Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 anywho ... looks to me like the models have settled into a reasonably acceptable consensus here. It's technically not a Lakes cutter - more like a partial one? I know, it's annoying to read that, considering the primary's strength and vitality, sitting over the Thumb of Michigan like that. It may be more philosophically interpretive, but the low doesn't get N of that latitude.. It smartly starts moving due east, so it sort of 'incompletely' cuts... It's really - I think the best way to define emotively - a giant piece of shit disappointment, for vested types. I mean, why mince words.. ha. What stops it shy of anyone actually eating said shit... is that it mercifully does vomit some lead snow where the front impacts WAA over that cold air in place. Which is nice...sure... Looks like 2-6" of wet snow, creted by backside polar/arctic flashing... Sort of just refitting what the last 2 weeks eroded. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems like some inconspicuously bought the rogue Miller B-GFS run over the weekend because I don't get the sense of shock here... EURO had it as well for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: But, wouldn’t you agree that WRT climo, one would argue this is about that time of winter when NYC should be in play? But not from a system that wouldn’t be in play for them. Yes per climo but no per SWFE yesterday,, today, and tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: But, wouldn’t you agree that WRT climo, one would argue this is about that time of winter when NYC should be in play? SWFE? No...its like asking why Boston isn't favored on a se wind in February. Its not about generic climo....its about climo relative to the particular synoptic evolution at hand..which is a primary vortex passing well to the west of NYC, with secondary development occurring above their latitude. That is never favorable....in July or January- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: EURO had it as well for a time When? I don’t think a d8 prof counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: SWFE? No...its like asking why Boston isn't favored on a se wind in February. Its not about generic climo....its about climo relative to the particular synoptic evolution at hand..which is a primary vortex passing well to the west of NYC, with secondary development occurring above their latitude. That is never favorable....in July or January- Well said, that makes perfect sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Damn, midweek continues to ooze big dog potential. Yep....watch that- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: When? I don’t think a d8 prof counts. Ginxy was honking on it, if memory serves me right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Well said, that makes perfect sense Climo will play soon...just not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Damn, midweek continues to ooze big dog potential. Can you expand on this, because frankly I see nothin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Can you expand on this, because frankly I see nothin' Put these on and look again........... 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems like some inconspicuously bought the rogue Miller B-GFS run over the weekend because I don't get the sense of shock here... Well it was always a possibility....but i agree it was probably not the most likely outcome. GFS almost looks a bit more sheared and compressed....I'm thinking that type of look is going to be like 3-6" across interior SNE (lowest amounts south, highest amounts north)....not much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Can you expand on this, because frankly I see nothin' Look at H5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Put these on and look again........... There is some semblance of an Archambault signal, though not the most robust that I have ever seen. No one is promising anything, but anyone with a modicum of meteorological intellect can look beyond the single deterministic panels. I know you guys are messing...just sayn'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is some semblance of an Archambault signal, though not the most robust that I have ever seen. No one is promising anything, but anyone with a modicum of meteorological intellect can look beyond the single deterministic panels. I know you guys are messing...just sayn'... Trying to instill some humor in here to offset the morbidly imbalance, I mean, It looks very good going forward, Its a pattern where some will ask where did that come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it was always a possibility....but i agree it was probably not the most likely outcome. GFS almost looks a bit more sheared and compressed....I'm thinking that type of look is going to be like 3-6" across interior SNE (lowest amounts south, highest amounts north)....not much more than that. Yes...always looked that way to me. I wasn't a fan of the wholesale Miller B appeal with that residual troughing out west. This goes both ways....which is why I am not looking at next week with "snow goggles"...just assessing the layout and diagnosing what I perceive as being the most likely outcome. Next week's ostensibly quiet appeal has a better shot of delivering a major snow event for all of sne than this coming weekend ever did IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Weekend storm is a weak sauce SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Models aren't doing a good job of showing it right now...because they never do at this stage....but there could be a pretty nasty CF on this for a time. Like 20F on one side and 34F on the other type stuff during the first 6 hours of the event. It's a pretty classic look actually given that the high is not in an ideal spot for the coast...so there's going to be a front inland somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Damn, midweek continues to ooze big dog potential. I haven't looked at the ensembles today, but maybe something comes out of no where 5-6 days out? Something like the Euro was teasing with yesterday...But the way this season has gone, besides 10 days in December I am sure we are going to end up with -10°F departures with a trace of precip until the brief warmup beginning to show up in the 10 day means... