RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: next week is transient.. we might get lucky or not.. week of the 20th we are in a better patterns as most have mention.. hopefully it lasts into february Some seasonal guys are saying only a 2-3 week stretch of true winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some seasonal guys are saying only a 2-3 week stretch of true winter left. I disregard that talk mostly....since many of them are HDD weenies or they focus on the east as a whole and kind of ignore New England or erroneously lump us in with the Mid-atlantic where the snow climo becomes like Miami after 2/20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some seasonal guys are saying only a 2-3 week stretch of true winter left. Maybe for the S Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some seasonal guys are saying only a 2-3 week stretch of true winter left. Ya that's all BS most of the time in my opinion. That's a pretty pathetic situation especially for SNE since its only Jan 7th currently. And Not too many seasonal guys did all to well last year either with their calls. And that goes the same way when some of these people are saying a very good pattern/stretch is in the offing as well. Take with a grain of salt on both sides of the coin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: On the plus side, EPS continues to look excellent in the 11-15...and it's moving forward too. Not getting stuck at like 312-336 hours. I too browse here from time to time....and I see reference to EPS day 11-15. Is this available for free online anywhere? Tidbits only goes to day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 There are meteorologists stating that there is a sign of a winter cancel signal for both Europe and much of the East until you get into New Hampshire all because of either a plot showing the cold anomalies reaching later in the outlook literally to the ground or a 30 day Euro model map of overall temperatures depicting in many areas of 2 degrees above normal. I do not know what to think except rationally it is best for us to remain calm and take the data for what it is, accept it for what it is and push for understanding on just how we do not know how climate change is affecting the planet whether you believe in the coming of an Ice Age, or just the Grand Solar Minimum, or Global Warming. I have heard rumors of an interaction between the sun and an unknown binary dead star for quite some time, but that is my conjecture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I too browse here from time to time....and I see reference to EPS day 11-15. Is this available for free online anywhere? Tidbits only goes to day 10. I'm not sure if anyone has it past D10 for free....not that I think it's a huge loss though because even the EPS isn't hugel skilled in the 11-15. But it's usually more right than the GEFS. FWIW, the GGEM ensembles agree with the EPS. GEFS has been showing much less ridging out west than the EPS. Here's a few plots from D12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Please, for the sake of our sanity...be right eps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure if anyone has it past D10 for free....not that I think it's a huge loss though because even the EPS isn't hugel skilled in the 11-15. But it's usually more right than the GEFS. FWIW, the GGEM ensembles agree with the EPS. GEFS has been showing much less ridging out west than the EPS. Here's a few plots from D12-15 Looks like suppression won't be the problem. But I feel like the amplitude will be more muted than this, and fast flow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure if anyone has it past D10 for free....not that I think it's a huge loss though because even the EPS isn't hugel skilled in the 11-15. But it's usually more right than the GEFS. FWIW, the GGEM ensembles agree with the EPS. GEFS has been showing much less ridging out west than the EPS. Here's a few plots from D12-15 Thanks! Yes I am rooting for a change. We had a record snowstorm on Nov 11 which stayed on the ground nearly 2 weeks, since then its been flakes, dustings, and a few small snows that melt in a day or two. Driving me crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya that's all BS most of the time in my opinion. That's a pretty pathetic situation especially for SNE since its only Jan 7th currently. And Not too many seasonal guys did all to well last year either with their calls. And that goes the same way when some of these people are saying a very good pattern/stretch is in the offing as well. Take with a grain of salt on both sides of the coin. Midpoint for HDDs at my place is Jan. 21, though for heating purposes it's probably a week earlier due to increasing 2nd-half help from the sun. Midpoint for snowfall is currently Feb. 1. Though I'm in a colder climate than that of most New England sub-forum posters, the relationships elsewhere in the region should be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we have two marginal shots next week....keep expectations low for now but one of them could work out....pattern does get a lot friendlier by 1/17 or so. You mean 1/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yeah that’s a better Pacific. Maybe not text book, but look at how it’s got a ridge axis along the coast of NAMR. That will help squash the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Ogmios said: There are meteorologists stating that there is a sign of a winter cancel signal for both Europe and much of the East until you get into New Hampshire all because of either a plot showing the cold anomalies reaching later in the outlook literally to the ground or a 30 