SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Thursday system is trending in the guidance. The weekend one isn't. It's weakening... Since neither are relayed on board the "instinct" to count chickens in either case has been clucking, too. Either system could still become dominant in a flat flow high velocity canvas... Both could end up nothing. Just sayn' I agree that the extended looks better ... as far as extendes can. The HC is finally looking more seasonal, and with the R-wave repositioning going on... the relaxation of both is opening a potential era where meridian flow structures can dig unimpeded more readily. We see that feed-back right away in how we end up with that wondering west Atlantic weirdness out there - but though it is silly to argue any solution for D9/10... I do think that result on this Euro run is really more a reflection of changes rather than a real system. Though it wouldn't shock if over the next 2 to 3 days, we 'fill that in' so to speak. I warned people this morning that if the Thursday system ends up stronger and bombs out too much off Canada there is a possibility this weekend system could get meat grinded and shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that. That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off. I never felt it was going to be all snow at my location either. I was hoping it would be a substantial SWFE however, with a solid front end thump. Like 4-8” before a change over, dry-slot and then bring the cold air in to lock whatever fell, preserve it until the more favorable pattern arrives. It’ll be pretty sucky if we get like 1-3” down here, flips overnight, and you wake up to a foggy, wet, Swiss Cheese “pack” and we lock that in with the cold. That would hurt the weenie a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said: 12Z Euro = a fart in church not if ur sittn in the right pew 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I warned people this morning that if the Thursday system ends up stronger and bombs out too much off Canada there is a possibility this weekend system could get meat grinded and shredded. Didn't see your brilliant insights Yeah, I was on-board with that this morning too. As for me, I'm not saying that's happening... per say - though I'm hoping that's not bargaining. Ha. But just trending. Also, this wouldn't be the first time something like this has happened. Over the years ... how many times have we seen two systems on the charts and the first ends up dominant, or vice versa. Not sure if this is precisely one of those overall circumstances where that either can, or will take place.. .but, if Thursday's digs and bombs exiting NE coast, but still too fast and we miss out..., it runs up and clocks Hazey in the lower Maritimes, then, the weekend one ends up sore-butting here because of what you say? I wonder - would that be worth the Schadenfreude to see happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 EPS looks like snow to ice for Saturday/ Sunday. What’s wrong with that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build. I recall a really good pattern setting up last year, too......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: I recall a really good pattern setting up last year, too......... It did brief but the MJO immediately went back to 3-4-5 and once we were within 7-10 days of the pattern change the 11-16 started showing signs of it ending...that could happen again here too but it won't be as fast. I would not be surprised though if by 2/5-2/10 the MJO re-emerges into 3-4-5 and this is only a 2-3 week change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS looks like snow to ice for Saturday/ Sunday. What’s wrong with that? Nothing...I'd take it but that's a view from the interior....it's kind of ugly for the coast of SNE...so if you are there, it's not going to be as appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro looks interesting for mid next week. There is a signal from Jan 20-24 that I referenced in yesterday's blog as a period to watch for a major storm, current guidance not withstanding. Wouldnt be suprised to see that reflected in future guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I recall a really good pattern setting up last year, too......... How did the one the year before last year work out? Short memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together... To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient. NAO end up more positive? Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing...I'd take it but that's a view from the interior....it's kind of ugly for the coast of SNE...so if you are there, it's not going to be as appealing. Would they rather 70-75 shorts, grass and peepers or would rather 2-4 to ice ending as snow? Maybe they’d prefer torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would they rather 70-75 shorts, grass and peepers or would rather 2-4 to ice ending as snow? Maybe they’d prefer torch If I lived on the coast of se MA, then I'd prefer last weekend's weather...but next Saturday looks fine for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I lived on the coast of se MA, then I'd prefer last weekend's weather...but next Saturday looks fine for us. Winter is back and it’ll probably end up as front end 1-3” for waters edge like Taunton and Scoots in S Wey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Winter is back and it’ll probably end up as front end 1-3” for waters edge like Taunton and Scoots in S Wey. Agree....but that isn't worth it to me, anyway...saving grace is better times are ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together... To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient—NAO end up more positive? Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this... I think a lot depends on the wave break from the mid week storm for northern New England. Most of the guidance is really blowing that up so it helps with the confluence. The main player imo is the high pressure. That’s a real strong high moving in at 1044. The mjo response in p6 is more of southeast ridge. The euro was amped at 12z which raised hgts in the East. We have seen this throughout the winter season with the euro. It will be amped then slowly back away from it. It is currently the most amped up global from the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together... To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient. NAO end up more positive? Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this... yeah ...we gotta be careful with the causality circuitry and the MJO... Since it's a tropical forcing mechanism it's got a time requirement along with some indirection... It can be muted by an unfavorable, large scale destructive hemisphere, as much as it can be harmonious and then it really feeds-back and makes the correlation shimmer with obviousness. Either scenario effects a delay/time-lag requirement for a given phase, longer or never -vs- faster do to readiness. In this case, it seems the MJO is moving into the western hemisphere, at the same time the N-.Pac is trying to reorient into a circulation medium for constructive. We'll see if it holds.. But initially, the two aren't really in phase, so I'm inclined to think the phase 6 may not transmit much signal just yet. More so later next week. Actually, Phase 6 is a warm signal - duh... but still... the other conceptual shit's valid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 You guys want the JMA's 12z solution on both ... for SNE that is.. It's cold enough and potent enough on the first (Thurs) for 1-3 or even a spot 4/5", then, the weekend gig looks like a cold commital/M-b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did the one the year before last year work out? Short memories... As Tip said from the rounders quote.....we can hardly remember a pot we won, but we recall with astounding clarity the details of our defeats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Heh, if that Thursday deal comes in more amped than this NAM solution it may just run right up the St L Seaway and no one wins... man. Looks like this run's headin' for a D.e.m. special though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would they rather 70-75 shorts, grass and peepers or would rather 2-4 to ice ending as snow? Maybe they’d prefer torch 70-75F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, if that Thursday deal comes in more amped than this NAM solution it may just run right up the St L Seaway and no one wins... man. Looks like this run's headin' for a D.e.m. special though - We have a thread for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would they rather 70-75 shorts, grass and peepers or would rather 2-4 to ice ending as snow? Maybe they’d prefer torch 2-4 is pretty lame, I prefer torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Some of you are fake weenies. Prefer torches over 2-4...wat? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some of you are fake weenies. Prefer torches over 2-4...wat? To each their own....some prefer 45F and mist to 75F and sunny. For me, I can get 75F and fair skies about 7-8 months out of the year. No thanks on taking that over 2-4 inches of snow. I'd take it over a 55F cutter though, lol. They'll be no more monster torches for the foreseeable future though....it's either 35-45F muck on Saturday/Sunday or some snow...I'll choose snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It wouldn't surprise me if we go straight from cutters to suppression and back again. That system for mid next week looks like it could be the start of that type of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/8/2020 at 8:51 PM, tombo82685 said: False and false. There is a complete atmospheric journal on slow and fast mjo and also the lag each response has https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0352.1 and here is the cpc website that shows composite lag of each https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/description.shtml @jbenedet here are two articles about lag response for each mjo phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: To each their own....some prefer 45F and mist to 75F and sunny. For me, I can get 75F and fair skies about 7-8 months out of the year. No thanks on taking that over 2-4 inches of snow. I'd take it over a 55F cutter though, lol. They'll be no more monster torches for the foreseeable future though....it's either 35-45F muck on Saturday/Sunday or some snow...I'll choose snow. What shows 35-45 rain for weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: To each their own....some prefer 45F and mist to 75F and sunny. For me, I can get 75F and fair skies about 7-8 months out of the year. No thanks on taking that over 2-4 inches of snow. I'd take it over a 55F cutter though, lol. They'll be no more monster torches for the foreseeable future though....it's either 35-45F muck on Saturday/Sunday or some snow...I'll choose snow. This weekend was nuts. While the torch felt good, it seemed like Earth was off its axis. Kind of like when TBlizz is optimistic about a crap storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What shows 35-45 rain for weekend storm? Nothing, but given the pattern and this system that would be the worst case senario (or best for warmest temperatures possible). I believe thats what he was getting at. It's impossible to get 70 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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