Great Snow 1717 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:16 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What happened to the 2015 like pattern...went poof? Expand The odds of 2015 repeating are very low. That was certainly an hisitoric stretch. I would have to take a look at the 2 volume set of Early American Winters to find comparable stretches of snow accumulation. Certainly 1717 qualifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:36 PM, SnoSki14 said: But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run. Expand Sir we would like to help you but all complaints need to be filed with Mr Joe Bastardi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 to many you an tv weather people change every model run . i see above normal snowfall between now into feb for i 95 and sne area with big storms too. the only weather people i like is jb and brad field and two others . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run. Expand Maybe it is. I don't see it on TT or Pivotal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:44 PM, blizzard24 said: to many you an tv weather people change every model run . i see above normal snowfall between now into feb for i 95 and sne area with big storms too. the only weather people i like is jb and brad field and two others . Expand JB calls for a cold and snowy winter prior to every winter. A 3rd grader can do the same and be right as often as JB is. And I am sure JB appreciates you having him on your "like" list..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:24 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes....trended into more of just a decent western ridge pattern with this relaxation that comes first in the D7-10 range....though we still may score a storm threat in there....remains to be seen. This is if we go on the EPS. GEFS are still showing a really good pattern but the EPS has trended pretty hard the past two runs away from the EPO/PNA combo. There's probably a lot of struggle with the strong wave in the tropic that is causing these swings. Expand The backing away from PNA doesn't suprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Holy graupel storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:47 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Maybe it is. I don't see it on TT or Pivotal yet. Expand I think those only go out to 240 hours. At any rate, there is all of the sudden a lot of volatility and my guess is the tropical PAC is giving guidance fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:17 PM, Fozz said: It seems like while the winter -NAO has been very scarce in recent years, it has usually delivered very well whenever it happened. Maybe that’s what our new climate baseline favors, so I can only imagine how a winter dominated by the -NAO would turn out. Expand I have read some research (unfortunately I don't have a link) theorizing that the best blocking occurs 1 to 2 years after the solar cycle minimum...for instance 09-10, and 10-11. If that holds true, look out for the next two winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:51 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: Holy graupel storm! Expand Plenty of lake effect snow bands today. Probably the most this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:56 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: I have read some research (unfortunately I don't have a link) theorizing that the best blocking occurs 1 to 2 years after the solar cycle minimum...for instance 09-10, and 10-11. If that holds true, look out for the next two winters. Expand I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run. Expand I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even half right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even half right Expand Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances. And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances. And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see. Expand For the winter weather enthusiasts, it's frustrating, since it's like a broken record of Winter being perpetually 10 days away. This weekends systems is OK, but then left to wait another week or more for the mere possibility of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Scooter's not going to take the time to drive to the Tobin, he's just gonna detour to the Fore River Bridge, hit the up button, and drive off while it's in up position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:13 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Scooter's not going to take the time to drive to the Tobin, he's just gonna detour to the Fore River Bridge, hit the up button, and drive off while it's in up position. Expand It’s crazy to see him buying the op Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 We do this same rigmarole every winter....."looks good in 10/15 days"....then Poof....it's gone as you get closer. Great patterns aren't foreseeable beyond like day 7 at most, sorry. They more often then not just pop up out of nowhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s crazy to see him buying the op Euro Expand It may be right. Glad we have other activities in winter to occupy us when there is nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well. Expand Well it does just not quite when we want it. Is November/March considered winter? Oh well hope everyone enjoys their March HECS this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:17 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: It may be right. Glad we have other activities in winter to occupy us when there is nothing to track. Expand It’s not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:13 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Scooter's not going to take the time to drive to the Tobin, he's just gonna detour to the Fore River Bridge, hit the up button, and drive off while it's in up position. Expand Nice new bridge. Visible from my hood. Tempting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:16 PM, Whineminster said: We do this same rigmarole every winter....."looks good in 10/15 days"....then Poof....it's gone as you get closer. Great patterns aren't foreseeable beyond like day 7 at most, sorry. They more often then not just pop up out of nowhere. Expand Lol, this is totally not true...we saw most great patterns out in advance....2013, 2015, Mar 2018, etc....they do sometimes get pushed back, and sometimes they fail to materialize altogether, but it's definitely not true that we didn't see those types of patterns until inside 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Here's the crazy part.....we were all psyched when a few days ago it(EPS) showed the great pattern in the 8-11. Now a few days later it's showing us a not so good pattern all of a sudden, so it could just as easily be wrong with the bad look, as it was (potentially)wrong with the great look. I mean these long range progs have been atrocious lately. I have very little faith in them this season whether they show a good look or a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drop the Trough Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:29 PM, WinterWolf said: Here's the crazy part.....we were all psyched when a few days ago it(EPS) showed the great pattern in the 8-11. Now a few days later it's showing us a not so good pattern all of a sudden, so it could just as easily be wrong with the bad look, as it was (potentially)wrong with the great look. I mean these long range progs have been atrocious lately. I have very little faith in them this season whether they show a good look or a bad one. Expand Yeah, but the even crazier part is when the 8-10 shows good stuff that goes bad, the bad is rarely ever wrong. Rarely do bad signals improve in the 8-10 day timeframe, usually if the 8-10 is ugly, it stays ugly. The old it can only get worse from here mantra... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I wanna see the melts if we can manage what the op euro is selling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well. Expand 79-95 was mostly all positive NAO winters. I think 83-84 and 84-85 averaged negative but barely so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 8:58 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 79-95 was mostly all positive NAO winters. I think 83-84 and 84-85 averaged negative but barely so. Expand 86-87 may have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well. Expand Maybe it begins to manifest at the end of this winter....March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 The backlash I got last week for asking "what could go wrong" ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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