moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: The 6Z GFS at 240 is eye candy oh my. The pattern looks good esp. upstream this time. I can't imagine anyone in a weather forum gives a shit about anything downstream at any time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Check out the gfs . Wow. Too bad it’s 10 days away...we know how that usually works right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Meh... not until “we see the white of the flakes” this season do we get excited. It’s been exhausting tracking these 200hr+ threats for pennies and nickels, Which uncharacteristically to this forum, we have indulged in. Yes, the pattern looks good going forward for a time. I will remain cautiously optimistic, but guarded also. Let us join together, in collective prayer, that the stars don’t align for the Mid Atlantic to get a biggie during our favored period and we are all on the sidelines. I think the board would self destruct if that were the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Check out the gfs . Wow. Swing by St Patrick’s later and kneel before Father John, for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Check out the gfs . Wow. Well if it's Euro vs GFS we already know who will win. EPS didn't look terrible to me on the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 It seems like snow chances will be there. If wake up on 2/1 with not much to show for it we may have to acknowledge that this is one of those winters but I still suspect most end up normal snow for the season when we close the books on the winter of 2019-20. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I can't imagine anyone in a weather forum gives a shit about anything downstream at any time. We don't care about the NAO state? And speaking of downstream...Newfy is gonna get an insane storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 hours ago, moneypitmike said: I can't imagine anyone in a weather forum gives a shit about anything downstream at any time. I do.....blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pattern supports legit snow/winter chances, all we can ask for. Certainly We could ask for better chances near the coast we are at peak climo next few weeks we need things to stay/ be ACTIVE best way to be hosed during peak climo is drrrryyy imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The Canadian Op is wild for next week. Massive ocean storm spinning just offshore followed by what looks like could be biggie setting up for the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Check out the gfs . Wow. I just did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I just did. Looks fantastic! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Looks fantastic! LOL but it has a change over at the end....Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: but it has a change over at the end....Lol Backlash!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 This season is going to have to sh*t or get off the pot I think in the next 10-15 days. Conflicting signs in the medium term.... could easily strike out in the next few weeks... very plausible path to not much happening. If we get into the first week of feb and the only thing we’ve had is this dog sh*t SWFE this weekend.... might be time to shut it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Regression is a bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Regression is a bitch. SE MA is due for a few seasons where they get like 25-30" and Ray to ORH is in the 80"+ range. Then again, we're all due for a ratters in a row too....interior included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: SE MA is due for a few seasons where they get like 25-30" and Ray to ORH is in the 80"+ range. Then again, we're all due for a ratters in a row too....interior included. Yep, lord knows we tried to tell them. Not saying it has to be this year, but it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 there's no such thing as "due" in weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 the wx that occurs determines the average, not the other way around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: SE MA is due for a few seasons where they get like 25-30" and Ray to ORH is in the 80"+ range. Then again, we're all due for a ratters in a row too....interior included. 20" on the year. Doing just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's no such thing as "due" in weather Not in any one given trial....but over the longer run things will regress to the long term averages. There's no way we're going to keep averaging like 75-80" of snow like since the early 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not in any one given trial....but over the longer run things will regress to the long term averages. There's no way we're going to keep averaging like 75-80" of snow like since the early 1990s. How can you be so sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How can you be so sure? You can't be 100% sure of course....but we have history to guide us. Past stretches of prolific snows that lasted a couple decades were compensated for at some point....likewise, our worst putrid stretches eventually regressed back to our long term climo. It's like flipping a coin....if you flip 10 heads in a row, you still have a 50% chance on the next flip....but you can be pretty reasonable and say "we're probably going to not keeping flipping heads every time and get plenty of tails on our next 10 flips....we'll probably also get a streak of a bunch of tails too at some point".....we just don't know exactly when. The only complication is that unlike a coin, the climate does change...both anthropogenic and natural...though if you try and take into account for that, you could argue for an even steeper regression. Though on the scale of decades, we've tended to regeress toward the long term mean even during periods of fast climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: The Canadian Op is wild for next week. Massive ocean storm spinning just offshore followed by what looks like could be biggie setting up for the following weekend. Dam, if it were only a decent model....??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Canadian look like hot garbage to me. Only caveat would be if the s/w cutoff from the flow. That things a screaming southerly gale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 You can look at recent winters vs long term and look at the departures. That corridor in SE MA that is away from the Cape and S of Boston is the most anomalous from a positive standpoint. Sure they have a higher standard deviation than many....but good lord the departures are absurd. Even in the shit winters of 15/16 and last year, I pulled near normal in 15/16 and just AN thanks to the March bomb last year. We can't keep pulling snow out of our behinds forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 You're right ... Eventually we'll average none 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Interesting it was 46 about 10 min ago now 44. it’s clouding up and we have large flakes spattered here and there...wind has picked up as well (Ansonia CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're right ... Eventually we'll average none lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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