January 2020 Discussion

[alex]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure what you mean by "limited" but there's enough cold in SNE on the mean. 

Its a weakish signal and 9 day out so yeah, I wouldn't get hopes up. 

 

Someone should start a thread

[CoastalWx]

53 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep, hearing the same whispers. The strat guys think the pv starts to weaken in the middle of the month. I don’t think the mjo will be a big player going forward. I just really want to see that vortex get punted. I think that’s why the weeklies looked good after the 5th. It has the pv  more elongated to provide us will cold air and a pac ridge. It’s basically the look at the end of the eps rolled forward. 
 

For nne/sne the airmass is definitely serviceable next week. 
 

Ahh the strat voodoo. Take a look at what the strat looked like on our run in 2015. Probably not what you envisioned. 

[MJO812]

Here we go again with a 240 hour snowstorm on the gfs

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh the strat voodoo. Take a look at what the strat looked like on our run in 2015. Probably not what you envisioned. 

Strat was awful in 2015, but I'm not sure what your point is. I think most understand that you can get by without it, but its insurance against what we are now enduring.

The big PNA failed this month..is the PNA voodoo?

[Hazey]

Here we go again with a 240 hour snowstorm on the gfs

Don’t fall for it until you see the whites of its eyes.

[Ginx snewx]

Can we move the Debbie's to the.panic room please. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can we move the Debbie's to the.panic room please. 

Thus my Debruary comment earlier.   There is little indication that we are done with winter in SNE. 

[tombo82685]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strat was awful in 2015, but I'm not sure what your point is. I think most understand that you can gwt by without it, but its insurance against what we are now enduring.

I thought the strat was pretty good in 2015 with a weak vortex IMO. The vortex in 2015 was disturbed from strong wave 1 hits in Jan and first part of February. Also can see the positioning of it at 10mb from jan1-mar 1 was more favorable for dumping cold into the US unlike right now. From what I have seen when we have strat ridging over AK or Scandinavia it seems to teleconnect better to colder dumps into the US. 

 

[Hazey]

The takeaway from that gfs run is ‘active’. That’s like a storm riding up the coast every 4-5 days. You get enough bullets fired at ya, sooner or later your bound to get hit. I like that look if it holds but as modelling has shown us this year, anything can happen.

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strat was awful in 2015, but I'm not sure what your point is. I think most understand that you can get by without it, but its insurance against what we are now enduring.

The big PNA failed this month..is the PNA voodoo?

The Pv gaining strength coupled with the strat allowed for the coldest air to stay by the pole. I’m not saying we need a voodoo SSW but a better alignment of the pv would help get colder air into the conus. Currently we have a putrid airmass for these threats coming up.  Obviously NNE/Sne can snow in the heart of January in lots of patterns, but for us down here we need a better airmass. 
 

The huge pna obviously was model fantasy but it has improved to allow more of a southern storm track. We don’t have a -pna anymore and if we did it would have definitely sent more mild air across the conus with the vortex in Ak. 

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strat was awful in 2015, but I'm not sure what your point is. I think most understand that you can get by without it, but its insurance against what we are now enduring.

The big PNA failed this month..is the PNA voodoo?

It was on the other side of the pole end of Jan into Feb 2015. So much for needing it on our side. Just goes to show you the other things like MJO and other sub seasonal variables matter more.

[CoastalWx]

Look at 50mb. That was towards Siberia. 

[CoastalWx]

Every year it’s another version of solar or PV somehow being made into something much more important than it should  be. Sure it matters to a point, but we are giving something that virtually has a physical boundary that separates the troposphere to the stratosphere, way too much power in governing  our weather. It’s the same with the warm blob NPAC argument. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Every year it’s another version of solar or PV somehow being made into something much more important than it should  be. Sure it matters to a point, but we are giving something that virtually has a physical boundary that separates the troposphere to the stratosphere, way too much power in governing  our weather. It’s the same with the warm blob NPAC argument. 

Same with MJO IOD, lots of speculation.  No one gives credit to a combination of so many variables its beyond our understanding right now. People try but just can't predict when a 2015 will occur 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Same with MJO IOD, lots of speculation.  No one gives credit to a combination of so many variables its beyond our understanding right now. People try but just can't predict when a 2015 will occur 

MJO is a lot more influential IMHO...or at least the convection in that area regardless of the "official" MJO phase. It's just kind of hard to predict so we can't really say in advance of when a standing wave there is going to promote a 2015 pattern for 3 weeks. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Every year it’s another version of solar or PV somehow being made into something much more important than it should  be. Sure it matters to a point, but we are giving something that virtually has a physical boundary that separates the troposphere to the stratosphere, way too much power in governing  our weather. It’s the same with the warm blob NPAC argument. 