day Euro model map of overall temperatures depicting in many areas of 2 degrees above normal. I do not know what to think except rationally it is best for us to remain calm and take the data for what it is, accept it for what it is and push for understanding on just how we do not know how climate change is affecting the planet whether you believe in the coming of an Ice Age, or just the Grand Solar Minimum, or Global Warming. I have heard rumors of an interaction between the sun and an unknown binary dead star for quite some time, but that is my conjecture. You'll be delighted to know that recent updates of the Euro made it both non-hydrostatic and included the governing dynamics of binary dead stars. It even incorporates a superposition of possible states, so that even if the star doesn't exist, the model will correct for that flat space-time. They're really on the ball over there. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure if anyone has it past D10 for free....not that I think it's a huge loss though because even the EPS isn't hugel skilled in the 11-15. But it's usually more right than the GEFS. FWIW, the GGEM ensembles agree with the EPS. GEFS has been showing much less ridging out west than the EPS. Here's a few plots from D12-15 weather.us has the individual members out to d15, but that’s it. It’s probably a mistake on his part too since everything else is paywalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that’s a better Pacific. Maybe not text book, but look at how it’s got a ridge axis along the coast of NAMR. That will help squash the SE ridge. Part of my rationale on how I came up with Jan 20 was the SE ridge and the pig. It wasn’t simply a WAG. When I saw modeling back in early Dec start hinting at both, I deduced we would in essence lose a month. The SE ridge in this era always tends to overamplify so if you see any semblance of one on the ensembles , it’s likely going to flex and ridge more than that smoothed out mean. And I know the pig was temporary, but even when it lifts out, it still has downstream ramifications for quite some time until you can flush the PAC zonal puke. So that’s basically how I came up with that date. Hopefully it actually works out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some seasonal guys are saying only a 2-3 week stretch of true winter left. i sure hope not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 So should we start a thread for the 1/14 system? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: i sure hope not! even in a good winter theres only a limited number of weeks to work with......lots of folks deny it but its true.....you need to get it going early to make it last and thats been tremendoulsy difficult lately......dare i say since we moved here in 2004 December has really been awful leaving only Jan and Feb to work with and usually 2-3 weeks of those two months you can toss into the garbage leavi3ng only 4-5 weeks of real winter chances.....sad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 hours ago, ice1972 said: even in a good winter theres only a limited number of weeks to work with......lots of folks deny it but its true.....you need to get it going early to make it last and thats been tremendoulsy difficult lately......dare i say since we moved here in 2004 December has really been awful leaving only Jan and Feb to work with and usually 2-3 weeks of those two months you can toss into the garbage leavi3ng only 4-5 weeks of real winter chances.....sad What a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Next week was kind of eh on the euro., Maybe a mixed mess inland, but after the 16-17th or so looks better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Next week was kind of eh on the euro., Maybe a mixed mess inland, but after the 16-17th or so looks better. Looks like 40’s and rain for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 lol what an ugly 10-day run of the Euro last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 even in a good winter theres only a limited number of weeks to work with......lots of folks deny it but its true.....you need to get it going early to make it last and thats been tremendoulsy difficult lately......dare i say since we moved here in 2004 December has really been awful leaving only Jan and Feb to work with and usually 2-3 weeks of those two months you can toss into the garbage leavi3ng only 4-5 weeks of real winter chances.....sadVery true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 lol what an ugly 10-day run of the Euro last night.Panic Room check in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like 40’s and rain for SNE Yeah wasn't cold, but some mixed precip is possible interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The fact PF posted that in the land of the picnic tables means one thing. #shutemdown 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm sure things will turn around by the end of the month, and then everyone can start focusing on the inevitable "relaxation" and increased sun angles. At least we get an extra day of February this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 days in the 60s at BOS. Wonder when or if that’s happened before in Tanuary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The fact PF posted that in the land of the picnic tables means one thing. #shutemdown Had to laugh at the GFS in the Champlain valley this weekend. It oozes the cold boundary down the valley with mega WAA aloft. Looked like 10s toward St. Albans and 850s pushing 50F. I'll have to do a weenie wiz point click sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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