Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:33 PM, dryslot said: And there would not be anything wrong with that. Expand After a couple days around 70 down this way... ? hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said: After a couple days around 70 down this way... ? hope Expand Ha, And has happened before too, We made it to 57°F up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:36 PM, dryslot said: Ha, Yeah it would, And has happened before too, We made it to 57°F up here. Expand Hey man ... I've said before, I'll say it again... First it gets warm, then it get cold: boom 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Good to see winter no longer a LR hope and pray. Probability is increasing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:38 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Hey man ... I've said before, I'll say it again... First it gets warm, then it get cold: boom Expand Yesterday and today actually reminded me a bit of the day before the 3/31-4/1, 1997 storm...just a bit windier than back then. Of course.... different pattern and time of year. We did get into the 60s about a week before the January 2005 blizzard. That month was Jekyll and Hyde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That’s a hellacious thump next weekend on the gfs for everyone off the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 weekends in a run with a snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Going to be a long week, At least up here, We may have a couple snow chances before the potential weekend storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:50 PM, Snow88 said: 2 weekends in a run with a snowstorm Expand Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:25 PM, wxeyeNH said: I know this Kuchera derived clown map should not be taken (even near) to face value but it's fun to look at. 18Z GFS through Sunday AM Expand Been a while since a 3footer. Congrats dendrite! Seriously though how would we get that much qpf? Thought it was fast flow and block not in place yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 11:09 PM, mahk_webstah said: Been a while since a 3footer. Congrats dendrite! Seriously though how would we get that much qpf? Thought it was fast flow and block not in place yet Expand Sell the qpf shown. It's likely overdone. It's a good threat though even if we take 50-60% of the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 11:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Sell the qpf shown. It's likely overdone. It's a good threat though even if we take 50-60% of the qpf. Expand I’ll take 18 inches in 12 hours. That be fun, more than 24 in 24. Especially at the start of a good period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 11:00 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Wut? Expand Next weekend and the weekend after. Fun pattern ahead. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 11:09 PM, mahk_webstah said: Been a while since a 3footer. Congrats dendrite! Seriously though how would we get that much qpf? Thought it was fast flow and block not in place yet Expand That's total accumulation through 162, not from the weekend. Or maybe I'm misreading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 8:05 PM, Hazey said: That Thursday/Friday system would be a nice refresher up here too but is it believable? The euro hasn’t exactly been hitting them out of the park this winter. Expand Gefs coming around. My feeling is you get it okay but it's a bit late to get the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I thought it was pretty obvious that the op gfs has been wrong on this one the past few days...shearing out the vort to nothingness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 18z Euro was even sharper with the H5 trough for thurs then the 12z run, 18z GFS was starting to come around too, This threat has some legs it seems for CNE/NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 11:13 PM, mahk_webstah said: I’ll take 18 inches in 12 hours. That be fun, more than 24 in 24. Especially at the start of a good period. Expand I’d take 5” in 12 hours right now after the last 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 10:04 PM, forkyfork said: why do people bother with ensemble mean snowfall maps Expand What’s better than one snowfall map? An average of 51 snowfall maps . Its like asking why would anyone bother with ensemble mean QPF? That’s all that is, a QPF map with the decimal point moved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/12/2020 at 11:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Sell the qpf shown. It's likely overdone. It's a good threat though even if we take 50-60% of the qpf. Expand SE flow favored eastern dacks and NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 12:19 AM, powderfreak said: What’s better than one snowfall map? An average of 51 snowfall maps . Its like asking why would anyone bother with ensemble mean QPF? That’s all that is, a QPF map with the decimal point moved. Expand Exactly, the word snow triggers him for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I think there is the potential for the 15/16th system to come more southward with time, models are still up in the air with the pattern aloft across EPO/NAO regions, this will fluctuate for the next 24-36 hours. This will have a major impact on the next storm period. I am waiting to see if the models come into agreement on the synoptic pattern before I worry about the surface details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm keeping an eye on next weekend... should be great for skiing if the latest runs are anywhere close to the truth (though I'm sure they're overdone). I'm considering either Okemo and Stowe, or Sunapee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Boston, Bridgeport, New Haven, and Providence all set January record high temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 1:02 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast. Expand Agree 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looks like a nice thump incoming on the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATkeL Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 1:02 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast. Expand You, without a doubt, are consistently the most optimistic person in this discussions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This 72-96 hour event has legs for SNE too. Model teleconnections show the strong potential for a mini collaboration between the NAO and PNA regions heading to a -NAO/+PNA couplet in this 15/16th period. The models all show a strong dip in the NAO and a strong rise in the PNA. There is a strong possibility that the rise and drop in the teleconnections have a bigger role in the storms intensity/location/duration for areas above 40N latitude east of 75 west longitude. A lot of people believe that the transition phases could have more impact on SNE than the Mid-Atlantic and Northern New England regions. Since during strong -NAO patterns, the Mid-Atlantic gets the storms, while a weaker -NAO to neutral stage allows SNE to get in on the goods. However, with a cooperating PNA pattern in the western CONUS this could provide a better chance for snow in the upcoming week ahead. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 1:11 AM, ATkeL said: You, without a doubt, are consistently the most optimistic person in this discussions. Expand well with such a large surge north with heat we have had, it has to be released in the form of multiple storm systems moving off the East Coast. I have seen this in the past. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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