CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Just last week the EPS had a great pattern Wtf happened? You’re just realizing this now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There aren’t many seasonal folks calling for an early spring. Is that what your friend Cranky is saying? I’ve been calling for it since issued winter forecast late Oct. What may bust is it comes in sooner and spring just hits in early Feb. TBD Here is what I put out back in Oct Quick thoughts on winter: I’ve been getting a lot of questions on the upcoming winter , so will just lay out thoughts . Overall it looks to be a fairly normal winter snowfall and temp wise. For example, the Tolland area averages about 60” of snow per year. I think we will fall somewhere in the 55-65” range. It doesn’t appear like it will be overly snowy with above normal snowfall. Nor does it appear that we’ll have a terrible winter with very little snow. There will be a fairly sharp gradient this year of haves vs have nots. I would guess that area is the NYC to south coast area. Near and south of that line may not see that much snow . As you head farther north that should steadily increase . Temps are likely to average a bit above normal . We’ll have our share of arctic outbreaks, but there should also be times of milder weather . There may also be higher than normal potential of a significant icestorm this year . I could see quite a few icing events happening , especially earlier in the season. Lastly , I think this year we see the trends of recent years where winter starts late and ends late reverse. I think it starts late Nov/early Dec and ends late Feb or early March . December for a change could be fairly wintry , especially if we see a -NAO kick in as long range guidance is picking up on. January may end up as the “easiest going” month of the winter before February sees another good wintry month set in. If it goes according to plan , spring comes in early -mid March instead of May like recent years. That’s pretty much my thought process , laying it out there. Trying to predict the future is never easy . Hopefully the flakes fly early and often !! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Oink oink!!! Yeah.... this thing is teetering on going full blown rat. I wouldn’t count on some small nuance saving us. Embrace the pork, it’s the only pork you got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Oink oink Perhaps the panic queens should realize that we do have a split flow, and that we have a tendency for highs to our north this season. It is enough for a good outcome, though doesn’t mean it won’t get worse. But also it could get better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Holding off on starting this as a topic (25th-26th) till i see a little better chance for an inch or 2 of snow LI... i do think this is something to watch. Great Lakes low with a possible secondary L to the mid Atlantic coast. Marginal temps for snow-ice in an above normal temp regime during the coldest time of the year. Maps posted are several LR tools... stats. Only rather low chance of ensembles 3+ I84 corridor at this time. Nicely modeled (GFS version) confluence zone se Canada giving us a chance of a sfc high to the north and definite good 500 mb jet structure for an event...but is it all rain. Lets see what happens. AT 654AM I added the GEFS plumes for LGA. Right now its at 1" of snow. There 00z/13 GEFS LGA plumes had 4" of snow with over 1" qpf. 00z/14 onward, LGA was in the 1.5-2.5 mean for Yesterdays event, which I think is excellent consistency. I expect the GEFS/EPS is going to continue with near 1" qpf for this coming event and its a matter of trends on snowfall. I still want to see 12z/19 EPS/GEFS probs for 3+ inches next weekend before comitting. It's still possible for all rain LI, especially with our winter in progress. No rush here... savoring yesterdays south-southwest wind bonus. 659A/19 If Walt is watching it for NJ.. that definitely should perk your attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: If Walt is watching it for NJ.. that definitely should perk your attention Exactly. Just like our country these days, too many wild swings in emotions and very little slow and steady groundedness and perspective, though we def have a few on here who are staying grounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Perhaps the panic queens should realize that we do have a split flow, and that we have a tendency for highs to our north this season. It is enough for a good outcome, though doesn’t mean it won’t get worse. But also it could get better. Works better for those away from the coast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been calling for it since issued winter forecast late Oct. What may bust is it comes in sooner and spring just hits in early Feb. TBD Here is what I put out back in Oct Quick thoughts on winter: I’ve been getting a lot of questions on the upcoming winter , so will just lay out thoughts . Overall it looks to be a fairly normal winter snowfall and temp wise. For example, the Tolland area averages about 60” of snow per year. I think we will fall somewhere in the 55-65” range. It doesn’t appear like it will be overly snowy with above normal snowfall. Nor does it appear that we’ll have a terrible winter with very little snow. There will be a fairly sharp gradient this year of haves vs have nots. I would guess that area is the NYC to south coast area. Near and south of that line may not see that