It most of our snowy winters (down here) we didn’t have that warm blob in the NPAC. IMO I think warm waters in that spot helps Lows sit south of Ak. So yeah, I’m not a big fan of that argument.

Don't you think the PV being so strong has kept us mild overall? It’s been pretty toasty across the country since mid December. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is a lot more influential IMHO...or at least the convection in that area regardless of the "official" MJO phase. It's just kind of hard to predict so we can't really say in advance of when a standing wave there is going to promote a 2015 pattern for 3 weeks. 

Some think so some dont. Like I said you can point to a reason and the next year the same thing happens and poof. We try and fail every winter. I am totally convinced LR is voodoo for the most part.  

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Same with MJO IOD, lots of speculation.  No one gives credit to a combination of so many variables its beyond our understanding right now. People try but just can't predict when a 2015 will occur 

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is a lot more influential IMHO...or at least the convection in that area regardless of the "official" MJO phase. It's just kind of hard to predict so we can't really say in advance of when a standing wave there is going to promote a 2015 pattern for 3 weeks. 

I think it’s definitely has a hand in our weather Pattern. It matters more imo from NYC south then say you guys. You can snow in p6 more easily then I can. That’s why I avg 20 and you guys avg 60. 

[tombo82685]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was on the other side of the pole end of Jan into Feb 2015. So much for needing it on our side. Just goes to show you the other things like MJO and other sub seasonal variables matter more.

What would you say played a role in the 2015 feb pattern? To me it seemed like the strat played a role more so than the mjo. I think how the pv is aligned is more important than where it's at. It can be located in Siberia but if the alignment is right it still can bring cold air into the states. The MJO plots I have access to show the mjo mainly in cod then into 6-7 which  don't scream the cold we got.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It most of our snowy winters (down here) we didn’t have that warm blob in the NPAC. IMO I think warm waters in that spot helps Lows sit south of Ak. So yeah, I’m not a big fan of that argument.

Don't you think the PV being so strong has kept us mild overall? It’s been pretty toasty across the country since mid December. 

Placement of the PV is more important then the strength. It’s been in a shitty spot. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Every year it’s another version of solar or PV somehow being made into something much more important than it should  be. Sure it matters to a point, but we are giving something that virtually has a physical boundary that separates the troposphere to the stratosphere, way too much power in governing  our weather. It’s the same with the warm blob NPAC argument. 

Well, I agree that basing your entire outlook on it, like Judah, is foolish. No argument.

But it certainly helps more often than not...there are exceptions, like last year.

[CoastalWx]

54 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

What would you say played a role in the 2015 feb pattern? To me it seemed like the strat played a role more so than the mjo. I think how the pv is aligned is more important than where it's at. It can be located in Siberia but if the alignment is right it still can bring cold air into the states. The MJO plots I have access to show the mjo mainly in cod then into 6-7 which  don't scream the cold we got.

So I do believe in MJO stuff like Tip. IE constructive/destructive type setups. Like Will said it’s difficult to predict, but the physics behind it play a role with the whole Rossby wave train, especially in the NPAC. That’s traditionally where we look, but it circles the globe. Many argue how fast or slow it circles the globe...in fact some even think it’s a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. We really don’t know a ton about it. In any case Ventrice showed me an example (I’ll try to find it tomorrow) of a low frequency standing wave pattern responsible for the 13-14, and 14-15 winter. I’m sure it’s not everything, but I was pretty impressed by it. So that definitely played a role. 
 

By no means am I saying that the strat PV doesn’t matter. I think it does. I do cringe when some make a forecast based on the strat over Siberia on the gfs op run. I feel like we’re always trying to find a smoking gun. Perhaps a few times we used the PV to forecast and it worked. But in my mind, I don’t see how that alone could be successful. 
 

I’m not sure what’s going on. Perhaps this new temperature regime with warm water everywhere is really screwing up analogs. Every vendor I saw including WSI was thinking cold. Instead it’s near record warmth since 12-1 over a large part of the conus. We really don’t have a lot of skill unless we know it’s a strong Nina or Nino. This winter is bringing a big slice of humble pie to many long range calls. 

