Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 It's also still a pallid look overall.. . We need some fresh infusion of dynamics ...typically via the N/stream on the way by, and no run or model type to date appears very interested in supplying any. Otherwise, that's weak sauce - someone said a boring solution yesterday? Not my word but wondering if that's apropos at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Man, what a putrid look across the Conus. Climate modeling: spring and spring like conditions will commence earlier in earlier - heh... that oughta poke the hornet's nest... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Maybe we should let this system blow up and flip NAO for future goodness. Hopefully it works out but 12z so far (waiting on eps) hasn’t been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Climate modeling: spring and spring like conditions will commence earlier in earlier - heh... that oughta poke the hornet's nest... Seriously, looks like Spring cutoff season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Dam Hadley cell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Seriously, looks like Spring cutoff season. get spring out of the way now and have summer arrive by April 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can envision every boob in the region just sagging to ground Yeah I said that ... but, hm... The run looks a shave cooler overall, but it's still really weak. I mean this thing is acting in the runs like an early April meandering ULLs that gets over sold by mid range guidance typically. If it were April... it's January 26th at go time so - The only similarity this thing - at the moment - has comparing 1992 or 1997 is the quasi cut-off nature. Not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 don't see big changes on the EPS from 6z, anyone else seeing anything of note? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Certainly some wild, strong solutions today on 12z ops. Gina be a fun week of tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: get spring out of the way now and have summer arrive by April If it ain’t gonna snow we might as well get started on spring early. Let’s get the 2020 lawn thread started ! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 EPS is definitely more favorable vs op, especially interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: don't see big changes on the EPS from 6z, anyone else seeing anything of note? Shade warmer and west but still colder than OP. Not a huge trend but pretty much expected based on the OP run going west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Timing and storm phase/maturation are as important Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 46 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Seriously, looks like Spring cutoff season. It does ... Scott's making Hadley Cell jokes but I don't think that's this... Just my opinion, but the termination latitude appears to have receded for the time being. That factor aside, I do believe with increasing confidence, however, that it gets more difficult to maintain marginal at our latitude, comparing say...50 years ago ( during the 1970's local time scale Global cooling event...)... hell, I'd take the 1990s over this. It seems we become increasing more directly reliant upon some form of direct -EPO, or at least or ephemerally -related delivery to insert cold, or we swing and flip/bounce back proportionately warmer. We've been lucking in recent years from the NP-Lakes NE regions, with the 2013-2014 through 2016 year... and that may skew existentially what is going on. But times of fast flat and velocity saturation, marked by excessive cold along the 50th parallel, kissing tornado hodos to Indianapolis, seems to terminate out into this sort of blase thing in the middle of winter when it does more frequently, and even in this big winters there... it seems there was capacity to flip dramatically with bigger disparate air mass between warm sectors and cold sides. It's a tough argument to sell. Much in the same way the HC has an amorphous poorly distinguishable termination with the westerlies... this alteration on seasonal patterning is also more smeared ..at times grossly obviously ( like that modeled look right now..) at others, more subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly some wild, strong solutions today on 12z ops. Gina be a fun week of tracking is this a Freudian slip? - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Geeze....another one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better.... You know and ya wonder ...if/when the other climate shoe drops. Been musing with Bob and Kevina over the last hour about the spring vibe to the look, and it really seems it should be hard to maintain that for this long ...in the guidance, and actually get that to happen that way. I mean, meandering ULLs supplying pocket cold is really frankly a pretty bizarre look the last 10 days of January, ... but I guess add that to the list, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know and ya wonder ...if/when the other climate shoe drops. Been musing with Bob and Kevina over the last hour about the spring vibe to the look, and it really seems it should be hard to maintain that for this long ...in the guidance, and actually get that to happen that way. I mean, meandering ULLs supplying pocket cold is really frankly a pretty bizarre look the last 10 days of January, ... but I guess add that to the list, huh - Looks like El Niño. Jan '83 and Jan '98 come to mind. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0129.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us0123.php Though I do recall a blue blitz in early January 2006 and that wasn't a Niño...similar puke look though http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0103.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 JB just canceled February Get the snowblowers ready 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: JB just canceled February Get the snowblowers ready That’s a 180 from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 So MJO progs today show emergence out of cod late month briefly into 6 before going back into cod. Weeklies should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 EPS probabilities out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like El Niño. Jan '83 and Jan '98 come to mind. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0129.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us0123.php Though I do recall a blue blitz in early January 2006 and that wasn't a Niño...similar puke look though http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0103.php I remember the Jan 2006 event...no bueno in eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember the Jan 2006 event...no bueno in eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: JB just canceled February Get the snowblowers ready Ha. It has to look like the worst period in history on the way if he did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: So MJO progs today show emergence out of cod late month briefly into 6 before going back into cod. Weeklies should be interesting That's what has really been screwing with models looking in the medium-to-long range...the MJO has been on the active side and given the models struggle with the MJO it's yielded extremely uncertainty moving forward. Even short-term...there is uncertainty with how the MJO behaves before its signals weakens. Anyways...I think things are looking rather volatile moving towards the end of the month into February. I don't see any signals to lock-in cold for a pro-longed period...but this is something which I think is a bit overrated...especially given we're moving through the meat of climo. One signal which remains strong is how the Pacific looks to evolve with a very strong signal for a major EPO ridge to build across the NPAC. Would it be nice for the NAO/AO to be negative too...absolutely, but what I think to look for would be periods where they are "less positive" or becoming "less positive"...this signal can yield a brief influx of a colder airmas and then you just take your chances with timing with any storms...in which the pattern should be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 That is actually good continuity on the 12z GFS from 06z...Same pathway of the ULL underneath LI, but just a bit weaker of a system...noise at this range. Some a viewing the output through IMBY goggles. Ensembles are where it as it right now, anyway...was just curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Wrong event. The one I was mentioning was 1/2-3/06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is actually good continuity on the 12z GFS from 06z...Same pathway of the ULL underneath LI, but just a bit weaker of a system...noise at this range. Some a viewing the output through IMBY goggles. Ensembles are where it as it right now, anyway...was just curious. GEFS did trend a bit north, but I'd worry more about that at day 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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