January 2020 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Is true. We never know exactly how it shakes out. However, it’s much more favorable than what we’ve had. That’s about all we can really say. I certainly think we’ll have opportunities heading later this month into Feb. Even next week could offer a wintry threat in the interior. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Far N. Maine looking ok though...mostly Snow from P.I. North it looks.

06 GFS and the Euro was starting the tic south with the boundary, This could be 12"+ up there this weekend, Further south below Milinocket looks to get quite icy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

What's going on in the mets minds re the last third of the month and Feb?

Not a met, but I still like latter January and especially February. I think it becomes progressively lesa hostile for blocking from mid month into March. In the Pac side, I'm more confident of improvements in the EPO region, than I am with respect to the PNA.

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks bad.

break out the genneys

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

06 GFS and the Euro was starting the tic south with the boundary, The could be 12"+ up there this weekend, Further south below Milinocket looks to get quite icy.

Yup...was thinking the same thing.  Good news for them up there.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Far N. Maine looking ok though...mostly Snow from P.I. North it looks.

I knew the ice was a sell for SNE.. saw that coming lol

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

break out the genneys

I have one, Won't be without after what happened in 1991.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

I have one, Won't be without after what happened in 1990.

You mean 98 right??

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yup...was thinking the same thing.  Good news for them up there.  

Looks good the next week after too, There going to make up some ground now, Need it back to the NW here to in the Moosehead Lake Region as well.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You mean 98 right??

That too, But Hurricane Bob i think it was 1991 knocked my power out 7 days and i had a flood in the basement with close to 4' of water before i could find a genny to get my sump pumps working.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

That too, But Hurricane Bob knocked my power out 7 days and i had a flood in the basement with close to 4' of water before i could find a genny to get my sump pumps working.

Oh ok...but Bob was 91 I believe...??

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Oh ok...but Bob was 91 I believe...??

Yes i made the edit.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a met, but I still like latter January and especially February. I think it becomes progressively lesa hostile for blocking from mid month into March. In the Pac side, I'm more confident of improvements in the EPO region, than I am with respect to the PNA.

“Like” for all of SNE or Hampton Beach?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

“Like” for all of SNE or Hampton Beach?

lol what he's alluding to will benefit all of SNE, not just Hampton Beach.  

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

lol what he's alluding to will benefit all of SNE, not just Hampton Beach.  

Uhhh, Wolfie... Ray doesn’t care about your snowfall or mine usually. You should know this.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Uhhh, Wolfie... Ray doesn’t care about your snowfall or mine usually. You should know this.

Cares about Weymouth snowfall though.

[HimoorWx]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wolfie!   AAAAAAAAWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

[Lava Rock]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks good the next week after too, There going to make up some ground now, Need it back to the NW here to in the Moosehead Lake Region as well.

Trailers north

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Trailers north

I think we will turn the corner here too.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I browse these threads sometimes and have seen Tip mention the 588 over Miami thing or something like that as having a deleterious effect on shortwaves.  Tip, would it make something as amped up as this rolling through the Plains-Lakes less likely to verify or am I misunderstanding?

Yo.. 

As a primer, the idea of 588 gp heights over Miami is more for a latter mid and extended range correcting effort. Sometimes the models attempt deeper cyclogenesis from the midriff of the Nation/conus latitudes ...through and off the Eastern Seaboard, with/while they sustain height compression already in place and throughout said deepening.  A clue as to whether compression is there to an extent where inhibition, and probably correction in future guidance, is partially identifiable a few ways: 

prior to the S/W passing east of ~110 W,  are there a lot of isohypses aligned parallel between Tennessee and Miami;

are the winds in that vicinity moving faster than ~ 35kts;

are the heights over Miami ( as a rough rule) exceeding 582 dm. 

It's really sort of a combination of these observations in how to use them .. have to kind of 'juggle'/interpretive.  Sometimes one can just tell that S/W can "dig" and amplified, doing so even when heights are high-ish down south, because (say) the previous two panels might have shown heights receding ... the velocities relaxing... etc. Some times these pan-systemic changes are taking place "just in time" ... It's not just whether there is a ridge in the west, either ( btw ), which I have heard/read as though others appear more reliant?  Heights can ridge in the west and be in the coveted +PNAP flow construct, yet .. the compression in the SE is unrelenting... There may be a storm in that paradigm, but it's not likely to attain as deep a system as it could otherwise ... the reason for that is mathematical and physical, and cannot be argued.  When the flow is excessively fast, the S/W wind max, itself, is not delta(v) against the tapestry, and without that differential, there are less "responsive"/mass conservation restoring jets...  --> weaker storms.  Can't put it any simpler than that. But also, they'll tend to move fast. 