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is some semblance of an Archambault signal, though not the most robust that I have ever seen. No one is promising anything, but anyone with a modicum of meteorological intellect can look beyond the single deterministic panels. I know you guys are messing...just sayn'... It was just a question... The H5 looks great, but I wonder why it isn't showing up at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I haven't looked at the ensembles today, but maybe something comes out of no where 5-6 days out? Something like the Euro was teasing with yesterday...But the way this season has gone, besides 10 days in December I am sure we are going to end up with -10°F departures with a trace of precip until the brief warmup beginning to show up in the 10 day means... Lol now there's a brief warm up? We aren't even below normal yet for daily highs...and we're already talking a warm up lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: You know what would be helpful? If someone who is good at computer graphics could create a composite snowfall map from the last 10 SWFEs. Then when one shows up in the models, we would all know what we are getting....plus/minus X% based on anticipated storm characteristics. I'll gladly take the standard 6" from a SWFE right now. At least cover up the dead. I would hope by now most of us know what that map would look like. (Says the guy who would take those events all year long) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Models aren't doing a good job of showing it right now...because they never do at this stage....but there could be a pretty nasty CF on this for a time. Like 20F on one side and 34F on the other type stuff during the first 6 hours of the event. It's a pretty classic look actually given that the high is not in an ideal spot for the coast...so there's going to be a front inland somewhere. The GFS blows the sfc boundary up to CON...puts me on the north side of the gradient. We'll see about that. I'd presume the northerly drain holds better over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol now there's a brief warm up? We aren't even below normal yet for daily highs...and we're already talking a warm up lol? There is always light at the end of the tunnel, lol.....More of a step down to the eventual cold pattern setting up toward the end of the month, I would assume. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I haven't looked at the ensembles today, but maybe something comes out of no where 5-6 days out? Something like the Euro was teasing with yesterday...But the way this season has gone, besides 10 days in December I am sure we are going to end up with -10°F departures with a trace of precip until the brief warmup beginning to show up in the 10 day means... 12z gfe not showing much after this , Canadian maybe showing something. I guess it will magically appear soon for us not in the know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: The GFS blows the sfc boundary up to CON...puts me on the north side of the gradient. We'll see about that. I'd presume the northerly drain holds better over the interior. Guidance isn't really showing a very good/defined triple point at the sfc....I suspect that will happen as we get closer...or this will just trend more to a full blown cutter with some front end snow. My guess is the former will happen given the analogs on this type of setup....12/3/07, 1/30/87, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: You know what would be helpful? If someone who is good at computer graphics could create a composite snowfall map from the last 10 SWFEs. Then when one shows up in the models, we would all know what we are getting....plus/minus X% based on anticipated storm characteristics. I'll gladly take the standard 6" from a SWFE right now. At least cover up the dead. I know mine 3.5 brief ice then drizzle backside squall or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 12z gfe not showing much after this , Canadian maybe showing something. I guess it will magically appear soon for us not in the know lol The ones talking about the oozing big Dog potential are just going off the H5 Look that is primed...and saying that it holds some big Potential. But all the caveats apply obviously...lots of times great patterns don't live up to their potential....is this one of them? Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: The ones talking about the oozing big Dog potential are just going off the H5 Look that is primed...and saying that it holds some big Potential. But all the caveats apply obviously...lots of times great patterns don't live up to their potential....is this one of them? Only time will tell. hopefully does not turn out like Ryan Leaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wow. Pivotal added a ton of new high res euro levels/maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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