[512high]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

So I do believe in MJO stuff like Tip. IE constructive/destructive type setups. Like Will said it’s difficult to predict, but the physics behind it play a role with the whole Rossby wave train, especially in the NPAC. That’s traditionally where we look, but it circles the globe. Many argue how fast or slow it circles the globe...in fact some even think it’s a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. We really don’t know a ton about it. In any case Ventrice showed me an example (I’ll try to find it tomorrow) of a low frequency standing wave pattern responsible for the 13-14, and 14-15 winter. I’m sure it’s not everything, but I was pretty impressed by it. So that definitely played a role. 
 

By no means am I saying that the strat PV doesn’t matter. I think it does. I do cringe when some make a forecast based on the strat over Siberia on the gfs op run. I feel like we’re always trying to find a smoking gun. Perhaps a few times we used the PV to forecast and it worked. But in my mind, I don’t see how that alone could be successful. 
 

I’m not sure what’s going on. Perhaps this new temperature regime with warm water everywhere is really screwing up analogs. Every vendor I saw including WSI was thinking cold. Instead it’s near record warmth since 12-1 over a large part of the conus. We really don’t have a lot of skill unless we know it’s a strong Nina or Nino. This winter is bringing a big slice of humble pie to many long range calls. 

Scott, seeing this thread is quite right now let me ask you, have you ever called someone like Judah out on twitter based on his long range forecast ,or does he back track and say "I never said that" just wondering......

[NYCweatherNOW]

What did I miss today? I forgot my phone at home and didn’t track? Any potential for next week cause I seen saturdays storm it’s gone!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 512high said:

Scott, seeing this thread is quite right now let me ask you, have you ever called someone like Judah out on twitter based on his long range forecast ,or does he back track and say "I never said that" just wondering......

I try to avoid doing that and keeping things more professional. To be honest, I haven’t followed him much this year so I couldn’t tell you if I agree or disagree with what he’s thinking. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So I do believe in MJO stuff like Tip. IE constructive/destructive type setups. Like Will said it’s difficult to predict, but the physics behind it play a role with the whole Rossby wave train, especially in the NPAC. That’s traditionally where we look, but it circles the globe. Many argue how fast or slow it circles the globe...in fact some even think it’s a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. We really don’t know a ton about it. In any case Ventrice showed me an example (I’ll try to find it tomorrow) of a low frequency standing wave pattern responsible for the 13-14, and 14-15 winter. I’m sure it’s not everything, but I was pretty impressed by it. So that definitely played a role. 
 

By no means am I saying that the strat PV doesn’t matter. I think it does. I do cringe when some make a forecast based on the strat over Siberia on the gfs op run. I feel like we’re always trying to find a smoking gun. Perhaps a few times we used the PV to forecast and it worked. But in my mind, I don’t see how that alone could be successful. 
 

I’m not sure what’s going on. Perhaps this new temperature regime with warm water everywhere is really screwing up analogs. Every vendor I saw including WSI was thinking cold. Instead it’s near record warmth since 12-1 over a large part of the conus. We really don’t have a lot of skill unless we know it’s a strong Nina or Nino. This winter is bringing a big slice of humble pie to many long range calls. 

I think we also have to remember that even the best seasonal forecasters are prob busting pretty bad at least 30-40% of the time. 

There's a lot of innovative thought out there but it's still in the frontier of meteorology. I even remember as far back as 1994-1995....I remember hearing like 3 different mets on TV reference multiple seasonal forecasts that were honking for a big El Niño winter. Obviously it was the opposite...lol. Despite it being a weakish west based Niño. We all remember 2001-2002...how many cold forecasts were there that winter?

I do think it's easy to get stuck in tunnel vision...we all do it. The mid/late 2010s has us obsessing over the PAC. But the NAO (even if transient) is what gave us our big December storm. Our lack of big NAO blocks since 2013 has definitely been notable so it makes the PAC seem more important and it's probably why we are obsessing over it...when we don't have the Atlantic help it is harder to cover up a shitty PAC. We had deep western troughs for a chunk of 2010-2011 but we shrugged it off because of prolific ATL blocking. Even in late December 2008 and early January 2009...garbage PAC but we covered it up because our one great ATL block happened during that time. 

In 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 we didn't care hat we had a +AO because the one small domain of the PAC that mattered most was obscenely favorable. We didn't care that there was a black hole over Baffin Island. But in the long run, black holes over Baffin Island come back to haunt us because we get killed when the PAC goes bad in that setup. 

