January 2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs better.

Yeah starting to slow down the ULL a bit....we want it slower and a bit south of the GFS like the GGEM track...or some of the EPS. OP Euro was close too, but a a little too slow and digging for oil and it allows the best confluence to pass us by.

Walt made a good point about timing....this is definitely all about timing the ULL approaching us in tandem with the best confluence in Quebec.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I still can’t believe how this collapsed. That’s incredible. 

People need to hear it 

let’s see if we can do thiS next weekend and then score a another . Obviously the coast is pretty much In need of a flutie

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

cmc looks like it’s doubling down.

[ineedsnow]

12z CMC looks great

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

cmc looks like it’s doubling down.

Why can't that model find a nut from time to time....it is at least nice to see something close on all of the models

[dryslot]

Were on to the 25-26th

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Why can't that model find a nut from time to time....it is at least nice to see something close on all of the models

We can only pray it pulls off a JMA Feb06 score. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We can only pray it pulls off a JMA Feb06 score. 

If it happens, this storm will forever be known as "The GGEM Storm". Kind of like how 12/29/12 became "The RPM storm"

Though in all honesty, GGEM solution does have some support. EPS are not far off. But GGEM seems to keep showing the perfect solution time after time despite the lead time. 

[dryslot]

I'm locking the ggem.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah starting to slow down the ULL a bit....we want it slower and a bit south of the GFS like the GGEM track...or some of the EPS. OP Euro was close too, but a a little too slow and digging for oil and it allows the best confluence to pass us by.

Walt made a good point about timing....this is definitely all about timing the ULL approaching us in tandem with the best confluence in Quebec.

Yea, we need timing....this is a good example of the value of an NAO. Its overrated in the sense that there is a misperception that you need it for a big event. You don't, but if we had it here, then the path to a fun solution would be much wider because the confluence would be held in place and the system would be forced to dig.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm locking the ggem.

In an alternate reality I average 100" per year on ggem storms. 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, we need timing....this is a good example of the value of an NAO. Its overrated in the sense that there is a misperception that you need it for a big event. You don't, but if we had it here, then the path to a fun solution would be much wider because the confluence would be held jn place and the system would be forced to dig.

Exactly. We could use a wider margin for error with a -NAO. March 2018 showed us that. Let’s thread the needle next weekend, ease back on the AK pig or at least push it to the Aleutians and we’re back in business. 

[ineedsnow]

12z GEFS looking better

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12z GEFS looking better

All the models have shown improvements since yesterday, even the Euro.  Still not there yet though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Walt mentioned he uses the GGEM . That is a huge positive 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I said it in December.  Watch we get 1 huge snowstorm  and that's it.

Back in November, I picked 12/5 to 12/19 and 2/20 to 3/5 as my periods.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Is that low over AK a permanent feature?  Is that expected to sit up there through the rest of the winter?  Or are people jumping because it’s parked there in the D11-15 period...a period that has been wicked consistent this year?  Consistently inconsistent that is. 

 

I mean, I think it will ebb and flow, but don't expect a 2015 ridge to sit on the eskimo's face.

[NorEastermass128]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, I think it will ebb and flow, but don't expect a 2015 ridge to sit on the eskimo's face.

No, I don’t think so either. I doubt we go full blown 2011-2012 either though despite what some of the melters fear. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No, I don’t think so either. I doubt we go full blown 2011-2012 either though despite what some of the melters fear. 

It doesn’t look as intense as 2011-12 was which begin in October actually.  That was a block hole. This is more shades of gray which actually show signs of lessening at the end of the runs but it’s ugly nonetheless 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously the GEM is very good.

The problem with the GFS is that the H5 low is further to the north, bodily over sne and a bit weaker....the Euro tracks similarly to the GEM, but it looks to me like the low up east of Greenand is not nearly as pronounced, which doesn't allow the system to dig as much and intensify.

That is correctable.....GEM is closer to reality than GFS...that said...doesn't necessarily mean a big snow storm for sne.

