would feel better where you are, Inland areas well away from the coast would be ok, I just don't like the lat where H5 wants to track, Then the slide ENE at the surface, I've seen this movie before. I had to re-read your post a couple times as I’m catching up bc I respect your opinion and knowledge I see you think areas in SVT SNH and Rte 2 mass elevated and inland look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: You too. *You’re I think he's a trader...they are typically bad spellers but very good at making money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I had to re-read your post a couple times as I’m catching up bc I respect your opinion and knowledge I see you think areas in SVT SNH and Rte 2 mass elevated and inland look good? Thanks, Right now, Yes, That would be my pick of an area i would favor, The biggest issue is the air mass for coastal areas, Maybe with a better HP position some of that can be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I'm liking the 1992 analog more and more actually ... From my spacial relationship observations the 500 mb wobbling around down to 528 dm looks a tad deeper as a mid-lvl system, then '92, but taking into account climo that's probably proportional. They also both taking tracks not demonstratively different to be all that distracting, while being quasi cut-off. There is also some simlarities in the mass of the +PP/orientation over eastern Ontario - at least > 50% likeness. This is in totality enough similar in my mind not to toss the notion - I mean ...not that anyone is, just sayn' But jesus christ what a run of that model... That sucker had three blockbusters... talking a lot of people going quite far toward ...shall we say, adjusting their seasonal snow fall deficits. Heh. Re the first this weekend...I'm more comfortable giving NW RI to the western subburbs of Boston as the real rain cat-paw -vs- snow transition axis when factoring for GFS bl thermal handling, and perhaps the last 6 hours then collapses SE to clock interior SE zones with CCB as it pivots out. Probably too detailed? But, I'm using basing that on this one run. I'm sure correction needs vary depending on which cycle we see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I think he's a trader...they are typically bad spellers but very good at making money. And I’m a decent speller. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d like to see the high keep trending in a more westward/favorable position. Need all the cold air available even if the h5 tracks S of LI. We have a shot though, and that’s good enough. Yeah, you do not want to rely on needing a wound up bomb dynamically cooling you. If it’s going to be a more robust high you will have a better idea by 12z Wednesday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 That PAC energy gets sampled into RAOBS on the west coast tomorrow night so i think we will start to see changes come weds of how it will get handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Also... additionally to 1992 ... I don't think 1997 on this particular arrival isn't a terrible analog either, though getting here may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Also, the individual GEFs members have had occasional bombs with this thing. The operational just hasn't put up a solution quite a vigorous, but this 18z run was about 6 mb short of nicking RI ... I still echo my sentiments from earlier that there may be minor, albeit sensitive sampling/assilation concerns as this total wave space is previously almost entirely contained over the Pac oceanic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Heady times to be bringing up some historic analogs. I would take half of either of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Heady times to be bringing up some historic analogs. I would take half of either of them. well... I don't really care about that other crap. This, is not desperately unlike either one of those two comparisons... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I want to hear Tip’s story about the flip to blizzard on campus in 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Gfs is rather unimpressive overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is rather unimpressive overall yeah, H5 did not take any positive steps, otherwise the usual ups and downs of temps and qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is rather unimpressive overall It's nice for inland areas. It did go a little east from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is rather unimpressive overall Looks good north of Boston. Sorry it blows for YBY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks good north of Boston. Sorry it blows for YBY yeah, merrimack valley north looks good, not sure my locale yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks good north of Boston. Sorry it blows for YBY Yeah... you’re riding the line on that solution. the whole storm isn’t as impressive as prior runs... coverage wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... you’re riding the line on that solution. the whole storm isn’t as impressive as prior runs... coverage wise Riding the line, regardless. Better than having the line 30mi north of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Riding the line, regardless. Better than having the line 30mi north of me. True. We’ll see how it shakes out. What I said wasn’t false though. The storm itself wasn’t as impressive, from a collective standpoint. I’m not going to argue rain snow lines 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track Mohawk Trail SP (Charlemont/Savoy border) has year round cabins if you are feeling adventurous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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