RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 If we can somehow lock this in like Saturday’s event at d5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The euro is like a March 2010 catpaw reminder. Putrid airmass on the model. The EPS did look colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Looking at WPC this morn it seems the low position Sunday morning is the same spot just south of LI inside the benchmark. The high north of Maine is in a better position than yesterday’s depiction. The storm does scoot ene from there though, not sure how that impact nne folks. Why the slip east? Synoptic wave development. Disturbance cuts off quickly = Minimal downstream UL ridging. Most ironic thing to me is the fact that SNE folks are the ones complainin’ most about this potential, meanwhile NNE is where the greatest “non-event“ risk lies... With time this is looking more like an SNE and Northern mid Atlantic snowstorm to me, but everyone in those areas focused on marginal temps that won’t matter if the Synoptics pan out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Monday morning (Jan 20) everyone, Am a little uneasy starting this event specific topic since uncertainty exists regarding thermal profile and latitude of the primary-secondary development but I thought it best to get this going since it's a potential national news story from the Ohio Valley-Great Lakes to the interior northeast. Upfront: NYC-LI doesn't look promising at this time for more than 3" of snow , if any snow at all, due to the marginal thermal profile in advance of this system. The GEFS through 00z/20 was north of the EPS. There is still plenty of time-room for adjustment but at face value (00z/20 ensembles), this looks to me to be a primarily a northeast PA, northwest NJ northeastward into nw CT (I84 corridor) wet snowstorm with lots of potential (for a bust=no significant snow). My take is it will snow there for a time and that this event could be substantial impact upon higher terrain. I'm adding some graphics - these should not amp up NYC or points south.... but for me serve as a starter for a winter event. These include the 05z/20 NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow which is less than 10% for NYC. Then I've added..courtesy of the ECMWF and Weather.US, the 00z/20 EPS probs for 3 and 6" for this event (6 days in advance). I've also added the 00z/20 GEFS snowfall plume for LGA which is very low... most plumes under 2". This all adjusts as we move forward in time. If you want to root for snow, root development south of both ensemble systems 00z/20 positions. Am still concerned this will end up north and warmer (rain) up to I84. 625A/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The euro is like a March 2010 catpaw reminder. Putrid airmass on the model. The EPS did look colder. We need this storm to get a little stronger, the airmass is marginal but if this storm drops say into 985-990 millibar range it’s going to really out the marginal airmass and produce snow even to the coast with the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: We need this storm to get a little stronger, the airmass is marginal but if this storm drops say into 985-990 millibar range it’s going to really out the marginal airmass and produce snow even to the coast with the GFS track. Intensity is sort of irrelevant. It’s timing the ULL along with confluence to the north to help funnel in colder air. What you don’t want, is the euro op. It gets too close and wraps in marine air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Walt, hope all is well. Thanks for chiming in with your thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 No early threads please. It jinxes the storm 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Intensity is sort of irrelevant. It’s timing the ULL along with confluence to the north to help funnel in colder air. What you don’t want, is the euro op. It gets too close and wraps in marine air. Oh ok... hopefully we trend towards that. It’s a slow moving system this would crush everybody if the hit was maximized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I’m fully prepared for a not so nice solution though. We are due for a hills plastering and down the drain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Walt, hope all is well. Thanks for chiming in with your thoughts. Your welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone have access to the EPS probability charts for 3” and 6”? 4 Seasons likes those. Congrats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 What's the old rule of thumb? The heaviest snow falls about 2 degrees to the left of the ULL track? These long-lived bowling ball ULLs often remind me of that old rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If we can somehow lock this in like Saturday’s event at d5... Models are in relatively good agreement with certain aspects of the event at D5. GFS/CMC starting to look pretty similar albeit temp profiles. Wild card for us will be whether or not this thing has enough dynamics to create some cold. The airmass is so very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: My top 3. Just pounder in interior and especially elevated areas. Heavy heavy wet snow and strong damaging winds. We had 16-18” around here . ORH had 36”. Power was out for days Great storm indeed. Down on the coast in SW CT managed 6 inches in the last part of the storm. my sister was at UCONN and said they got demolished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's the old rule of thumb? The heaviest snow falls about 2 degrees to the left of the ULL track? These long-lived bowling ball ULLs often remind me of that old rule. Something about -6c at 7h too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your welcome Identity crisis? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I’ve also heard it snows at the 540 line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’ve also heard it snows at the 540 line. It will never snow again in Weymouth due to global warming and the new compressor station. It will warm the air by 2c 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: No early threads please. It jinxes the storm Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m fully prepared for a not so nice solution though. We are due for a hills plastering and down the drain here. We are? That’s been the theme mostly this winter, up & in... I get that this could be the most likely outcome, but no, we are not due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’ve also heard it snows at the 540 line. And above the 0c 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Something about -6c at 7h too.. -8C isotherm at 850. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Synoptic wave development. Disturbance cuts off quickly = Minimal downstream UL ridging. Most ironic thing to me is the fact that SNE folks are the ones complainin’ most about this potential, meanwhile NNE is where the greatest “non-event“ risk lies... With time this is looking more like an SNE and Northern mid Atlantic snowstorm to me, but everyone in those areas focused on marginal temps that won’t matter if the Synoptics pan out. Thanks, I was wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve also heard it snows at the 540 line. I hope you have your critical thickness checksheet ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 CFS weeklies kicked the better look down the line. 500mb looked better at week 3 but surface temps high. Week 4 still has a trough in Alaska but managed to put a trough in the east with cold temps. 5 and 6 look great. That Alaska trough has to move at some point doesn't it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's the old rule of thumb? The heaviest snow falls about 2 degrees to the left of the ULL track? These long-lived bowling ball ULLs often remind me of that old rule. Well let’s get it just slightly above 41 then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Thanks, I was wondering Be concerned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Man that 00z Euro would be a kick in the groin. BM track and rains to Montreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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