HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Could any mets comment on why the Euro ensembles puked all over themselves in the last week regarding temps? I know Scott and perhaps Tip were mentioning this pretty early on. It was disconcerting watching them push deep cold a week ago then do a remarkable turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Next weekend is an example of Hudson Bay Ridging. Sometimes that bootleg ridging can allow for something to pop amid a Pacific driven look. Peak climo does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In all seriousness, stick to sales. What would happen if you just didn’t look at models for 2-3 days? Where’s the harm? Why not give it a try? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Climo nadir for BOS I think is tomorrow? Time is running out but we will get our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Could any mets comment on why the Euro ensembles puked all over themselves in the last week regarding temps? I know Scott and perhaps Tip were mentioning this pretty early on. It was disconcerting watching them push deep cold a week ago then do a remarkable turnaround. Excited Pacific jet, possibly MJO driven. That can happen. It only takes one s/w to break down the ridge and the dam sort of breaks if you will. I will say not every member was on board. The mean though skewed the look to more -EPO ridging. Ironically, the GFS op was never really on board. It kept showing a PAC driven look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's the GEFS and EPS below. They are both pretty bullish on a system somewhere near us next weekend but you can see the marginal temps too. It could easily be rain on a more west track or even a whiff SE. I suspect the fate of this system will drastically change perceptions of the pattern regardless. I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways... That doesn’t look too bad to mine weenie eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 SGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What would happen if you just didn’t look at models for 2-3 days? Where’s the harm? Why not give it a try? He’d get fired by his employer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: He’d get fired by his employer? He could just look at upper air charts over flight zones. Doesn’t need to obsess over the weather that will affect his BY in S Weymouth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: SGW Snow gonna wait 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways... Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Kevin is doing what I call passive melting. It’s a cute psychological experiment. It’s basically internal melting, but put the blame on the person who’s information is not conforming to your opinions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The whole point was Scooter spends far too much time looking at and obsessing about each model run. And a deeper dive would reveal it’s because he’s worried when it’s 42 tomorrow in S Wey and the west winds melted what falls today that his kids will be trapped inside. For him, when there’s no snow and nothing to track and it’s too cold and wet and children are stuck inside... emotionally he simply cannot handle that. It stresses him out to the Nth degree. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west. Yea but at/near peak climo means antecedent airmass matters much less if we get a deep coastal low. Late January means deep cold to tap is close by...I think too much focus on temp at onset, and missing bigger picture. This also has characteristics of a Miller A with subsequent phase. The sub tropical jet appears to be involved early on in this setup...May seem like a minor detail but reason I’m brining this up, is bc I think this evolution has a much better chance of being dynamic enough to quickly overcome any antecedent airmass issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 all models showing the possibility for this weekend, should be fun tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin is doing what I call passive melting. It’s a cute psychological experiment. It’s basically internal melting, but put the blame on the person who’s information is not conforming to your opinions. 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The whole point was Scooter spends far too much time looking at and obsessing about each model run. And a deeper dive would reveal it’s because he’s worried when it’s 42 tomorrow in S Wey and the west winds melted what falls today that his kids will be trapped inside. For him, when there’s no snow and nothing to track and it’s too cold and wet and children are stuck inside... emotionally he simply cannot handle that. It stresses him out to the Nth degree. This is like some high quality, 8-mile battle rapping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is like some high quality, 8-mile battle rapping here. His palms are sweaty..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 There’s vomit on Scoots sweater kids spaghetti 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 Thursday and Friday... GEFS/EPS guidance continue to be in very good agreement in showing upper level trough departing and some upper level ridging building into the Northeast. The result will be temps moderating to above normal levels. Highs on Thu should reach the 40s in many locations and perhaps around 50 in some locations by Fri. A ridge of high pressure will also result in dry weather persisting for the remainder of the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 ORH sitting at +9.1F MTD. Ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: In all seriousness, stick to sales. In all seriousness if you go big on snow he will want you posting more keep it real , it’s refreshing and we know blizz will gradually melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: ORH sitting at +9.1F MTD. Ouch At least we had December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I don’t know what wrong w me but I don’t even really mind a torch January. The one Thing I can’t stand at all is January rain and there hasn’t been that much here the two patterns I can’t stand is cold and dry or the closely related cold dry and mild up wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The fact that this discussion thread is more active than the event thread that begins in the next few hours speaks volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Salesman. It looked good, but everyone mentioned the caveats. Now, It looks pretty ugly as modeled. That’s the key phrase. However, I think there is support for the ugly pacific. MJO gone wild. Yep. The wave in p5 (kelvin) is gaining strength and will be the main wave once the forcing weakens in wpac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The fact that this discussion thread is more active than the event thread that begins in the next few hours speaks volumes. Storm porn has desensitized the weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The fact that this discussion thread is more active than the event thread that begins in the next few hours speaks volumes. Meh , not really it’s a 2-5” snow and begins later 5” doesn’t really excite Anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Meh , not really it’s a 2-5” snow and begins later 5” doesn’t really excite Anyone That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 36 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The fact that this discussion thread is more active than the event thread that begins in the next few hours speaks volumes. What else can be said about it until it snows? It has zero surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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