dryslot Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 12:33 PM, jbenedet said: Synoptic wave development. Disturbance cuts off quickly = Minimal downstream UL ridging. Most ironic thing to me is the fact that SNE folks are the ones complainin’ most about this potential, meanwhile NNE is where the greatest “non-event“ risk lies... With time this is looking more like an SNE and Northern mid Atlantic snowstorm to me, but everyone in those areas focused on marginal temps that won’t matter if the Synoptics pan out. Expand Kind of have to agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 12:52 PM, dendrite said: What's the old rule of thumb? The heaviest snow falls about 2 degrees to the left of the ULL track? These long-lived bowling ball ULLs often remind me of that old rule. Expand I hadn’t heard that before. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 12:59 PM, Kitzbuhel Craver said: We are? That’s been the theme mostly this winter, up & in... I get that this could be the most likely outcome, but no, we are not due. Expand In the grand scheme of the last several years, yes. For here. I’ve pulled bombs out of you know where, and have been fortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:01 PM, EastonSN+ said: CFS weeklies kicked the better look down the line. 500mb looked better at week 3 but surface temps high. Week 4 still has a trough in Alaska but managed to put a trough in the east with cold temps. 5 and 6 look great. That Alaska trough has to move at some point doesn't it Expand Too far out to worry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 12:59 PM, DotRat_Wx said: It will never snow again in Weymouth due to global warming and the new compressor station. It will warm the air by 2c Expand I talked to Bob Hedlund this summer and they are considering a name change to Warmouth. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:07 PM, South Shore Slop said: I talked to Bob Hedlund this summer and they are considering a name change to Warmouth. Expand close to Raintree 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:05 PM, CoastalWx said: In the grand scheme of the last several years, yes. For here. I’ve pulled bombs out of you know where, and have been fortunate. Expand if we are measuring this from a decadal standpoint sure, I was more speaking on the tenure of this particular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:07 PM, Snow88 said: Too far out to worry Expand Especially when the bomb d11-15 pattern evaporated right before our eyes. Better to focus on a legit threat inside d7 instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:20 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Especially when the bomb d11-15 pattern evaporated right before our eyes. Better to focus on a legit threat inside d7 instead. Expand Inside 5 days. Even 7 days the models have sucked. What a terrible year for the models . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:18 PM, Kitzbuhel Craver said: if we are measuring this from a decadal standpoint sure, I was more speaking on the tenure of this particular season. Expand That’s usually what happens. You’ll have seasons where the tenure speaks. From a snow anomaly standpoint, we should expect one of these seasons soon, if not now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Anyways it’s an interesting potential. Slow moving cutoff with marginal airmass. In fact the next two weeks have a similar look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The tenure of the season is 3mo. The tenor of the season has been meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 12:57 PM, CoastalWx said: Identity crisis? Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:07 PM, South Shore Slop said: I talked to Bob Hedlund this summer and they are considering a name change to Warmouth. Expand Mehmouth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 12:52 PM, dendrite said: What's the old rule of thumb? The heaviest snow falls about 2 degrees to the left of the ULL track? These long-lived bowling ball ULLs often remind me of that old rule. Expand Left and north. Right now that favors congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:24 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: The tenure of the season is 3mo. The tenor of the season has been meh. Expand Yes, yes... my b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:04 PM, dryslot said: Kind of have to agree with this. Expand Although lower nne might be a prime spot. On the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 There is definitely potential. Obvious OP runs like the 06z GFS show it but you can see it in the EPS probability maps. Marginal airmass means interior and elevated areas are favored. Still, we've got some issues to overcome...mainly making sure the timing is good, but also the ULL track itself...a few of these runs are looping the ULL up a bit too far west initially before it spins east...we eventually flip to snow on those but the initial surge is rain because of the westward track...it doesn't tap into the "cold" to our north and instead draws in a bunch of Atlantic air from the ESE. So in short, keep a skeptical view of this system but definitely worth tracking because the ceiling on this one is pretty high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:50 PM, mahk_webstah said: Although lower nne might be a prime spot. On the edge Expand I disagree with the Pope and Jeffafafa right now this is a helluva signal for a slow moving high 850 east inflow concentrated on CNE and NNE. Watch this one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:50 PM, mahk_webstah said: Although lower nne might be a prime spot. On the edge Expand I’m not a big fan of these types of systems up here, It could whiff, Or it could be an occluded piece of crap when and if it got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Fwiw, 06z EPS cooled a nice tick. Only goes out to 144 so can't see beyond that... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 1:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw, 06z EPS cooled a nice tick. Only goes out to 144 so can't see beyond that... Expand Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 2:03 PM, Ginx snewx said: Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before.... Expand CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Love the look of closing off 500 as the ULL tracks through the region...obviously still too early to determine where the track will be but it's a great signal. Also, it's a marginal airmass ahead of it but thankfully it isn't too crazy warm. maybe a few degrees C? PWATS approaching 1'' too in within the inflow of warm air...plenty of moisture to work with should that signal hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 keeps digging everyone will be favored, hopefully we don't overcorrect and get PC skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Still holding out hope here. We’ll see. Hopefully the gfs is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 2:03 PM, Ginx snewx said: Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before.... Expand A hubby and Pete kind of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 2:09 PM, Bostonseminole said: keeps digging everyone will be favored, hopefully we don't overcorrect and get PC skies Expand I was thinking the same thing. Congrats NJ while we have cloudy skies and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 2:03 PM, Ginx snewx said: Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before.... Expand Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 2:13 PM, moneypitmike said: A hubby and Pete kind of winter. Expand When is it not a Hubby kind of winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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