Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: What else can be said about it until it snows? It has zero surprises Maybe he wants to discuss how the cloud shield broke up and the sun is out brightly in many places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Kevin hates when folks tell him what he doesn’t want to hear...pattern does not look good but hopefully it snows anyway r guidance is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: That's what she said. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Kevin hates when folks tell him what he doesn’t want to hear...pattern does not look good but hopefully it snows anyway r guidance is wrong. It doesn’t not look good. That’s the thing. If it looked terrible so be it. But it doesn’t. So why you guys are melting is odd. It’s certainly more than serviceable. Great pattern... no. Decent... absolutely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: What would happen if you just didn’t look at models for 2-3 days? Where’s the harm? Why not give it a try? i'll look if he doesn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Biggest GEM run of our lives has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 GFS actually has some snow next weekend now. The central Canada ridging is forcing some confluence and heights down to the east in Quebec which gives a decent high. None of this is really meaningful right now...but it shows what the ensembles were showing....if you get a decent high up there, then we can still score something with the storm approaching from the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has some snow next weekend now. The central Canada ridging is forcing some confluence and heights down to the east in Quebec which gives a decent high. None of this is really meaningful right now...but it shows what the ensembles were showing....if you get a decent high up there, then we can still score something with the storm approaching from the south. 2015 snow retention is not happening with temps staying below freezing for weeks...It is January, not March so that look might just find a way to keep bumping us up to normal snowfall this year. I am sitting at almost 11, after today maybe 15ish. I have no clue what my actual climo average is here, but maybe around 45 inches? So I have a good ways to go, but will probably end up close, last year 35" was all I could get.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 If it's a torch next weekend we better get a resident psychiatrist for the forum, even Tippy's therapeutic talks won't help us at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Whineminster said: If it's a torch next weekend we better get a resident psychiatrist for the forum, even Tippy's therapeutic talks won't help us at that point. it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 35 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'll look if he doesn't The oddest thing is if you looked at 500mb you’d never guess that was the resultant anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 45 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'll look if he doesn't Long range sucks either way. Take it with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Take with a grain of salt, but CFS weekly still looks good! Probably cause only model going to phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Why is it always the GEFS that’s most weenie-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Take with a grain of salt, but CFS weekly still looks good! Probably cause only model going to phase 8 The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO. If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder. Spends more time in the middle. And exits out into 6. I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does a reemergence into 4 or 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Why is it always the GEFS that’s most weenie-ish. one of the models needs to have something to track, otherwise everyone would move on and do non weather type stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO. If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder. Spends more time in the middle. And exits out into 6. I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does a reemergence into 4 or 5 Are any of these models affected by things such as volcanic eruptions, massive Aussie fires? Just seems like the longer range has been quite erratic recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO. If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder. Spends more time in the middle. And exits out into 6. I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does a reemergence into 4 or 5 Emerging in 6 is great considering the alternative of 4 5. Hopefully the next wave makes it to 8 and we have another great March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow. That's a nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 What a bizarre look on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow. The day after Christine rejected him and said no to the prom. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a bizarre look on the euro. Hadley Cell stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Could be fun...emphasis on could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Could be fun...emphasis on could. EPS not looking too bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: EPS not looking too bad either The mean looks good. Would love to see individual members.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Could be fun...emphasis on could. Yeah there's potential. But again...marginal airmass...here the Miller B look I was mentioning to the Pope earlier...I do like that high though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Sure glad we stayed course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sure glad we stayed course Just because one speculates on the upcoming pattern doesn’t mean they changed their pre season forecast. I’ve been on board with normal to slightly below normal snows this season since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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