MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This winter seems like a March snowmageddon will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't really remember great snow patterns being modeled for the east in the extended range overall, except this one that hasn't worked out around now. Except for a two day period within the last two and a half weeks in most of Nova Scotia we have been extremely lucky to go through such a good period of snow accumulation in such a pattern not conducive to snow, it came down to luck but we are still on a general trend of ending on a below average season for many areas the 3rd straight season. The further south you are the more likely you will still have below average snowfall for January alone. If anything excites me regarding this pattern is that if I wish to I can certainly get out my Georgraphic Information System (QGIS) and plot out the temperatures and overall precipitation amounts. And what disappoints me is the awful tracking of recent historical records that are in my opinion not tracked very well regarding snowfall, as if plotting only snow cover; you do not account for gained snowfall prior to changeovers to rain which is melted the next day. Kentville reported 2 cm on the ground on Christmas Day but the surrounding area outside the research station was largely bare and therefore that is false information to conclude a white Christmas for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Aren’t we on or around the date DIT said the pattern change was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I bet not. Lol....I'd be worried about my call if I were you. I think there's a much better chance we Rat out going forward, than flip to anything decent. I appreciate your work and dedication in putting out your LR Forecast, so I hope your Feb call works out for you, and for all of us. But I'm very skeptical now....the Ratter season is very Close imo. Hope I'm wrong and you're right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 46 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's hard to be positive living near bath water. True but gfs as depicted would be snow. Those thermals are laughable. Doesn’t really matter as a d11 op run never pans out anyway...but that particular solution shouldn’t be the one that forces you to walk across the FDR during rush hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol....I'd be worried about my call if I were you. I think there's a much better chance we Rat out going forward, than flip to anything decent. I appreciate your work and dedication in putting out your LR Forecast, so I hope your Feb call works out for you, and for all of us. But I'm very skeptical now....the Ratter season is very Close imo. Hope I'm wrong and you're right though. I'm not worried... I think you are under the impression that I have this epic second half, like last year. I don't. I have some blocking showing up in Feb or March to salvage a decent second half in the face of an awful Pacific. I am on point, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: This winter seems like a March snowmageddon will happen. I wouldn't be suprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not worried... I think you are under the impression that I have this epic second half, like last year. I don't. I have some blocking showing up in Feb or March to salvage a decent second half in the face of an awful Pacific. I am on point, so far. I think your seasonal forecast is pretty spot on so far. Respect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't really remember great snow patterns being modeled for the east in the extended range overall, except this one that hasn't worked out around now. Agreed. We go through the same nonsense every winter. Sometimes beginning as early as mid-November talk will begin about how the pattern looks "great" around Thanksgiving...then that gets delayed until early December...then it's around Christmas...then it's after Christmas...then it's after the New Year...then it's mid-month...then it's as we move into late month/February...then climo finally takes over and everyone claims win handing out high-fives for calling for the pattern change that took two months to occur. The problem is too many want to verify patterns based on whether they got to use a ruler in their backyard to measure snow...or one model run (ensemble or a weekly or whatever) throws up an H5 pattern that yields pants tents and all of a sudden "the pattern is going to change" b/c that run indicated it's going to happen and everyone starts running with it and once we hit that certain time stamp the signal vanishes as given the NH configuration it was unlikely to begin with. Since fall and through now we have seen highly erratic medium-to-long range pattern consistency within the models (likely as a result of a volatile Pacific with periods of increased MJO activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't really remember great snow patterns being modeled for the east in the extended range overall, except this one that hasn't worked out around now. One other time. In either very late November or early December there was a stretch of 2-3 days where models looked very good in the 11-15 and then they immediately flipped to show the warm shift in mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think your seasonal forecast is pretty spot on so far. Respect. Maybe next year I am awful, like last year...bottom line is that the failures inform the successes. The moment you think that you have it figured out is the moment that you are back to the drawing board. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol....I'd be worried about my call if I were you. I think there's a much better chance we Rat out going forward, than flip to anything decent. I appreciate your work and dedication in putting out your LR Forecast, so I hope your Feb call works out for you, and for all of us. But I'm very skeptical now....the Ratter season is very Close imo. Hope I'm wrong and you're right though. I agree. Until the overall storm track(s) changes it is going to be difficult to have sustained cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe next year I am awfu, like last year...bottom line is that the failures inform the successes. The moment you think that you have it figured out is the moment that you are back to the drawing board. You know Ray I am one that wants snow on the ground from Dec-Mar, with storms in between, no Rain in jan @ 36F......I know wishful thinking. Did any long range mets see this coming(pattern)? Or are they baffled with that PIG sitting up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Maybe some well-timed HP on the GFS for the next one? Another thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: This winter seems like a March snowmageddon will happen. It could go one of two ways, either it follows the early 2010s warm/dry March pattern or the cold/snowy late 2010s pattern. Given the identical resemblance to last year, Nino status, MJO, NAO/AO parameters from Oct till now & a cold November/near normal December and now warm Jan/Feb? it seems more likely we'll follow the late 2010s pattern. We'll have to see if a SSW event starts showing up by mid Feb as that would guarantee a cold/blocky March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 There actually seems to be a decent pattern setting up in the day 8-10 range. Not super long-range, enough to give the overall 500mb pattern some credence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The GFS is about to crazy around the turn of the month, but there is support on the EPS and Euro for a decent ridge out west to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 GFS brewing up another biggie for the end of the month. Atleast it remains active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: GFS brewing up another biggie for the end of the month. Atleast it remains active. NAO going negative around there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Gfs is quite stormy for the next 2 weeks thanks to the pna ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The GFS is about to crazy around the turn of the month, but there is support on the EPS and Euro for a decent ridge out west to form. 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is quite stormy for the next 2 weeks thanks to the pna ridge. I’ll Believe it when that look is in the 5 day range or less. This year is so volatile even in the medium range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll Believe it when that look is in the 5 day range or less. This year is so volatile even in the medium range. Definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 CMC looks different around that time period too, looks to be some blocking that is forcing that storm south. GFS, not so much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Another deep interior snowstorm, yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Another deep interior snowstorm, yay. Yep , no cold air. Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: CMC looks different around that time period too, looks to be some blocking that is forcing that storm south. GFS, not so much.... We’re either too far west for the late developers or too far east or south for the huggers...or too far north for mid ATL Miller A’s. I’m beginning to despise this area for KUs. Need to move NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re either too far west for the late developers or too far east or south for the huggers...or too far north for mid ATL Miller A’s. I’m beginning to despise this area for KUs. Need to move NE. Lol and as soon as you move...the Miller A's that bomb the west crowd will be back. Or you'll get suppression depression cuz the NAO will dive big time Neggy, and push everything south of your new location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Another deep interior snowstorm, yay. Things will turn around in Debruary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol and as soon as you move...the Miller A's that bomb the west crowd will be back. Or you'll get suppression depression cuz the NAO will dive big time Neggy, and push everything south of your new location. I may have an opportunity in two years to relocate to our sister company in Framingham MA. We’ll see. As a weenie, the Orh area would be ideal. Until then, I have to scratch and scrape for every shortwave to deliver THE one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Look at how remarkable the Op 12z GFS is with the H just off the west coast of Cali. That thing barely budges thru 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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