 

[weathafella]

12 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wut?  Long range modeling showing pattern changes to a wintrier pattern have fallen flat every time they've shown up. It's the winter of modeling showing a pattern change perpetually in the 10-14 day range.

So you’re saying the past 7 days hasn’t been wintry?  That was advertised 2 weeks ago.   Now 2 weeks before that looked bad....and we got a mega torch.  2 weeks prior meh.   I think long range has had somewhat of a handle most of the time.  The sustained cold failed however.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think we also have to remember that even the best seasonal forecasters are prob busting pretty bad at least 30-40% of the time. 

There's a lot of innovative thought out there but it's still in the frontier of meteorology. I even remember as far back as 1994-1995....I remember hearing like 3 different mets on TV reference multiple seasonal forecasts that were honking for a big El Niño winter. Obviously it was the opposite...lol. Despite it being a weakish west based Niño. We all remember 2001-2002...how many cold forecasts were there that winter?

I do think it's easy to get stuck in tunnel vision...we all do it. The mid/late 2010s has us obsessing over the PAC. But the NAO (even if transient) is what gave us our big December storm. Our lack of big NAO blocks since 2013 has definitely been notable so it makes the PAC seem more important and it's probably why we are obsessing over it...when we don't have the Atlantic help it is harder to cover up a shitty PAC. We had deep western troughs for a chunk of 2010-2011 but we shrugged it off because of prolific ATL blocking. Even in late December 2008 and early January 2009...garbage PAC but we covered it up because our one great ATL block happened during that time. 

In 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 we didn't care hat we had a +AO because the one small domain of the PAC that mattered most was obscenely favorable. We didn't care that there was a black hole over Baffin Island. But in the long run, black holes over Baffin Island come back to haunt us because we get killed when the PAC goes bad in that setup. 

 

It’s been like pulling teeth with the NAO to go negative. We’ve had brief stretches (hell a month in 2018), but it’s been all out positive overall as you said. At some point it will turn around though. Just like our stretch of favorable PAC regimes will turn too and possibly become more unfavorable.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

So you’re saying the past 7 days hasn’t been wintry?  That was advertised 2 weeks ago.   Now 2 weeks before that looked bad....and we got a mega torch.  2 weeks prior meh.   I think long range has had somewhat of a handle most of the time.  The sustained cold failed however.

The big respite we have had since 12-20 or whatever was modeled too. The collapse though of a more favorable look, was a surprise. At least to me. Back in early Jan that looked like game on. Obviously that didn’t work out. 

[tombo82685]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So I do believe in MJO stuff like Tip. IE constructive/destructive type setups. Like Will said it’s difficult to predict, but the physics behind it play a role with the whole Rossby wave train, especially in the NPAC. That’s traditionally where we look, but it circles the globe. Many argue how fast or slow it circles the globe...in fact some even think it’s a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. We really don’t know a ton about it. In any case Ventrice showed me an example (I’ll try to find it tomorrow) of a low frequency standing wave pattern responsible for the 13-14, and 14-15 winter. I’m sure it’s not everything, but I was pretty impressed by it. So that definitely played a role. 
 

By no means am I saying that the strat PV doesn’t matter. I think it does. I do cringe when some make a forecast based on the strat over Siberia on the gfs op run. I feel like we’re always trying to find a smoking gun. Perhaps a few times we used the PV to forecast and it worked. But in my mind, I don’t see how that alone could be successful. 
 

I’m not sure what’s going on. Perhaps this new temperature regime with warm water everywhere is really screwing up analogs. Every vendor I saw including WSI was thinking cold. Instead it’s near record warmth since 12-1 over a large part of the conus. We really don’t have a lot of skill unless we know it’s a strong Nina or Nino. This winter is bringing a big slice of humble pie to many long range calls. 

No I definitely agree, I would never make a forecast like Judah does solely basing off the PV as there are ways around it. You can have a strong pv and still have a cold winter. I do believe though, when you get disruptions to the strat pv that can down-well and cause favorable conditions for cold outbreaks. I enjoy the mjo stuff, I think it's neat how the tropics alter patterns. I think it was the fall of 2013 where the tropical pacific had a lot of re-curving typhoons and the wavebreaks from those re curves just kept reinforcing the -epo look. A good example of a strong standing wave was this fall with the standing wave over the IO. That sucker lasted for months and pretty much had a strangle hold over the tropics.