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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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EPS are decent. After our marginal storm threat next weekend, they are trying to return to the +PNA pattern....almost with some split flow out west too, so there would be southern streamers in the mix. We don't have the huge -EPO though, prob just mildly negatuve....but we don't need it if we can keep the +PNA look there. Jan and early February 2001 played out that way actually.

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4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I think the day 8 system comes back as at least SECS. And first one of the season to watch that has a appreciable shot at becoming a MECS...SNE also in the game on this ...My first *low* confidence guess...

Agree.

Gave this potential a shout out in last Sunday's blog.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still looks assy.

We just can’t shake the lower hgts in Ak. What once looked like a sustainable cold stretch next week has morphed into a few cold days. Coldest part of winter(especially further north then me) we don’t need a ice box but we are above normal after Thursday. Eps hinting at a swfe last week of January as snow mean creeps up. 

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We just can’t shake the lower hgts in Ak. What once looked like a sustainable cold stretch next week has morphed into a few cold days. Coldest part of winter(especially further north then me) we don’t need a ice box but we are above normal after Thursday. Eps hinting at a swfe last week of January as snow mean creeps up. 

Yeah it could work out here, but that’s certainly not the greatest look overall. 

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I’m heading to NH this weekend. Might have a chance to meet up with a few of the posters who live up north.

At some point I also want to explore Vermont, but when I booked, guidance wasn’t looking as good for Stowe, plus I was told it gets crowded on MLK weekend.

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's some EPS support for GGEM type solution. It's not out of the question. Keep an open mind on that d6-10 pattern though. Quite uncertain. 

that's a spring bowler on that GGEM ...hands down... Relaxed flow marginality amid a plate of spaghetti look ..that is vintage late March - actually not as bad with the noodles as the Euro though

Oper. Euro wasn't far off...just 'that much' less sculpted/refined in design, otherwise it's the same weird bag of amorphous, ill-defined negative turner.  GGEM's more robust by inches, but enough to cool the column through a blue changer-over, as well as the middling cyclonic response running up the coast.  Get few knots in the vortmax and bore 6 dm out of the core, and that Euro solution does the same thing... 

Which, I have been watching the 25-27th for days...  days.  The GEFs ensembles, every single one, have some kind of EC proximate cyclogenesis going on around that time, and have for quite a while. 

This is a weird pattern ... there's post above about panic over whether the pattern changes... I find it laughable.. .OF course it changed!  good Christ... It's almost like, if it doesn't change into what they want, cryo-dystoian bliss, it ain't changing.   hahaha.   Man, gotta love the reasonability of court-yard rabble.

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2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I mean it’s 8 days out, there is hope for everyone at this point. We have seen plenty of modeling head-fakes and near term changes this season. I’d assume this is no different. Let’s give it some time. We can start to panic if on Friday it’s a raging cutter to Quebec. 

Give me a press.

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