SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I think it’s OK to bring in the potential impact of climate change on weather patterns particularly when it’s relevant to current patterns. I’m sorry if that triggers people but it’s relevant as long as it doesn’t move into a discussion that’s only about climate change. The melts have already begun and it's not even January yet. Imagine the chaos when it's in the 60s and 70s Jan 15-20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Good stuff @ORH_wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I think it’s OK to bring in the potential impact of climate change on weather patterns particularly when it’s relevant to current patterns. I’m sorry if that triggers people but it’s relevant as long as it doesn’t move into a discussion that’s only about climate change. Ok if short and concise but 3 reposts of Wills post. You want to discuss climate change we have an entire subforum filled with opinions. Lots and lots of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Canadian really deepens the low and slows down to drop some white to end too. Maybe we can get a little block East of Hudson Bay with this, but it needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The melts have already begun and it's not even January yet. Imagine the chaos when it's in the 60s and 70s Jan 15-20. After that period, we will start the wet/warm, cold/dry pattern for 10-15 days....that is when it will get really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Wtf are you talking about? I didn't say anything about catastrophic climate change. Theres something wrong with you man. It was a joke Nick. Lol Happy New Year. What exactly is wrong with me. Lighten up Francis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Ok if short and concise but 3 reposts of Wills post. You want to discuss climate change we have an entire subforum filled with opinions. Lots and lots of them. No I won’t do that. It’s relevant to the current pattern in the largest sense, and Wills post was, then it’s relevant and I’ll talk about it. It’s OK if you don’t like that. If a mod decides it’s off-topic then we’ll take it from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: It was a joke Nick. Lol Happy New Year. What exactly is wrong with me. Lighten up Francis Calling me a doomer when I literally said there was no agw signal here seems really silly. But whatever. Happy new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yeah ok snowflake. You have all the snowflakes. I have bare ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Calling me a doomer when I literally said there was no agw signal here seems really silly. But whatever. Happy new year. Triggered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 This would fix us: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Triggered? Yes some agw talk upset you enough to swear about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: No I won’t do that. It’s relevant to the current pattern in the largest sense, and Wills post was, then it’s relevant and I’ll talk about it. It’s OK if you don’t like that. If a mod decides it’s off-topic then we’ll take it from there. Its totally irrelevant to the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 How in the sam hell are people drinking already? It’s not even noon . Pace yourselves. Long way to go to midnite 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yes some agw talk upset you enough to swear about it. Oh sorry I didn't realize you all of a sudden found God. I will refrain Saint Nick from swearing around you. Geezuz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Ginxy is good people...he just once in a while steps in dog doo....but we still love him whether he has it on his shoes or not. Back to the next storm....yeah Scooter...GGEM shows how to get some snow at the end. GFS was close (and so was Euro actually). 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Oh sorry I didn't realize you all of a sudden found God. I will refrain Saint Nick from swearing around you. Geezuz Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Its totally irrelevant to the current pattern. Probably wrong unless you don’t think that big Picture temperature patterns don’t have effects on current weather. That seems myopic but of course CC doesn’t explain everything about a given pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Fukin climate change has its own subforum. How dare you????!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah agreed.... the skiing stuff is crap....mom and pop ski areas used to function sometimes for like 20-30 days out of the winter...whenever they had natural snowfall, and they'd be closed when a cutter wiped it out. Most of them closed because of a combo of interstate highways making the larger mountains more accessible and the rise of lawsuits which small areas mostly couldn't afford to deal with. CC had very little to do with it....most of them actually closed during a very cold period in the 1970s. I learned to ski on absolute garbage in the 1990-1992 timeframe. We had bare ground on half of the killington ski trails and the ones that had snow were like icy death ribbons. I could only have been so lucky to learn to ski in the 2010s when ski trails have been mostly packed to brim with snow. This myth that we had some sort of skiing utopia where Joe's ski hill in Southington CT could be open 90 days a winter with full cover is totally a figment of climate weenie's imagination. Being critical of that 20th century utopia narrative does NOT