Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That Thursday/Friday system would be a nice refresher up here too but is it believable? The euro hasn’t exactly been hitting them out of the park this winter. Let's start a thread on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Going to Cancun Saturday. Flight out of BDL at 6am connecting at BWI. I have the option to switch the flight to Friday morning (Southwest airlines), but there’s only 5ish seats left on the flight. Would you do that or ride it out at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Dave5 said: Going to Cancun Saturday. Flight out of BDL at 6am connecting at BWI. I have the option to switch the flight to Friday morning (Southwest airlines), but there’s only 5ish seats left on the flight. Would you do that or ride it out at this point? Heavy snow could be falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Also its wrong It looked pretty feeble to me too in CT based on what I saw on the EPS for this weekend. But algorithm's....etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Also its wrong Yeah not sure what they’re looking at or talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 When that cold air starts to real get more organized say by the 20th or so, short lived or hanging around a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: ? 10:1, we take the under on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 512high said: When that cold air starts to real get more organized say by the 20th or so, short lived or hanging around a bit? Looks to have some staying power. The first round looks not obscenely cold but when that PNA/EPO ridge rebuilds around 1/25 or so then we could see some more arctic shots. Think of the change occurring in like two phases. The initial phase is this weekend and early next week. Definitely colder and legit snow threats but the initial EPO block folding over and joining the PNA ridge is not the longer term change...that actually is only short lived and then reloads as a more coherent wave several days later. So that few day period in between could be more like seasonable temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looked pretty feeble to me too in CT based on what I saw on the EPS for this weekend. But algorithm's....etc, etc. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Disagree No I was agreeing with you. I thought the SV maps looked a little too feeble. I didn't word it very well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No I wasn't agreeing with you. I thought the SV maps looked a little too feeble. I didn't word it very well though. Lol Ok. Looked like a good thump over a thick cold airmass. Too early to matter but that's what I interpreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Disagree He meant the algorithms looked too low to him . Better for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: He meant the algorithms looked too low to him . Better for CT Let's get that secondary which was off the NJ coast to be dominant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Let's get that secondary which was off the NJ coast to be dominant A Tippy modeled NJ low.. south of NY Bight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I deleted the politics posts. Let's keep them out of here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Gfs colder through 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 why do people bother with ensemble mean snowfall maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: why do people bother with ensemble mean snowfall maps Because it is a resource and we are obsessed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs colder through 90 hours It’s warmer after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Because it is a resource and we are obsessed. I like to use all my available tools to try to understand the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Even if we get a cold storms after the 20th we have like one month of winter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Interior New England gets blasted next weekend on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 18z 's begun the slow process of abrading next weekend's S/W mechanics by way of velocity saturation now too... christ still has the wave space but details are exposing some theft there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Regardless... that suckers over 120 kts at 500 mb in the jet core, and it's not just a flag or two - the whole exit to entrance tube is wind tunneling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Damn on that slope on the GFS. That would be one heck of a Thumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I know this Kuchera derived clown map should not be taken (even near) to face value but it's fun to look at. 18Z GFS through Sunday AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn on that slope on the GFS. That would be one heck of a Thumper. Has that 7" in an hr band somewhere look to it, doesn't it.. Sorry, with that incredible power that's probably ceiling Terran physics in having a solid 3 deg of latitude thick tube of wind over 120 kts going W- E from Pit to SE of CC like that... someone is getting strobe lightning too - kidding of course... but with that level of excessive wind solution, the frontogenics probably maxed absolutely there, with trop. folding UVM cores... and necessrily, those QPF charts may as well be douche because they're not going to pick up 0 mi vis, snow rating over 7/hr. And what's amazing...this is a weaker solution by 5 to 10 kts over 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Even if we get a cold storms after the 20th we have like one month of winter lol If that, looks like a few mild ups in there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I know this Kuchera derived clown map should not be taken (even near) to face value but it's fun to look at. 18Z GFS through Sunday AM Half those numbers yup... Still 12 to 16" happening in - probably 8 to 10 hrs ... But Like I was I saying to ... Steve I think it was, I don't think the QPF charts are altogether useful... For more than the usual D6/7 lead, but because that structure/evolution synoptically supports deplorably pornographic for meso potential. Ironically ... a few of those numbers could get 2/3 to 3/4 realized by accident - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Half those numbers And there would not be anything wrong with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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