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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I think it’s OK to bring in the potential impact of climate change on weather patterns particularly when it’s relevant to current patterns. I’m sorry if that triggers people but it’s relevant as long as it doesn’t move into a discussion that’s only about climate change.

The melts have already begun and it's not even January yet.

Imagine the chaos when it's in the 60s and 70s Jan 15-20.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I think it’s OK to bring in the potential impact of climate change on weather patterns particularly when it’s relevant to current patterns. I’m sorry if that triggers people but it’s relevant as long as it doesn’t move into a discussion that’s only about climate change.

Ok if short and concise but 3 reposts of Wills post. You  want to discuss climate change we have an entire subforum filled with opinions. Lots and lots of them. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ok if short and concise but 3 reposts of Wills post. You  want to discuss climate change we have an entire subforum filled with opinions. Lots and lots of them. 

No I won’t do that. It’s relevant to the current pattern in the largest sense, and Wills post was, then it’s relevant and I’ll talk about it. It’s OK if you don’t like that. If a mod decides it’s off-topic then we’ll take it from there.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

No I won’t do that. It’s relevant to the current pattern in the largest sense, and Wills post was, then it’s relevant and I’ll talk about it. It’s OK if you don’t like that. If a mod decides it’s off-topic then we’ll take it from there.

Its totally irrelevant to the current pattern.  

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Ginxy is good people...he just once in a while steps in dog doo....but we still love him whether he has it on his shoes or not.

 

Back to the next storm....yeah Scooter...GGEM shows how to get some snow at the end. GFS was close (and so was Euro actually).

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53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah agreed.... the skiing stuff is crap....mom and pop ski areas used to function sometimes for like 20-30 days out of the winter...whenever they had natural snowfall, and they'd be closed when a cutter wiped it out. Most of them closed because of a combo of interstate highways making the larger mountains more accessible and the rise of lawsuits which small areas mostly couldn't afford to deal with. CC had very little to do with it....most of them actually closed during a very cold period in the 1970s. I learned to ski on absolute garbage in the 1990-1992 timeframe. We had bare ground on half of the killington ski trails and the ones that had snow were like icy death ribbons. I could only have been so lucky to learn to ski in the 2010s when ski trails have been mostly packed to brim with snow.

 

This myth that we had some sort of skiing utopia where Joe's ski hill in Southington CT could be open 90 days a winter with full cover is totally a figment of climate weenie's imagination.

 

Being critical of that 20th century utopia narrative does NOT make one a climate denier either...I hear that garbage all the time too from climate weenies...usually in an attempt to shut down the debate...it's easier to paint one with a pejorative than actually read some literature or look at data. Hyping up a narrative is just as bad as discounting climate change exists....both are anti-science.

 

CC makes a torch more likely...events like March 2012 are more likely due to CC as well as torch winters like 2015-2016, and those record warm months that come with such winters. But on the flip side, this seems to be offset somewhat by more snowfall in recent years. Could be a result of more moisture and also an increase in frequency of the "warm arctic, cold continents" pattern. The temperature increase is also not uniform. The minimum temperatures are increasing about 40% faster than maximum temperatures mostly due to radiational cooling on clear nights....and because of this, it will have less impact on a snowstorm or snow retention versus if the temperature increase was uniformly increasing. Whether we radiate to 12F versus 14F or 15F isn't going to impact a snowstorm as much as maximum temperatures in cloudy/precipitation situations. Our winter time maximum temperatures are warming at roughly 0.35F per decade while the minimum temps are like 0.4 to 0.5F per decade.

The mid-level temps for New England in the D,J,F period have warmed even slower than the surface and this is important since mid-level temps are more important to our snowfall than sfc temps...as far back as we can go (1949), the trend has only been about 0.13C per decade, which comes out to about 0.23F per decade converted into Fahrenheit....even slower than our maximum sfc temp rise and about half the rate of the minimum sfc temp rise. Northeast_850mb_trend.thumb.png.48c673ecf30b486c12d9852a0dcb653b.png

 

Northeast_maxTemp_trend.png.457296df2f1414e5d36b3b723e69910a.png

 

Northeast_minTemp_trend.png.b7c90b75e1e4215b2daaa9fd6101f3f6.png

 

 

In the literature, extratropical storm tracks overall have shifted slightly poleward in our area since the middle 20th century, but not enough to explain a cutter over Buffalo versus a redeveloper over Cape Cod...that difference is way beyond the net effects of CC. I think the easiest way to think of CC is that it is an underlying trend that gets dwarfed on a seasonal and sub-seasonal basis by natural variability. We can't get our coldest month of all time (Feb 2015) in a world where CC warming overwhelms natural variability on that type of timescale. The months like February 2015 become less likely in a warming world, but they still obviously happen. It happened in 1934....and we somehow repeated those temps (and then some) 81 years later. Likewise, 1949 is still the warmest summer on record in Massachusetts....CC warming will eventually ensure that we break that record, but we haven't broken it yet because natural variability still reigns supreme for the time being.

Good post. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ginxy is good people...he just once in a while steps in dog doo....but we still love him whether he has it on his shoes or not.

 

Back to the next storm....yeah Scooter...GGEM shows how to get some snow at the end. GFS was close (and so was Euro actually).

Someone see a pattern here. We talked extensively about the Eastern Canada cyrosphere and modeling. 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Looks a little too late for 90% of us.  But, there are still a few days to play with.

I wouldn't expect much of anything yet....but it wouldn't be shocking if there was like an inch or two at the end if that trend persists.

 

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

ULL under SNE. I’m all in and emotionally invested 

Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches.

 

Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm

 

 

Dec31_12zUkie96.gif

Dec31_12zUkie120.gif

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40 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Nice. I find it interesting theres no signal here. I think were too correlated to winter blocking regimes...50s warm...80s cold. 

Yeah you might have a really strong correlation to the AMO decadal cycle perhaps? Which also seems to loosely follow the NAO decadal cycles. The '80s bottomed out and were frigid....you see it in the Greenland temps too where they were torching in the 1940s/early 1950s and then went into an ice box with really cold stuff in the 1970s and 1980s.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches.

 

Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm

 

 

Dec31_12zUkie96.gif

Dec31_12zUkie120.gif

I always feel like the ukmet has a se bias like the navgem. Anyone else find that?

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