CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us It’s a week out. Nobody is favored. There are so many things to figure out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a week out. Nobody is favored. There are so many things to figure out. 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes. Good Morning Will, do you think everything is still ont he table, as in cutter to miss or have we tighten the goalpoast to someone in SNE/NNE is gonna get smoked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a week out. Nobody is favored. There are so many things to figure out. Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 6 days yeah, and I like to think is even less than that, usually 48hr out you have most macro details iron out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I think 0Z runs on Tuesdsay night should start to get a better handle as I believe the shortwave enters NA around 18z-20z. someone verify that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 days Just starts 6 days. Same thing. I don’t see confidence quite yet given this setup. It has potential, but I’m not sure I would say what region is favored. Given this winter’s behavior and all the pieces not even close to being resolved, lots of questions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Good Morning Will, do you think everything is still ont he table, as in cutter to miss or have we tighten the goalpoast to someone in SNE/NNE is gonna get smoked? Yep. All still possible. Could miss our whole forum still...but I'll say that last night and early this morning definitely increased the chances of a meaningful snowfall somewhere in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The Hudson Bay ridging should nullify a cutter potential. Good news there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The Hudson Bay ridging should nullify a cutter potential. Good news there. Scooter streak in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Storm may be 6 days out and there are a dozen things to figure out, but it's actually on approach to the west coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: keeps digging everyone will be favored, hopefully we don't overcorrect and get PC skies I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts. Welcome to my childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts. Was just thinking the same. We are starting to rebuild a useful pack and I don’t want to lose what we have. If we have to get light snows to keep what we have, I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Scooter streak in full effect. No wadding. Just one lousy wipe with the last three squares on the role, cardboard showing through and all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Some minoring concern there for data sparseness/assimilation techniques. The Jan 26 governing mechanics in the E, are still almost full-body contained over eastern Pacific region. Teleconnectors can be used to offer "correction vectoring," but as I opined yesterday ..those are iffy at best for present employment. The climate prediction center's ( and probably EPS dervatives as well ..) PNA as of last check, they are/have been indicating mode change. Rising -3 or so SD to nearly or slightly above 0? Not a huge deal, no .. but significant enough to throw some questions wrt to amplitude down stream. The PNA is a massive domain region, and if the western side of it is pulling the index downward, we may be at a loss as to the scale/degree/anticipation over eastern N/A. Adding to that, the 'relaxation' and receded HC stuff, shortening wave lengths installing more curved field, as well, reduction in ambient geostrophic velocities ..it all sends determinism into uncharted waters. Probably this sounds more daunting than really is... just be leery as Will was also mentioning. From orbit this thing is really not a slug of identifiable S/W accessing a physical kick-back from R-wave redistribution blah blah constructive interference – although I am noticing a 70 to 80 kt wind max more identifiable very recently in the runs. Otherwise, S/W fragmentation amid an amorphous sort of meso-synpotic L/W that seems to coalesce one, given time. Due more so to 'emergence' of where/when said constructive interference will begin to take place.. sort of mid MV to upper MA...seemingly ideal. Lot to take in there... sorry. I still feel pretty strongly that this system's merely missing the N/stream insert at a critical/climo timing to really gin up .. If only! But even so, I'm noticing that about 2/3rds of the guidance, regardless of species/type, are shedding ~ 4 to 6 dm of heights off the 500 mb core as this lifts from the lower OV across the upper MA and possibly ( finger's cross ) along that critical 1 to 3 deg of latitude S of LI – typical snow route. And if the mid level heights are indeed falling while that happens... that's a potential red flag. Thinking aloud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 days More like day 5...Onset is early Saturday p.m. for most. Slow mover through day 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: More like day 5...Onset is early Saturday p.m. for most. Slow mover through day 6. You get my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Everybody has there wants, Some will get them, Some won't, I'll remain skeptical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes. Do you see similarities to Dec 92? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us It would be silly to discount anything, just talking about this mornings Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Some support here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you see similarities to Dec 92? I’ll take 36-42”. Sadly, that ain’t happenin’ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Some support here. Congrats Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: It would be silly to discount anything, just talking about this mornings Ensembles Totally . But the EPS would snap every tree and deck from KMOO to KORH and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Congrats Mid Atlantic? That's low track anomalies. Its favorable for sne in phase 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Some support here. Would take that, Looks like it would emerge back in 5 from the COD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you see similarities to Dec 92? Yeah some. But keep in mind that was a system that looks like this on steroids. Some of the basics are similar. But if everything goes "right", this has a pretty high ceiling...esp interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah some. But keep in mind that was a system that looks like this on steroids. Some of the basics are similar. But if everything goes "right", this has a pretty high ceiling...esp interior. Would love a region wide smashing. Would do good for everyone. Or would it spoil us more? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Would love a region wide smashing. Would do good for everyone. Or would it spoil us more? lol Climo can pay us back in 100 years when we're all dead... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now