Folks need to understand...this is about modulation along curves and spectrum, too, like anything in nature..  - no one is saying no bombs.  Whether x-y-z region gets a-b-c event is all about compensating anomalies, and if they are sufficient ... events will happen.  It's just that when the flow is fast everywhere, S/W mechanical power is being offset. It's a matter of what tax. 

So taking all that in ... In the situation you have here, that is nearer in time for one. Usually nearer terms lend credence as to whether a given scenario's anomalous factors are believable or not. In this case, adding to that credence, the ridging in the S-SE is believable; I would think first and foremost that is true, for having existential footing in multi-faceted reasons - ha. I mean both seasonal and extra-seasonal/scale in nature, that sucker's for real.  I feel even if the EPO does finally shed numbers, we may end up with a compression form of the +PNAP..so... you know...have to deal.   But in your loop, the trough/R-wave positioning is such that it wants to trough in the west, anyway, so the S/W ( which is probably the short answer to your question ) isn't really getting "squeezed" through the east by the models. It's sort of riding up along a path of least resistance so probably should remain a fast moving system as is modeled, reasonably intact.   

 

[Whineminster]

NNE stealing our ice now too, stealing our snow wasn't enough apparently. 

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Uhhh, Wolfie... Ray doesn’t care about your snowfall or mine usually. You should know this.

lol You are correct, but what he was saying has implications for the whole area of New England in general region wide.  Ofcourse we're all at the mercy of nuances that can't be predicted with any accuracy this far out, but as the old saying goes...we'll have our chances if it plays out the way he thinks. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile, Saturday night and Sunday could be nasty in NNE and a chunk of Maine. Tamarack grid collapser?

Hoping for IP.  That saved my current woodlot in 1998 - it took some damage but probably less on the 62 forested acres here than on the 0.8 acre house lot in Gardiner where we were living when that storm hit.  Zero IP there.  (And not just worse on a per-acre basis, but less total tree damage.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

“Like” for all of SNE or Hampton Beach?

All...

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Looks bad.

Or good 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12z runs are going to come in rain to Canada this weekend it seems.  

[Whineminster]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

12z runs are going to come in rain to Canada this weekend it seems.  

Rain to the chic chocs

[dryslot]

I don't see rain to Canada, From 50's to 20's in 5 hrs Sunday am here on the 12z GFS.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Looked to me the 12z GFS trended to a more frozen solution for NNE 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure if the following is applicable buuut,   January thaws were almost dependable in my youth. 

There is a rhyme and reason to why there's an impression in the the general lore of Humanity for the occurrence.  It may not take place every year, but, patterns in general tend not to last indefinitely.  That duh, is A.   B, when they change, they tend to either reset, in which the same paradigm re-asserts its self, or, changes to something new.  Either circumstance is technically a pattern change - just because the original character recommences, doesn't alter the fact. In the former circumstance, if the reset is a cold to cold change, those will tend to be warm(er) during the intervening period of time; which can be variable in length depending upon what is going on in the entire hemisphere at that time. The experience can be profoundly offsetting - particularly this becomes important when acclimation factor get involved. 

Going from highs always in the 30s and lows around 20 (which it hasn't been ..I'm just making examples here ), then, surging to 54/44 for four or five days ..even if misty, will seem like quite the thaw. May even turn the Earth to mud and remove snow pack.   My fondest winter of memory was 1995-1996 for loading cold and snow ..more so it was the latter comparative to climate. Even that one had a mammoth mid season thaw that came on around the ends of January.  

But again...this isn't every year. Some years the reset goes from cold to warm and your skunted... Or, you don't get a "thaw" per se, because it was never cold to begin with...but the new paradigm finally does freeze and snow.  ...  I would say, on balance, most years ... just spit-ballin' from memory, if it gets cold and snowy early ( like pre xmass) ... you're more likely to suffer a thaw, simply by fact that usually you can't get more than 45 days before a pattern has to refit or move onto something new, and those seams time sort of mid January ..  

I'm sure someone with stats and patience can drill it down.  But, we had a nice -EPO cold burst on our side of the hemisphere in early December... and that waned...to sort of a  non-committal pattern really... and now, we move warm.  As others have noted, it doesn't appear protracted?  But it's kind of a battle between the American and foreign ensemble tools in that regard, because as of last night, the American side still wants to Aprilize the country.