[CoastalWx]

What a deck destroyer on the Canadian. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just a quick reminder ... the 25-26th has been showing up among the individual GEFs members with > 50% recursion rate/cycles for days.  Either in the form of weaker antecedent mechanics leading pallid coastal lows, to outright bombs, the persistence is weightier than the individual messages  

I've also noticed this morning off the 00z cycle, the EPS was a colder profile ~ half way through the cyclonic envelope/translation of it, with subtantive sub-850 mb in thermal layout/structure to argue a legit colder profiled totality over the operational version.  Obviously early speculation ..but mutable at this sort of extended lead. Marginal/spring blue bomb speculation across 2 C differences are small numbers, but with meaningful implications to put it nicely.  We are into climo mid trop ...even +1 C over marginal 6 K thickness is easily doable.

The GEFs mean was also well SE of the operational GFS thus also concomitantly colder because of that.   Just some notes -

We are in a bizarre hemisphere wrt to teleconnecitons. The PNA at CDC/ERSL's version is demonstratively out of sync with the CPC numbers.  Now..these sources will seldom be 1::1 correlators per se, due to the differing EOFs methods - one being llv wind flux anomalies, the other being mid level geopotential height anomalies, respectively. However, the differences - presently - strain credibility even factoring that in. Not sure what is causing the CDC to be so demonstratively posotive in the PNA, when the CPC values, altho do show a mode correction, stalls the rise around neutral departures only to flat line the index with remarkable agreement all the way out to the end of week two like that.  I almost get the feeling - in part when factoring in the MJO failure ( apparent ) to move the robust wave signature deeper in the Phase 7/8-1 ..) that the HC is still lurking and imposing an influence, regardless of modeled heights appearing to have eased off along the southern girdle below N/A.  It's as though the Pacific domain is being guided by super aggregate index/constructive interference for +WPO/AA N pac/+EPO, and to do so on very large planetary scale, argues a majestic factor - the only thing I can think of capable of doing so would be the Hadley Cell invasion into the lower Ferrel latitudes - which by papered/peer reviewal is unfortunately an amorphous boundary of it's own, as in ill-defined because of ablation effects where it terminates into the mid latitudes/westerlies. So it is hard to pin-point much less plan around. Operationally though...I find it difficult to use/employ the CDC/ERSL either way/causality aside.  The -3 SD PNA rise to +0.25 of the CPC may be enough to excite some sort of weak Archembaultian thing but that's not an altogether strong signal either.   

Regardless of all, small frets and starts of -EPO pulsation has been loading some cold into Canada, as this recent presaged air mass to the 4-6" overnight loaded ultimately into the local space and set stage rather nicely timed.  Impressed by powder snow event on a SW flow -

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Back in November, I picked 12/5 to 12/19 and 2/20 to 3/5 as my periods.

So did my wife

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

So did my wife

Betty Davis just deleted her account.

[Torch Tiger]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, we need timing....this is a good example of the value of an NAO. Its overrated in the sense that there is a misperception that you need it for a big event. You don't, but if we had it here, then the path to a fun solution would be much wider because the confluence would be held in place and the system would be forced to dig.

exactly what I said last week when everyone was dancing like its 2015 and the greatest winter pattern ever

[dendrite]

It'd be funny if we score in a spring pattern in January after cutters in a winter pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

exactly what I said last week when everyone was dancing like its 2015 and the greatest winter pattern ever

I think what you said was more in the lines of late winter and sun angle. 

[EastonSN+]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, I think it will ebb and flow, but don't expect a 2015 ridge to sit on the eskimo's face.

There we go. Not hopeless like 11/12

[NorEastermass128]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be funny if we score in a spring pattern in January after cutters in a winter pattern.

Wouldn’t shock me. 

[dendrite]

Kinda catching up after cleaning up the snow. First thing I saw when comparing the GFS and GGEM is what everyone else seems to have seen. That s/w cutting through QB from James Bay out ahead of the CONUS ULL is much faster on the GGEM than the GFS. It seems like we're able to get a little more CAA in here ahead of the ULL that way. That confluence and high get a little more established into Mooseville Maine. Of course, it's the GGEM at d6 so it's all fun and games while the anomaly correlation is under 90.