ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:08 PM, Bostonseminole said: Will, how does the 12 EPS look today? not much change? Took a quick look and it looks pretty good from about 18th on till the end of the run but I suck at interpreting the ridges and epo,ao,nao,cao, gomo, ccco Expand Yes....excellent run again. Hard to hate much about the pattern....and as ginxy said, the EPS do like the 1/18 threat. It's still in the early part of the pattern change, so there's more risk for westward solutions on that one than future threats beyond that IMHO.....but we have a good antecedent airmass for that one and the western ridge isjust in the process of building, so there's some good things going on. I'd just be cautious getting too invested in 1/18 just yet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:16 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah but Day 8 and all. I’m optimistic just cautious. Nice to see some run to run consistency on a storm threat. New regime incoming for a few weeks hopefully. Expand Of course, d8 caveats apply. We have to love where we are headed though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 7:59 PM, Ginx snewx said: EPS looks very similar to OP . Nice cold Miller B with a great amount of QPF Expand Popping in from the mid-atlantic forum. How does the MLK weekend storm look for northern Vermont (Montpelier area)? Will be visiting some friends up that way for the weekend and am REALLY hoping to catch a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:26 PM, DCTeacherman said: Popping in from the mid-atlantic forum. How does the MLK weekend storm look for northern Vermont (Montpelier area)? Will be visiting some friends up that way for the weekend and am REALLY hoping to catch a good storm. Expand It's early but that area looks favorable for the 1/18-19 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's early but that area looks favorable for the 1/18-19 threat. Expand I love in the tropical snow desert urban heat island hell that is metro Washington DC so any snow will make me happy, but it would be really cool if my visit timed up with a significant storm. Thanks for the response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:21 PM, Ginx snewx said: 18th and the 22nd looks good and then way out there again on the 26th Expand Thanks Ginx. I’ll be in N. Maine sledding on the18th, so will miss whatever happens here in SNE with that one...but it’s good to see that THE 18th is just the beginning.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes....excellent run again. Hard to hate much about the pattern....and as ginxy said, the EPS do like the 1/18 threat. It's still in the early part of the pattern change, so there's more risk for westward solutions on that one than future threats beyond that IMHO.....but we have a good antecedent airmass for that one and the western ridge isjust in the process of building, so there's some good things going on. I'd just be cautious getting too invested in 1/18 just yet though. Expand Absolutely no investment just like the look. 22nd 23rd look today is excellent. Way out there is a very strong signal for a juicy stj Miller A storm that might interest the MA forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:35 PM, WinterWolf said: Thanks Ginx. I’ll be in N. Maine sledding on the18th, so will miss whatever happens here in SNE with that one...but it’s good to see that THE 18th is just the beginning.... Expand On the table not ready to eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:35 PM, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely no investment just like the look. 22nd 23rd look today is excellent. Way out there is a very strong signal for a juicy stj Miller A storm that might interest the MA forum. Expand The folded-over EPO block links up with the building PNA ridge around 1/20-1/21 and the flow becomes extremely meridional, so I could definitely see there being support for a larger scale threat a day later or so. (1/22ish) Obviously caveats apply as the look could change, but the reason the pattern has been pretty excited is because of how meridional it looks. That will keep the threats rolling in with a ton of cold over us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 8:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: The folded-over EPO block links up with the building PNA ridge around 1/20-1/21 and the flow becomes extremely meridional, so I could definitely see there being support for a larger scale threat a day later or so. (1/22ish) Obviously caveats apply as the look could change, but the reason the pattern has been pretty excited is because of how meridional it looks. That will keep the threats rolling in with a ton of cold over us. Expand Yep. The ridge off the west coast should keep things active and the cold/dry debbies at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Heavy investment in next weekend and beyond. When I get back from Nashville Thursday night. Winter returns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Heavy investment in next weekend and beyond. When I get back from Nashville Thursday night. Winter returns Expand Line dancing at Kid rock's bar? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Heavy investment in next weekend and beyond. When I get back from Nashville Thursday night. Winter returns Expand Snow for days and days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Man that look on guidance is pretty sweet. Not many complaints there. Just need to get through Thursday or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:33 PM, WxUSAF said: Strat shenanigans later? Expand Harvested from MA forum. Would be nice to get late Jan and Feb 2015 and March 2018 combined no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:43 PM, EastonSN+ said: Harvested from MA forum. Would be nice to get late Jan and Feb 2015 and March 2018 combined no? Expand Lol..no need to dilute 2015 one bit! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:49 PM, weathafella said: Lol..no need to dilute 2015 one bit!Slurpee waves in Nantucket Sound?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:49 PM, weathafella said: Lol..no need to dilute 2015 one bit! Expand Yeah but imagine throwing Mar '18 on top of 2015.....lol. Thats the stuff of TyphoonTip's fictional weather stories he has authored rooted in some form of reality at some point in time....he has always said that imagine 2015 happening except that the snow is higher water content.....well in this scenario you throw 2 or 3 feet of high water content snow on top of all that powder....similar kind of obscenity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 9:49 PM, weathafella said: Lol..no need to dilute 2015 one bit! Expand Remember when JFK was inaugurated, yea multiple analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 5:11 PM, klw said: Biggest downside to BTV from a snow perspective is that it is awful at snow retention- if that matters to you. Expand True. But there tends to be snow otg most of the winter with all the systems coming through that gives us sprinkles and 45 here. Also, you don’t have to go that far from Burlington to get a lot more snow and way better retention. I can buy the place next to powderfreak.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hi, I got a response from pivotal weather on the ecmwf vertical levels on the soundings. The vertical levels are: 1000, 950, 925, 900, 850, 800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100. Pivotal Weather Team support@pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com | PO Box 721572 • Norman, OK 73070 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:18 PM, OSUmetstud said: Hi, I got a response from pivotal weather on the ecmwf vertical levels on the soundings. The vertical levels are: 1000, 950, 925, 900, 850, 800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100. Pivotal Weather Team support@pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com | PO Box 721572 • Norman, OK 73070 Expand Pretty much AWT. The only thing missing there that I'd like is H75. That's really sweet for free though. I hope their plan works and the donations keep rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:18 PM, OSUmetstud said: Hi, I got a response from pivotal weather on the ecmwf vertical levels on the soundings. The vertical levels are: 1000, 950, 925, 900, 850, 800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100. Pivotal Weather Team support@pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com | PO Box 721572 • Norman, OK 73070 Expand Nice. That's good they have 4 levels between 1000 and 900. I kind of wish they had like 825 and 875 but beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:41 PM, dendrite said: Pretty much AWT. The only thing missing there that I'd like is H75. That's really sweet for free though. I hope their plan works and the donations keep rolling in. Expand Yeah 750 too I should've said above. That is a frequent level for pellet layers in the really tilted systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 What a bunch of weenies, Those levels for free are better then some of the paid sites, Maybe ask if they can add the ones that are missing? I know some of the paid sites will do it if you ask. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah 750 too I should've said above. That is a frequent level for pellet layers in the really tilted systems. Expand I hear ya on 825 and 875 too. I just find I'm usually stressing over that 700-800 layer up here more than the 800-900 layer in winter events. I'm sure some further S and E may feel differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:46 PM, dryslot said: What a bunch of weenies, Those levels for free are better then some of the paid sites, Maybe ask if they can add the ones that are missing? I know some of the paid sites will do it if you ask. Expand My hunch is that's all they have. Otherwise I'm sure we'd see more levels in the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:52 PM, dendrite said: My hunch is that's all they have. Otherwise I'm sure we'd see more levels in the soundings. Expand Well that's real good for being free that they even have that many levels if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:54 PM, dryslot said: Well that's real good for being free that they even have that many levels if that's the case. Expand Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:49 PM, dendrite said: I hear ya on 825 and 875 too. I just find I'm usually stressing over that 700-800 layer up here more than the 800-900 layer in winter events. I'm sure some further S and E may feel differently. Expand 875 is actually not that big a deal the more I think about it. Pretty rare to have an elevated warm layer that low when 850 is below 0C though it does happen occasionally. 825 def matters though...I'd love 825 and 750. But at least with 850-800-700 we could probably interpolate from the soundings whether there's a potential issue even if we can't quite see it. (I.E the sounding is getting warmer between 850 and 800 and then 700 isn't THAT much colder than 800)....so much better than the old 850-700 gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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