much snow . As you head farther north that should steadily increase . Temps are likely to average a bit above normal . We’ll have our share of arctic outbreaks, but there should also be times of milder weather . There may also be higher than normal potential of a significant icestorm this year . I could see quite a few icing events happening , especially earlier in the season. Lastly , I think this year we see the trends of recent years where winter starts late and ends late reverse. I think it starts late Nov/early Dec and ends late Feb or early March . December for a change could be fairly wintry , especially if we see a -NAO kick in as long range guidance is picking up on. January may end up as the “easiest going” month of the winter before February sees another good wintry month set in. If it goes according to plan , spring comes in early -mid March instead of May like recent years. That’s pretty much my thought process , laying it out there. Trying to predict the future is never easy . Hopefully the flakes fly early and often !! Fair enough. Most guys say Feb and especially March could be our best month. I’d like an early warm spring but I’d also like to get a big storm or two and if that means Mar 25th...I welcome it. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been calling for it since issued winter forecast late Oct. What may bust is it comes in sooner and spring just hits in early Feb. TBD Here is what I put out back in Oct Quick thoughts on winter: I’ve been getting a lot of questions on the upcoming winter , so will just lay out thoughts . Overall it looks to be a fairly normal winter snowfall and temp wise. For example, the Tolland area averages about 60” of snow per year. I think we will fall somewhere in the 55-65” range. It doesn’t appear like it will be overly snowy with above normal snowfall. Nor does it appear that we’ll have a terrible winter with very little snow. There will be a fairly sharp gradient this year of haves vs have nots. I would guess that area is the NYC to south coast area. Near and south of that line may not see that much snow . As you head farther north that should steadily increase . Temps are likely to average a bit above normal . We’ll have our share of arctic outbreaks, but there should also be times of milder weather . There may also be higher than normal potential of a significant icestorm this year . I could see quite a few icing events happening , especially earlier in the season. Lastly , I think this year we see the trends of recent years where winter starts late and ends late reverse. I think it starts late Nov/early Dec and ends late Feb or early March . December for a change could be fairly wintry , especially if we see a -NAO kick in as long range guidance is picking up on. January may end up as the “easiest going” month of the winter before February sees another good wintry month set in. If it goes according to plan , spring comes in early -mid March instead of May like recent years. That’s pretty much my thought process , laying it out there. Trying to predict the future is never easy . Hopefully the flakes fly early and often !! If the Atlantic doesn't change, then I can see an early spring, but I still feel as though it will. The Pacific should largely remain crap....that is what I have said since Novie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If Walt is watching it for NJ.. that definitely should perk your attention I think this far in advance there are several questions... thermal profile cold enough? will the qpf diminish considerably at 5 days? Right now i see a nice RRQ of the high level jet in se Canada and the LF quad of the Great Lakes sw. I see see flow at 850 (as opposed to ydy), And for now I sense an option of reintensiifcation of the Great Lakes sw to a closed 500 LOW somewhere near the New England coast late Sunday. Til the option of a negative tilt 500 trough with energy pouring across the mid-Atlantic states goes away, my hopes continue. Obviously this is a terrible winter pattern so far and not a lot of teleconnection support for a snowstorm. However, I am a 'timing' favored forecaster as events pass through. Sometimes, it is all about timing. The GEFS plumes for 06z/19 are appended as well and that is what I am monitoring to trigger. I'd like LGA to increase to a 2" snowfall mean with fewer near zero plumes to trigger the topic. By the way, I am keeping in mind Don Sutherlands message from this morning. While far from a statistician, I do like stats as limiters on expressing extremes. So, at this day7-8 stage, not at all optimistic for NYC but definitely potential for I84. One other note... from my perspective, it's always a good idea to check GGEM track. Have a very good day and I do not expect to post anything more prior to 5PM. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 wow VIP alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 CFS still looks good from week 3 on. GEFS and GEPS break the cross Canada ridge allowing for some colder air at very end of run. Heard EPS shows no hope. Will hug CFS until all hope removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Winter might be over for anything sustained Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5. Another busted winter by many people. