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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is actually good continuity on the 12z GFS from 06z...Same pathway of the ULL underneath LI, but just a bit weaker of a system...noise at this range.

Some a viewing the output through IMBY goggles.

Ensembles are where it as it right now, anyway...was just curious.

i hear you, I thought esembles looked pretty good, which is what we should mostly be using 100+ hours out..

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11 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

i hear you, I thought esembles looked pretty good, which is what we should mostly be using 100+ hours out..

Yep. Esp in this setup. Ensembles are going to be the way to go for now. You can't really worry about 1-2C in the column at these time leads.

Or you can worry about them, but you scuslly have no idea how they are going to break.  

I'm mostly looking at the trend of that ULL track. We don't really want it getting north of philly when it's still out to the west over the Apps and OH/TN valley. Ray is doing the right thing in looking at the upper air there. In this scenario, ideal would be something like over the Delmarva or Philly at the most...any further north than that at that longitude is asking for trouble. It can gain some more latitude once further east and that is fine for SNE. 

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