RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm...yeah, I get it. But, I don't think the model has really earned a 'suck this year' rep, either. I think there is a willingness to shine that light on the model...because it handed an iffy performance on a snow storm, and that's like the movie "Rounders," when Matt Damon's character's narrative says, "Few people remember the big pots they've won... but everyone remembers the tough beats where they lost it all" Folks in this engagement/hobby of drug use ...they don't handle losses too well-adjusted, and will tend to remember those with more shimmering alacrity than the mundane monotony of the day to day Euro, which still performs at very good levels. Just my take on things... I need more glaring busts before I'm willing to take the Euro down. It’s still the best but it doesn’t get any more glaring then Jan 15 bust for EPA to WCT. I use it as the lead dog but it’s no longer THE dog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS flatter for our pattern changing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 So much fun tracking 7 day threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That’s a crushing on gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Dryslut licking his chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Likely still a messy storm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 We crush! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 nice run on GFS for this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think Raul and I have been talking about this. Will mentioned it this morning. Interesting little batch of energy the 12z gfs was not as exciting for the 15/16 but the Canadian still showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That was indeed a tasty look on the gfs. Fun for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Gfs would be a crusher here before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Dryslut licking his chops. To bad its not 48 hrs out or so, I will say though i like the 92% EPS probs of 6+" on the weekend storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Bout 16 runs to go till showtime, I’ll gladly take some positive ticks between now and then. That run seemed to be a step in the right direction. Cooking up a Miller A after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Actually ...very close structurally/overall to being a season defining event for much of the the region, NNE to the Long Island actually... That front-side high pressure is probably and most advisably being eroded to prodigiously as it is, relative to this and prior runs ( btw on the latter), and an easy assumed correction is to force secondary's hand perhaps a critical 6 hours sooner. Anyway, I like how 156 to 164 hours ..the low ...allllllmost stalls. Really close. We see at 500 mb right there, there's an interval of proficient phasing ..if only suggested in the subtleties of the isohypsotic behavior. I mean it overall just misses a 6 hour stall with a menacing beast, 50 naut miles E of Cape Ann at 160 hours ... Double edged sword there. In one respect, you say at 164 hours, the model's too prone to permutation and future guidance won't do that... But on the other side, if it were showing at 48 hours out, it'd be a higher confidence 'near miss'... If there were ever a better scenario where 'stay tuned' were more apropos, heh.. But that's also being greeding. This thing looks like Rt 2 stays snow, and probably 20+ inches of it too.... And an easy correct - for me, given that high pressure and no way in hell that's leaving the critical thickness plumb that easily - is probably a scalp bomb with a band of icing yet beneath that down in CT.. if this were the only model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Boston has now hit 70 degrees for the second consecutive day. This is only the second time on record that Boston has seen such warmth during meteorological winter. The previous time was February 20-21, 2018. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 56.7F Cold front looks to be about 25 miles northeast of me Just getting back on the boards since signing off early last evening. What was Boston's low? I have to check. Wow. I absolutely didn't think I would loose my pack. It was a glaciated 8" pack before this torch. 2 pictures below. 230pm yesterday and just now. The strong SW wind and sun plus a high of 58 did it. Still snow in the woods all around me but it's going fast. Sun about to come outWow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 This event, and it is an "event" in my mind ... has a furtive characteristic to it, that tops everything on the list. The 'SE ridge' that is typically if not more obscured at times, present during these warm episodes in the distant past, is much more than just that in present era. Heights over a vast, disturbingly large circumvallate of the SW Atlantic basin, are over 594 dam ... IN JANUARY... At least in my tenure on this planet.. I have never seen that before. What I believe is happening, which lends to this being something notable enough .. is that the R-wave patterning has happened to come into a superposition with the HC expansion, in a constructive wave interference. The two together are creating a sort of synergistic feed-back and we're seeing a 'rogue-ridge' signal in the atmosphere. Perhaps indirectly/transitively related to that ... in all guidance, we spend the next two days, post this pallid fropa this morning, with a polar high rolling over top (N!) through eastern Ontario, yet the 850 mb 0C isotherm struggles S of a BUF-BOS latitude? In January no less... As an aside, I've opined over in the climate forum upon multiple compositions that are too long for the attention span modern world social media ... how Americans have been living a kind of charmed existence during this entrance era of CC's pernicious effect. In effect, we are affectedly being protected from sensible awareness of it. Oh some of us do sense and observe changes, but those examples far more subtle than they are gross enough displays, such as burning continents down-under. Which I'm sure the counter-arguing shimmeral "moral" base is currently composing a well-formed paper that it's only happened because of man's prevention of "normalcy" - which in partial truth, allow them to get away with it... We would be rarer to find summer heights over such a vast area of the SW Atlantic Basin persisting so long between 594 to 600 dm; typically getting a circumvallate of say 590 ( which seems like a minor difference to lay-folk but is an important physical sensitivity ) would roast the population mecca, presaging or in tandem, an 88 to 96 heat wave from the els of the eastern cordillera to the I-95 corridor. If this super-position event taking place now, happens May 10 through August 10? ( which I contend merely hasn't ... yet) we're talking 103 to 110 at