CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Hadley cell will just melt it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Euro looks like an April look at 500mb next week. Deep winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like an April look at 500mb next week. Deep winter continues. I liked the look previous runs, but this run is ugly...bringing much lower heights into AK. Hopefully that is just the OP being clownish beyond D6, but that would be pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: You can't be 100% sure of course....but we have history to guide us. Past stretches of prolific snows that lasted a couple decades were compensated for at some point....likewise, our worst putrid stretches eventually regressed back to our long term climo. It's like flipping a coin....if you flip 10 heads in a row, you still have a 50% chance on the next flip....but you can be pretty reasonable and say "we're probably going to not keeping flipping heads every time and get plenty of tails on our next 10 flips....we'll probably also get a streak of a bunch of tails too at some point".....we just don't know exactly when. The only complication is that unlike a coin, the climate does change...both anthropogenic and natural...though if you try and take into account for that, you could argue for an even steeper regression. Though on the scale of decades, we've tended to regeress toward the long term mean even during periods of fast climate change. On the flip side though, we’ve also been through a very long stretch of little to no -NAO in the winter months, and this year seems to be continuing that trend in earnest. At some point that will need to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 All the 12z runs are setting the stage for a massive;soul crushing, weenie melting cutter around day 9 or 10 that will likely result in some epic 'winter is ova' meltdowns. If it's not going to snow, sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: On the flip side though, we’ve also been through a very long stretch of little to no -NAO in the winter months, and this year seems to be continuing that trend in earnest. At some point that will need to change. Yeah...it's been impressive that we have maintained good snowfall totals since our last true -NAO winter in 2012-2013....though we got blasted in March 2018 with a huge NAO block too. If we start getting some -NAO La Ninas again like we had a lot of in the 1960s, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2010-2011....then look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like an April look at 500mb next week. Deep winter continues. Fat lady is warming up. Another 10 days with a meager outlook... look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: All the 12z runs are setting the stage for a massive;soul crushing, weenie melting cutter around day 9 or 10 that will likely result in some epic 'winter is ova' meltdowns. If it's not going to snow, sign me up. I’ll be in Maryland that weekend, so I wouldn’t be missing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can look at recent winters vs long term and look at the departures. That corridor in SE MA that is away from the Cape and S of Boston is the most anomalous from a positive standpoint. Sure they have a higher standard deviation than many....but good lord the departures are absurd. Even in the shit winters of 15/16 and last year, I pulled near normal in 15/16 and just AN thanks to the March bomb last year. We can't keep pulling snow out of our behinds forever. ORH area has done as well as anybody in this recent stretch. They’re due for some rats just like everyone else. I think it may have been ray that said they always seem to be just far enough north west East or south to get in on good snow in this recent snowy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: All the 12z runs are setting the stage for a massive;soul crushing, weenie melting cutter around day 9 or 10 that will likely result in some epic 'winter is ova' meltdowns. If it's not going to snow, sign me up. Yeah.... I’ve about had it already. This past weekend was fantastic, hopefully more of that if we aren’t looking at legit snow prospects. Too keep it on topic... 12z runs look like a mess for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...it's been impressive that we have maintained good snowfall totals since our last true -NAO winter in 2012-2013....though we got blasted in March 2018 with a huge NAO block too. If we start getting some -NAO La Ninas again like we had a lot of in the 1960s, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2010-2011....then look out. I think what's going on regarding seasonal snow totals and the NAO is as the data set becomes larger the correlation begins to weaken and the correlation to -NAO and snow may not be what is was thought the past few decades...the same goes with ENSO phase. Over the past decade or so we're learning a specific phase doesn't necessarily hold a correlation...I remember even in the mid-to-late 2000's the notion was that a weak La Nina meant big snows in New England...not necessarily the case. It's more about structure, placement, and short-scale changes within the oscillations. For example, you can have an overall long-term pattern which sucks...but within that overall pattern regime you can have periods where that relaxes and cards align and you can get slammed. A lot of these connections are also established based on correlations to "major" or "significant" events...which leaves out alot of other data or samples. This is why I hate how alot of indices are measured by a monthly...bi-monthly...or whatever average...this doesn't truly capture those very short-lived abrupt flips and it's those periods which are going to produce some type of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: ORH area has done as well as anybody in this recent stretch. They’re due for some rats just like everyone else. I think it may have been ray that said they always seem to be just far enough north west East or south to get in on good snow in this recent snowy run ORH was comfortably below average in snowfall in '15-'16 and last year. SE MA was not...either avg or a bit above. ORH did anomalously well relative to the region as a whole in 2012-2013 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH was comfortably below average in snowfall in '15-'16 and last year. SE MA was not...either avg or a bit above. ORH did anomalously well relative to the region as a whole in 2012-2013 though. Yeah I'm fully expecting a winter of grass soon enough. We've had it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 OP Euro says "What storm next weeK?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm fully expecting a winter of grass soon enough. We've had it good. How is that unlike this one? I've had grass since for 30 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Has much changed for the period post 1/20? Is it still looking better as a whole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I might be 5 years too late with the north move But I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: OP Euro says "What storm next weeK?" No phase with the two streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Even if it were to phase, it would likely be a cutter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: I might be 5 years too late with the north move But I hope not. I moved up here from Delaware 5 years ago, it has been much improved on my average of 15 inches per year down there. But no blockbusters yet, my "bad" year last year was 35 inches....so it is all perspective, but this year has sucked since early December, only 10" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 What happened to the 2015 like pattern...went poof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm fully expecting a winter of grass soon enough. We've had it good. I did it last winter and I’ve done it 95% of this winter thus far. Not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...it's been impressive that we have maintained good snowfall totals since our last true -NAO winter in 2012-2013....though we got blasted in March 2018 with a huge NAO block too. If we start getting some -NAO La Ninas again like we had a lot of in the 1960s, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2010-2011....then look out. It seems like while the winter -NAO has been very scarce in recent years, it has usually delivered very well whenever it happened. Maybe that’s what our new climate baseline favors, so I can only imagine how a winter dominated by the -NAO would turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like an April look at 500mb next week. Deep winter continues. most of the lower 48 is above freezing at 850, at day 10, in January..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Well the EPS is diverging from the op. Still shows something in that day 9ish period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: most of the lower 48 is above freezing at 850, at day 10, in January..... Well, I got 18 in last Saturday. Played quite well. I guess I can look forward to taking a couple strokes off my game during “winter” 19-20. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like an April look at 500mb next week. Deep winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What happened to the 2015 like pattern...went poof? Yes....trended into more of just a decent western ridge pattern with this relaxation that comes first in the D7-10 range....though we still may score a storm threat in there....remains to be seen. This is if we go on the EPS. GEFS are still showing a really good pattern but the EPS has trended pretty hard the past two runs away from the EPO/PNA combo. There's probably a lot of struggle with the strong wave in the tropic that is causing these swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Muthufukka. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I liked the look previous runs, but this run is ugly...bringing much lower heights into AK. Hopefully that is just the OP being clownish beyond D6, but that would be pretty ugly. But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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