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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. 

I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run. 

 

Ah so this is where you ripped " the 500`s look like April  " post from . You should at least give these guys credit if you`re going to lift their material and drop it away. 

The EPS blows up in the 11- 15 because it may be looping the MJO back into p6 and that`s not where i think it`s going. Credit @Allsnow, he was the 1st I saw say this. 

So now I know where you come to lift others ideas.

 

Tisk Tisk. 

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1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

 

Ah so this is where you ripped " the 500`s look like April  " post from . You should at least give these guys credit if you`re going to lift their material and drop it away. 

The EPS blows up in the 11- 15 because it may be looping the MJO back into p6 and that`s not where i think it`s going. Credit @Allsnow, he was the 1st I saw say this. 

So now I know where you come to lift others ideas.

 

Tisk Tisk. 

I didn't rip anything. It does look like April, it looked like April the last run. 

Are you stalking me now. And the Euro showed it looping back to 6 a couple days ago too. Don't get mad at me because your forecast may not work out.

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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Here's the crazy part.....we were all psyched when a few days ago it(EPS) showed the great pattern in the 8-11.  Now a few days later it's showing us a not so good pattern all of a sudden, so it could just as easily be wrong with the bad look, as it was (potentially)wrong with the great look.  I mean these long range progs have been atrocious lately.  I have very little faith in them this season whether they show a good look or a bad one.  

You're actually 2 to 3 days late on this ...

I spoke at length to Will back whence about the about faced betrayal of the EPS and how it flipped diametrically positive after it was solidly signaling a -EPO for days.

That said, the GGEM has a -EPO ridge up there D6- 10 ...  Some of the GEF members do as well...  If nothing else, these products expose that there was/is something in the physics of the circulation heading through the mid range into the extended that supports an episodic EPO ridge.. It's just that for whatever physical detection, the EPS presently does not like it.

That said part II, ...if the EPS can taketh away, it can addeth too.   It just hasn't yet,...and perhaps it won't. In fact, it gets harder to imagine it won't the longer the present stuff persists..  Understood.  But the beauty about nature and the natural order is, it'll do what it does whether one believes it or not. 

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At least the HC has come down to seasonal norms in the models... In fact, it did so about a month ahead of last year...which waited until the ides of Feb to show that tendency...

What's funny is that the the HC seems destined to normalize, but the R-wave is refusing to cooperate. The Euro goes right ahead and develops a new SE ridge, but ...this time you can tell it is not anchored in anywhere close to the same footing as the prior expressions of that.  So, I'd rather an extended with just an R-wave structure, rather than having to deal both with the that along with the other planetary fixation.  At least this version is going to be more mutable.  

The CPC is less encouraging looking than the CDC as far as the GEFs derivatives are moving.   I dunno... to be fair... this may be a dud winter.  Could be wrapped up in a couple of cold waves and the one blockbuster storm in early December, sure.  Which... heh, that's actually better than some years.   Who knows...   Can't buy an SSW/QBO. That might help. 

As an after thought... it's never to early to start bowling season either.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So Judah Goes from a cold and snowy call for the northeast a week or so ago to now calling for mild weather. You can change your thoughts but his track record, or lack there of, takes precedent...weak.

He’s a fraud. But besides that, roll with CPC. As much as we give them crap, they’ve been right moreso than most. In this day of global warming, better off to go warm vs cold. 

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

i'm sure things will get better when I'm in Asia in February, I missed the early december storm, so basically I have not seen any snow this year.

Do a trip to Quebec City.  Tons of snow, close by, feels like you are in Europe, great food, great boutique hotels, history, restaurants...best winter city in North America.

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The arctic tries to impact the pattern next week.  You can see the factors at play for the beginning of next week on the 00z NAM through hour 57.  A large wave breaking ridge tries to setup over Alaska and the western parts of the Arctic Circle.  This tries to disrupt the polar vortex over the arctic and pushes the arctic jet southward, right now the models are too far east with the overall trough axis center east of Hudson Bay, Canada.  The overall consensus in the models is east with the center of the axis.  We could only see a westward retrogression in the pattern if we can get a transient ridge towards Greenland.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do a trip to Quebec City.  Tons of snow, close by, feels like you are in Europe, great food, great boutique hotels, history, restaurants...best winter city in North America.

Yeah, will do.. my Asia trip is work so no choice.  Going to Seoul, Korea, so maybe I get some snow there in mid february.

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do a trip to Quebec City.  Tons of snow, close by, feels like you are in Europe, great food, great boutique hotels, history, restaurants...best winter city in North America.

Great city!  We stayed in this fabulous boutique hotel when we were there 2 summers ago.  Want to go in the winter!

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