Logan And don't think that can't happen ( not you per se - the 'royal yous'). There would probably be a historic heat wave that presses the physical ceiling and just parks the dailies at 107, with lows of 90 ...because despite all ..the sun is a constant but etc...etc.. cross that bridge. The low temperatures remaining elevated is where the ballast of GW is being noted, btw/is the point. We are doing a kind of 'perfect storm' R-wave timing over the tapestry of bloated HC, a constructive wave interference event. We are seeing it happen at a time of year that only instills a sense of frolic elation for 90% of society that steps out with a cup of coffee and goes, Ahh. While of course sending the remainder dystopian winter storm zealots like us to distraction ... Neither experience lends very well to "consequence" experience of GW, not in a species that is intrinsically blithe to the point of paralysis at reacting to any crisis that isn't directly appealing to the senses as hardship. I feel pretty highly confident, snark and resentment overtones aside... ( which I'm aware I come of that way about this particular subject matter - but that's for dark humor/entertainment and sarcasm...blah blah ), that this a warming event that happens in 1900, 1950, 1990, and 2020, but is one that is getting a CC feed-back, and given enough sophistication in re-analysis, would prove that way. I know this is a historic Bermuda ridge for this time of year...and probably is in the top 10 percentile in summer, just existentialism, and probably a-priori. But, nuances in the flow and noise keep us from 70 ... okay... that's part of the furtive way in which we're being spared the burden too often. Just curious but do you use talk to text? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: GFS flatter for our pattern changing system. CMC went the opposite and gives very little. We wait for the EURO tiebreaker 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was actually beginning to entertain the notion that the EPO part of this may be less impressive or discernibly changing ( but will some of course...) compared to moving the PNA from -5 SD to +1 .. 6 pt change in a domain that is truly awesome in size-scale and dimension must simply by proxy of mass alone, conjure opinions for a broad systemic change in the circulation structure over at least this side of the Hemisphere. And it's probable that big of a change has some roots in the Indian Ocean/Asian input, too... considering we are seeing an MJO wave that is robustly modeled, in all agencies, to press through Ph 6 and lurch into Phase 7/8... probably as the curve unfurls in time, we'll see that wrap around toward 1 ( my hunch ) ... These are indicators that tropical forcing is syncing up with the mid latitudes in a constructive way. So, a better/robuster -EPO signal may yet also materialize - I'd bide time on that. But the PNA is definitely correlated with the MJO as it being modeled heading into week two. What is fascinating to me, is trying to figure out which leads which/chicken and egg. Because it almost looks like pure dice roll-timing thing ... They seem to be happening in tandem. Also, I'd be on the look-out for emerging -AO signals if that has not already begun. If the mid latitudes/MJO sync up...that increases cyclone genesis along mid latitude conveyors, and that enhances the Ferrel trade flow/easterly trajectories below the rim of the polar vortex.... which by physics weakens the vortex and blocking nodes tend to result. Same page with respect to pending changes in the polar domain that are not captured among guidance just yet...all of the focus in on the Pacific, but it will end up both over the pole and Atlantic imo. I'm going to blog later today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Boston has now hit 70 degrees for the second consecutive day. This is only the second time on record that Boston has seen such warmth during meteorological winter. The previous time was February 20-21, 2018. Thanks Don. One * in that the thermometer has been reading about 2F high for 18+ months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: We harken back to Jan threads of yore. Some cant see the forest thru the trees. Yep. We see it...but after last season..I get the trepidation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Thanks Don. One * in that the thermometer has been reading about 2F high for 18+ months. Yep. Fake news readings. Still a really impressive airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I got 70, 69 and 71 at the home-stations within a mile of mi casa and ... heh, hate to say, it is definitely either 70, 69 or 71 out there... Boston/Logan may have an issue with it's instrumentation - but I keep seeing it match enough sites that despite not being merely designated official ( in the latter sense ) that's a lot of weight there. Yeah, insane event - ... pretty high confident it doesn't register in folks' minds as a phenomenon, but it qualifies... My wind has died off... The sky is open and blue with picturesque cu... 70.5 on January 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. Fake news readings. Still a really impressive airmass. I want to see the GFS LR temp anomaly come true, -30s anomaly. That would be a -70 anomaly flip in one month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It's almost comically absurd looking at these daily dep columns on NWS' climo site. +29 at HFD yesterday... +31 at ORH ... like, really? Today would probably go down as extra special double top secret strange ... if it weren't for the fact that we're mostly going to put up a bootleg, midnight low 11:58 pm style... I think anyway... geez, I was assuming but now that I think about it, I haven't even looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 At 12:54 pm, Boston reported a temperature of 72 degrees. That tied the January record set on January 26, 1950. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 12:54 pm, Boston reported a temperature of 72 degrees. That tied the January record set on January 26, 1950. 71 at mi casa up here along rt 2 I'm only mentioning because there's contention among Mets and privy users over the veracity of Logan's readings... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 12:54 pm, Boston reported a temperature of 72 degrees. That tied the January record set on January 26, 1950. Ugh. They really gotta fix their siting issue and figure it out. First, it causes the warmest July on record last year when nobody else in SNE was even close...now it ties a monthly high (maybe surpasses it next hour). On any given day, 2-3F doesn't matter that much but today it will...difference between monthly record and not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ha ha... man... 'Magine goin' 31 above climo on July 10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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