Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 It's a spring look.. transposed over a feeble solar input, but it's definitely a spring like spaghetti plot pattern there (wrt to the oper. GGEM/ Euro runs) Notice the deep cold retreated clear to almost the arctic circle and above? Pretty much rendering all points south of ~ 70 N to -6 to +5 850 mb thermal layout. You can get it done blue bomb ways but you need the mechanic/dynamic forcing and that thing out there around the 25-26th ... being in the runs for days and day as it has, is very marginal and could use some of the former steroid. Otherwise, you layout that look in the latter half of Feb and we're seeing 60 surface isotherm probably central Jersey to DSM with mid 50s to BUF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/36-osumetstud/ Anyone here from him I'm jealous... https://twitter.com/EddieSheerr/status/1218312650611986433 https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2020-01-18-newfoundland-blizzard-record-daily-snow-st-johns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Despite Scoots and Tip (which is even earlier than usual for him) cancelling winter and sucking tail pipes, the EPS has a nice snow signal . Looks like we do today all over again next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/36-osumetstud/ Anyone here from him Check out the thread for the 1/16 storm "NNE/CNE Snow Special" - awesome pics and descriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Despite Scoots and Tip (which is even earlier than usual for him) cancelling winter and sucking tail pipes, the EPS has a nice snow signal . Looks like we do today all over again next weekend yeap, just wish we had something to track sooner but whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Despite Scoots and Tip (which is even earlier than usual for him) cancelling winter and sucking tail pipes, the EPS has a nice snow signal . Looks like we do today all over again next weekend Kevin, with all due respect...please look at a model. It’s honestly an insult to those who actually care and look at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin, with all due respect...please look at a model. It’s honestly an insult to those who actually care and look at this. Will already discussed it today. We did look at it. The EPS shows the snow potential as a possibility. I’m not following ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will already discussed it today. We did look at it. The EPS shows the snow potential as a possibility. I’m not following ? Why do you always add will to your position? Own it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Dang this place is gloomy. Let’s just go full out 2011-2012 and be done with it if the gloom is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Why do you always add will to your position? Own it. Bob also said it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Dang this place is gloomy. Let’s just go full out 2011-2012 and be done with it if the gloom is warranted. Everyone's happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bob also said it Can we snow? Yes we can! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a spring look.. transposed over a feeble solar input, but it's definitely a spring like spaghetti plot pattern there (wrt to the oper. GGEM/ Euro runs) Notice the deep cold retreated clear to almost the arctic circle and above? Pretty much rendering all points south of ~ 70 N to -6 to +5 850 mb thermal layout. You can get it done blue bomb ways but you need the mechanic/dynamic forcing and that thing out there around the 25-26th ... being in the runs for days and day as it has, is very marginal and could use some of the former steroid. Otherwise, you layout that look in the latter half of Feb and we're seeing 60 surface isotherm probably central Jersey to DSM with mid 50s to BUF Hopefully thinks change for the better like last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Why do you always add will to your position? Own it. And he’s wrong. We both said it looks crummy. He’s drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And he’s wrong. We both said it looks crummy. He’s drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Will posted it this morning and showed how it has potential. Scooter then talks about +5 to + 10 and allowing no shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will posted it this morning and showed how it has potential. Scooter then talks about +5 to + 10 and allowing no shot How much TH tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Will posted it this morning and showed how it has potential. Scooter then talks about +5 to + 10 and allowing no shot But that was before 12z came in (eps). Will agreed it was awful but held out some hope with the split flow which Scooter agreed with. Both acknowledged the pig. But keep in mind eps could be overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Geez... I thought I was just mirroring what the actual GGEM, Euro...show - Hey, if they bend toward different look ... will mention that too. I really don't give a shit either way. Snow, don't snow. Again - for the record, I like interesting meteorology, first. The only time I reeeeally kinda sort of care about the snow stuff is if I'm leveling 40" in the yard, and want to break that as a private sort of nerd existential record, which happens to be more personal snow depth record while living < 500' elevation. I've nicked 40 once, in 2015, otherwise, 36" was the previous record held twice, once in 1995 ...the other in 2010. I don't really care otherwise, ... snow is too ephemeral...and the storms missed? Meh...the cinema in the models is an endless cycle and will return, admittedly at irregular intervals, but I have other interest during down times. I speak at length about the HC stuff...not because I'm ending winter or whatever douch-clown antics that's about... That is interesting Met - see how that works? And when/if a historic bomb shows up in the future, we'll go blow the doors off the posting records in there just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: But that was before 12z came in (eps). Will agreed it was awful but held out some hope with the split flow which Scooter agreed with. Both acknowledged the pig. But keep in mind eps could be overdoing it. We're taking about different things. There's a chance for the storm next weekend to pan out. But it easily could be nothing. Kevin seems focus only on that storm. Then later on scooter and I were discussing the putrid EPS look after next weekend in the 11-15 day...that looks like dogshit but if you want to put lipstick on the pig you could say we have some ways that it could produce....split flow and some ridging up near Hudson Bay could make it tolerable versus an all-out disaster like '01-02 or '11-'12. We'll see though...it could keep trending worse too. But it definitely wasn't a good look in the 11-15. That's different than saying the day 8 system has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're taking about different things. There's a chance for the storm next weekend to pan out. But it easily could be nothing. Kevin seems focus only on that storm. Then later on scooter and I were discussing the putrid EPS look after next weekend in the 11-15 day...that looks like dogshit but if you want to put lipstick on the pig you could say we have some ways that it could produce....split flow and some ridging up near Hudson Bay could make it tolerable versus an all-out disaster like '01-02 or '11-'12. We'll see though...it could keep trending worse too. But it definitely wasn't a good look in the 11-15. That's different than saying the day 8 system has a shot. And the 15+? I recall the weeklies looked good heading into Feb just a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: And the 15+? I recall the weeklies looked good heading into Feb just a few days ago. They did...next run is Monday. I suspect week 2 will look pretty crappy, but who knows. The EPS could change its tune too...they've been pretty swingy lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They did...next run is Monday. I suspect week 2 will look pretty crappy, but who knows. The EPS could change its tune too...they've been pretty swingy lately. Thanks. Plenty of winter left even if the next 15 don’t produce. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Dang this place is gloomy. Let’s just go full out 2011-2012 and be done with it if the gloom is warranted. If that means a week of 80s in mid March, sign me up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're taking about different things. There's a chance for the storm next weekend to pan out. But it easily could be nothing. Kevin seems focus only on that storm. Then later on scooter and I were discussing the putrid EPS look after next weekend in the 11-15 day...that looks like dogshit but if you want to put lipstick on the pig you could say we have some ways that it could produce....split flow and some ridging up near Hudson Bay could make it tolerable versus an all-out disaster like '01-02 or '11-'12. We'll see though...it could keep trending worse too. But it definitely wasn't a good look in the 11-15. That's different than saying the day 8 system has a shot. Right. I thought you and I were in agreement. I think we all acknowledged the HBR (Hudson Bay Ridge) but overall it was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 FWIW, Supports what some are seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 If you look at the EPS, note that next weekend's storm exits the stage due right along the 39 parallel. This is how -NAOs are formed. Ray has been on the money so far...I am riding the hot hand for a -NAO February. The nadir of the solar cycle argues for a -NAO if not at the end of this winter, then more likely for next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoth said: If that means a week of 80s in mid March, sign me up. Massive -NAO is equally possible like past few years and I strongly favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: If you look at the EPS, note that next weekend's storm exits the stage due right along the 39 parallel. This is how -NAOs are formed. Ray has been on the money so far...I am riding the hot hand for a -NAO February. The nadir of the solar cycle argues for a -NAO if not at the end of this winter, then more likely for next. 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Massive -NAO is equally possible like past few years and I strongly favor it. Worst case scenario is that it waits until March, but I think we have a good shot at February. I went into the season confident in a significant stretch of - NAO during the February through March period....so far so good on my thoughts, and hopefully that continues. One thing thatI have learned, though is to never take anything for granted....big slice of humble pie last year, so we will see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Big signal for a storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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