make one a climate denier either...I hear that garbage all the time too from climate weenies...usually in an attempt to shut down the debate...it's easier to paint one with a pejorative than actually read some literature or look at data. Hyping up a narrative is just as bad as discounting climate change exists....both are anti-science. CC makes a torch more likely...events like March 2012 are more likely due to CC as well as torch winters like 2015-2016, and those record warm months that come with such winters. But on the flip side, this seems to be offset somewhat by more snowfall in recent years. Could be a result of more moisture and also an increase in frequency of the "warm arctic, cold continents" pattern. The temperature increase is also not uniform. The minimum temperatures are increasing about 40% faster than maximum temperatures mostly due to radiational cooling on clear nights....and because of this, it will have less impact on a snowstorm or snow retention versus if the temperature increase was uniformly increasing. Whether we radiate to 12F versus 14F or 15F isn't going to impact a snowstorm as much as maximum temperatures in cloudy/precipitation situations. Our winter time maximum temperatures are warming at roughly 0.35F per decade while the minimum temps are like 0.4 to 0.5F per decade. The mid-level temps for New England in the D,J,F period have warmed even slower than the surface and this is important since mid-level temps are more important to our snowfall than sfc temps...as far back as we can go (1949), the trend has only been about 0.13C per decade, which comes out to about 0.23F per decade converted into Fahrenheit....even slower than our maximum sfc temp rise and about half the rate of the minimum sfc temp rise. In the literature, extratropical storm tracks overall have shifted slightly poleward in our area since the middle 20th century, but not enough to explain a cutter over Buffalo versus a redeveloper over Cape Cod...that difference is way beyond the net effects of CC. I think the easiest way to think of CC is that it is an underlying trend that gets dwarfed on a seasonal and sub-seasonal basis by natural variability. We can't get our coldest month of all time (Feb 2015) in a world where CC warming overwhelms natural variability on that type of timescale. The months like February 2015 become less likely in a warming world, but they still obviously happen. It happened in 1934....and we somehow repeated those temps (and then some) 81 years later. Likewise, 1949 is still the warmest summer on record in Massachusetts....CC warming will eventually ensure that we break that record, but we haven't broken it yet because natural variability still reigns supreme for the time being. Good post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 This is kind of what you want to look for....GGEM has some pretty good energy going underneath SNE which is why it tries to throw some light snow behind as it exits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: How in the sam hell are people drinking already? It’s not even noon . Pace yourselves. Long way to go to midnite Start early for the turn of the decade (even if the calendar purists disagree). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ginxy is good people...he just once in a while steps in dog doo....but we still love him whether he has it on his shoes or not. Back to the next storm....yeah Scooter...GGEM shows how to get some snow at the end. GFS was close (and so was Euro actually). Someone see a pattern here. We talked extensively about the Eastern Canada cyrosphere and modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is kind of what you want to look for....GGEM has some pretty good energy going underneath SNE which is why it tries to throw some light snow behind as it exits Looks a little too late for 90% of us. But, there are still a few days to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Looks a little too late for 90% of us. But, there are still a few days to play with. I wouldn't expect much of anything yet....but it wouldn't be shocking if there was like an inch or two at the end if that trend persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is kind of what you want to look for....GGEM has some pretty good energy going underneath SNE which is why it tries to throw some light snow behind as it exits ULL under SNE. I’m all in and emotionally invested 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: ULL under SNE. I’m all in and emotionally invested Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches. Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: How dare you????!!!! Happy New Year Mike. Nice to see you ended it with white on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 40 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Nice. I find it interesting theres no signal here. I think were too correlated to winter blocking regimes...50s warm...80s cold. Yeah you might have a really strong correlation to the AMO decadal cycle perhaps? Which also seems to loosely follow the NAO decadal cycles. The '80s bottomed out and were frigid....you see it in the Greenland temps too where they were torching in the 1940s/early 1950s and then went into an ice box with really cold stuff in the 1970s and 1980s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches. Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm I always feel like the ukmet has a se bias like the navgem. Anyone else find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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