Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Mehmouth Poosup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 congrats berks and c/nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Man nothing can go right this winter Frustrating 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Man nothing can go right this winter Frustrating Dude, your odds in NYC are pretty brutal in this setup. You want to be inland. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Right! I was thinking that’s not far off from good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 the dgz is above 600 mb on euro soundings. go low on ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better.... Hence my prior post regarding future frames. If it can push eastward and re-develop, that may save a lot more from the marine puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Man nothing can go right this winter Frustrating It. Is. 100. Plus. Hours. Out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Euro showing its dig happy bias at this lead time? Not in this instance. This was a phase job that tugged the primary ULL back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hence my prior post regarding future frames. If it can push eastward and re-develop, that may save a lot more from the marine puke. That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 elephant in the room, it won't take much correction to get that Euro worse, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Man nothing can go right this winter Frustrating Dude seriously, 6 days. Don’t start crying until Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Dude seriously, 6 days. Don’t start crying until Wednesday And even then, cry in the NYC forum 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: elephant in the room, it won't take much correction to get that Euro worse, too. There is only so far W this can go in the modeled pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The low is tracking further to the south compared to the previous run. So why declare defeat already over 130 hours out? And even if it turns out to be a non winter as it has been for so many mother nature made that decision to balance out the over abundance of snow that occurred in more consecutive recent winters. We could all go through this again next winter. Or maybe just some of us. Either way mother nature does not care about our feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Again, as some have mentioned, the sampling for this is pretty much none right now, let's see how things look on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Man that Euro run would fail every grid from ORH to TOL to Pittsfield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did. We're going to need to watch what occurs over the west coast. It appeared as though there was piece of energy that dropped south that sharpened the downstream ridging allowing that secondary s/w do dive further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Again, as some have mentioned, the sampling for this is pretty much none right now, let's see how things look on Wednesday. GOES-West is sampling it quite well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ogmios said: The low is tracking further to the south compared to the previous run. So why declare defeat already over 130 hours out? And even if it turns out to be a non winter as it has been for so many mother nature made that decision to balance out the over abundance of snow that occurred in more consecutive winters. We could all go through this again next winter. Or maybe just some of us. You're asking for an analytic perspective through an emotional/neurotic filter - For the general: The GGEM and GFS are not altogether very appealing, though still the take away is that there is a system to monitor. The Euro is arriving, interestingly ...better, for winter enthusiasts... The variability in the 850 mb thermal layout, and in fact ...the totality of it across mid and lower latitudes of N/A through next weekend, is part and parcel headaches in a spring pattern. One run adds a degree...the next shaves. Cold rain and cat's paws, then the next run becomes a grid concern... and around and around we go. Live by spring lows ... die by spring lows. Obviously we are not technically "in" spring, but that doesn't matter to the vagaries of the wind. It's spring this week, it may be winter next month, regardless of silly human conventions ...etc..etc.. But it is not atypical to spring "bowling" season, to have these lows pocket their own critical thickness and it comes down to timing dynamic pulsation and other nuances as to whether parachutes or more are realized to the surface. This Euro's track at 500 mb is a climo gem for big snows, ...and the slow movement and the cooler 850 mb profile by ~ 2 ticks across the board, is a critical difference and this solution bends conifers and sags power lines most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There is only so far W this can go in the modeled pattern. And east, North and south too........... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Man, what a putrid look across the Conus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The euro did get a little mild at 925 across a chunk of SNE when the arc of moisture swings through. Hopefully the 12z eps look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There is only so far W this can go in the modeled pattern. Timing and storm phase/maturation are as important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We're going to need to watch what occurs over the west coast. It appeared as though there was piece of energy that dropped south that sharpened the downstream ridging allowing that secondary s/w do dive further south. This...you can see that pretty clearly comparing the 0z and 12z euro runs. They begin to diverge substantially right around the Thursday time frame...and given this is still only Monday that shows how much of a window we have until this picture really becomes clearer. Given the pieces involved here it may not be until the end of the week when we really have a clear idea...especially with phasing being involved. But once it becomes clear how the ridge/trough evolve Wednesday/Thursday we'll have a much better idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Man, what a putrid look across the Conus. It really is. If you want something to go right, that surely isn’t the environment you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're asking for an analytic perspective through an emotional/neurotic fixation - For the general: The GGEM and GFS are not altogether very appealing, though still the take away is that there is a system to monitor. The Euro is arriving, interestingly ...better, for winter enthusiasts... The variability in the 850 mb thermal layout, and in fact ...the totality of it across mid and lower latitudes of N/A through next weekend, is part and parcel headaches in a spring patter. Live by spring lows ... die by spring lows. Obviously we are not technically "in" spring, but that doesn't matter to the vagaries of the wind. It's spring this week, it may be winter next month, regardless of silly human conventions ...etc..etc.. But it is not atypical to spring "bowling" season, to have these lows pocket their own critical thickness and it comes down to timing dynamic pulsation and other nuances as to whether parachutes or more are realized to the surface. This Euro's track at 500 mb is a climo gem for big snows, ...and the slow movement and the cooler 850 mb profile by ~ 2 ticks across the board, is a critical difference and this solution bends conifers and sags power lines most likely. Can envision every boob in the region just sagging to ground . Collecting on chests and d battery ing them right down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It really is. If you want something to go right, that surely isn’t the environment you want. Manufacturing that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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