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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Fast flow on the 6Z indicating Pacific dominant flow EPO+ continuing with with an AO+; with nothing but higher heights (500 Anomaly) on the map in fantasy land.  CFS is also being schooled by the EURO as the latest still shows overall cold until you get into Maine and up into the maritimes which show blow torch; expect the trends to continue to go warm at this point for all of North America.  

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Nah, it's not the greatest look. In fact, it's probably one area of low pressure in the GOAK away from disaster. However, the EPS is rather stormy. So it's possible that we somehow have a decent run despite a rather lousy look on paper. Overall, Hudson bay ridging may supply HP north of Maine. Combine that with an active storm track and it's possible it turns into a snowy look. 

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything looks fine. Folks losing their shit 

What’s Wills take ....bc before he *really liked the look

things seem to have trended from prolly real good to maybe sorta good 

it’s a tuff pill and ACATT won’t be a swallowing without some moaning and groaning  but we will have our chances as well as chances for cutters

we enjoy Saturday 

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What’s Wills take ....bc before he *really liked the look

things seem to have trended from prolly real good to maybe sorta good 

it’s a tuff pill and ACATT won’t be a swallowing without some moaning and groaning  but we will have our chances as well as chances for cutters

we enjoy Saturday 

He’s pretty excited 

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Probably a bit off topic, so feel free to move... Has anyone been following the abundance of volcanic activity across the globe recently? Most are aware of Taal and Whakaari, which were substantial eruptions, but there has been many more. On Tuesday, Shishaldin Volcano erupted in Alaska sending ash 25,000 ft up. Thursday, Mt Popocatepetl in Mexico erupted with a similar ash cloud. In yet another eruption, Sabancaya, in Peru blew its top recently as well. That seems like quite a bit of ash going into the atmosphere.. Anyone care to shed some light on why there has been such an uptick as of late and what/when the resulting effect on planetary weather could be?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s pretty excited 

Nah. It's ok but the really exciting look is gone. It may come back if weeklies are right in early February. The D 6-10 range is even more precarious. It could end up with a good storm but mild and cutter or no storm wouldn't be shocking. 

Ensembles do look better as we go out to 11-15 but usual caveats apply. 

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

6-10 is an unmitigated disaster.   When it was 11-15 it looked great.   Some seasons don’t give us what we want....

There's a way it could work...EPS shows how. Decent high to the north which would probably be enough with that approaching system from the south. I wouldn't get excited about this look, but it's not 2011-2012 either...though it could always still trend that way...

 

IMG_4330.PNG

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