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: I think this far in advance there are several questions... thermal profile cold enough? will the qpf diminish considerably at 5 days? Right now i see a nice RRQ of the high level jet in se Canada and the LF quad of the Great Lakes sw. I see see flow at 850 (as opposed to ydy), And for now I sense an option of reintensiifcation of the Great Lakes sw to a closed 500 LOW somewhere near the New England coast late Sunday. Til the option of a negative tilt 500 trough with energy pouring across the mid-Atlantic states goes away, my hopes continue. Obviously this is a terrible winter pattern so far and not a lot of teleconnection support for a snowstorm. However, I am a 'timing' favored forecaster as events pass through. Sometimes, it is all about timing. The GEFS plumes for 06z/19 are appended as well and that is what I am monitoring to trigger. I'd like LGA to increase to a 2" snowfall mean with fewer near zero plumes to trigger the topic. By the way, I am keeping in mind Don Sutherlands message from this morning. While far from a statistician, I do like stats as limiters on expressing extremes. So, at this day7-8 stage, not at all optimistic for NYC but definitely potential for I84. One other note... from my perspective, it's always a good idea to check GGEM track. Have a very good day and I do not expect to post anything more prior to 5PM. Walt!! Thanks so much for the detailed post! We miss your expertise up in SNE and all of us learned so much from you. There was nothing like a WD AFD prior to snowstorms. Please drop in more often. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, wdrag said: I think this far in advance there are several questions... thermal profile cold enough? will the qpf diminish considerably at 5 days? Right now i see a nice RRQ of the high level jet in se Canada and the LF quad of the Great Lakes sw. I see see flow at 850 (as opposed to ydy), And for now I sense an option of reintensiifcation of the Great Lakes sw to a closed 500 LOW somewhere near the New England coast late Sunday. Til the option of a negative tilt 500 trough with energy pouring across the mid-Atlantic states goes away, my hopes continue. Obviously this is a terrible winter pattern so far and not a lot of teleconnection support for a snowstorm. However, I am a 'timing' favored forecaster as events pass through. Sometimes, it is all about timing. The GEFS plumes for 06z/19 are appended as well and that is what I am monitoring to trigger. I'd like LGA to increase to a 2" snowfall mean with fewer near zero plumes to trigger the topic. By the way, I am keeping in mind Don Sutherlands message from this morning. While far from a statistician, I do like stats as limiters on expressing extremes. So, at this day7-8 stage, not at all optimistic for NYC but definitely potential for I84. One other note... from my perspective, it's always a good idea to check GGEM track. Have a very good day and I do not expect to post anything more prior to 5PM. Walt, please drop in here whenever time permits....appreciate the thoughts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Winter might be over for anything sustained Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5. Another busted winter by many people. DT has had a rough couple of years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Feb 06 was in the midst of an awful pattern and a subpar winter overall. It can be done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Early December is saving my bacon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Feb 06 was in the midst of an awful pattern and a subpar winter overall. It can be done. I said it in December. Watch we get 1 huge snowstorm and that's it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT has had a rough couple of years. Not only him but many others predicted another snowy northeast winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: I said it in December. Watch we get 1 huge snowstorm and that's it. I’m fine with that. In a shit season, just give me one big one. I’m sure you don’t care that the winter of 15/16 was bad for you overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m fine with that. In a shit season, just give me one big one. I’m sure you don’t care that the winter of 15/16 was bad for you overall. Not at all 30 inches in one day did it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Feb 06 was in the midst of an awful pattern and a subpar winter overall. It can be done. I still got 40 inches that winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Is that low over AK a permanent feature? Is that expected to sit up there through the rest of the winter? Or are people jumping because it’s parked there in the D11-15 period...a period that has been wicked consistent this year? Consistently inconsistent that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I still got 40 inches that winter 26” in one storm helps a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 It's like Tip without the psycho babble. Very cool 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: It's like Tip without the psycho babble and an actual trick record as a renowned operational meteorologist. Very cool FYP 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Hey Walt! Thanks for dropping by! Hopefully all is well with you and we all shovel next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 And scooter-next time don’t howl in the tunnel! It had the reverse effect of your melt 5 years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 gfs better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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