40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I still think you’re going to want some elevation with this. Whether that’s north or south of 90 or both who knows. In a marginal set up without that or some kind of insane dynamics it could be hard. Dec 92 had a similar airmass . Maybe a smidge colder Dec 92 snowed 18" in the Wilmington swamps. Latitude matters, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Delete if you want 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, Hoth said: I've been feeling a Monadnock region jack on this. I can see Monadnock from my street. Not from my house though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Delete if you want Not until you post the Kuchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't care what the verbatim output implies...I'll sell big snows here with a low over NYC in a marginal airmass. Ugly run. Yep. We ride the ensembles until day 3 or so. But it is fun to fantasize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not until you post the Kuchie. He stopped it right before the best storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dec 92 snowed 18" in the Wilmington swamps. Latitude matters, too. Also had a surface reflection off NYC in a marginal airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: He stopped it right before the best storm I take it back, it was right after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Is that a 50" isopleth in Norfolk lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Pretty much, from BOX This Weekend... The latest longer range guidance continues to depict potential for a coastal storm sometime Saturday night into Sunday night, possibly evening into Monday morning. Considerable uncertainty remains on the exact track and timing of the various components of this system, which is not all that unusual this time of year. There is rather high confidence we will see a period of measurable precipitation. Confidence is much lower on the timing and precipitation type details. Took a consensus/ensemble mean approach to smooth over the less predictable details. That pattern suggest more of a rain/snow mix across southern New England, instead of a big snowstorm for everyone. Snow more favored across the interior, especially at night. Both options remain possibilities, however. There is some blocking expected to our north, so this could be a slow- moving coastal storm. It may be Monday morning before this low pressure moves offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Also had a surface reflection off NYC in a marginal airmass http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1211.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS tries to spawn a secondary reflection over E MA to keep the flow more backed over the interior. Yeah, I know. Day 6. Basically what dec '92 did except a bit further south. Had the original sfc low tucked in over SE NJ but a secondary was spawning out southeast of the islands. With that high position though we prob know the interior will be a bit more backed than a model like the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Basically what dec '92 did except a bit further south. Had the original sfc low tucked in over SE NJ but a secondary was spawning out southeast of the islands. With that high position though we prob know the interior will be a bit more backed than a model like the GFS says. What day was that I was trying to look that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Is that a 50" isopleth in Norfolk lol. I believe it is lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Also had a surface reflection off NYC in a marginal airmass It was a little east...out on Long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Basically what dec '92 did except a bit further south. Had the original sfc low tucked in over SE NJ but a secondary was spawning out southeast of the islands. With that high position though we prob know the interior will be a bit more backed than a model like the GFS says. If I remember that one correctly, we were dumping snow in Granby and over the ridge in Bloomfield was pouring rain...iirc. We had 18 inches I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 All I remember about Dec 92 storm is driving from Thompson Ct to Southbridge Ma in my VW Golf at 11pm about 3-4” of snow on the road and limbs snapping like shotgun blast. Was thankful to have made home safely. A 25 min ride took almost an hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 42 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: What day was that I was trying to look that up? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1211.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1212.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just for ref when we compare this to 12/92 .. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Of course the only thing missing is 5-8” QPF, severe coastal flooding, and hurricane force winds. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Of course the only thing missing is 5-8” QPF, severe coastal flooding, and hurricane force winds. What’s up with the eps any change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: What’s up with the eps any change? Yes slightly flatter and east but nothing major 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course the only thing missing is 5-8” QPF, severe coastal flooding, and hurricane force winds. This shows 3-5”. I don’t recall if that one increased qpf as we got closer ? This also shows coastal flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This shows 3-5”. I don’t recall if that one increased qpf as we got closer ? This also shows coastal flooding We get flooding on clear days with astronomical high tides now. Anecdotal but it’s really ramped up in the past 3 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This shows 3-5”. I don’t recall if that one increased qpf as we got closer ? This also shows coastal flooding What shows 3-5” and CF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: What shows 3-5” and CF? KV3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I’m not saying it couldn’t slow down and cause copious amounts of precip, but it’s not nearly as impressive as ‘92. I hate when that analog is thrown around. That was a special event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 EPS looked a little better to me than 12z. Below is the comparison (12z first and 18z second) You can see it in the high position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m not saying it couldn’t slow down and cause copious amounts of precip, but it’s not nearly as impressive as ‘92. I hate when that analog is thrown around. That was a special event. I was doing my first go round in W MA back then and I don't remember that storm being very impressive but I was in Amherst so maybe it was shadow central? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 We have deep layer erly flow with the potential H5 low going under us and HP to the north. 92 had that, but it was on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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