January 2020 Discussion

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Things are definitely looking more favorable after about 1/15...and especially the final 10 days of the month. But even as early as 1/14-15 or so, we get some intense press of cold into central canada and that could leak out way....so we can't rule out an overrunning event just after mid-month. Could obviously be a cutter too...that's how these things go....we start to actually build a western ridge a little bit after that though which will tend to reduce the cutter risk some.

Cutters will always be on the table considering how awful the ATL is....the ATL was favorable in the first half of December which really helped us.

I don’t know if it’s CC related, we can ask Tip... Lol. But, man that WAR has been a big problem these last couple winters.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cutters will be heavy with a crap west as well. Until the RNA is fixed, razor blades remain on standby

EPS actually dumps the RNA signal around D11-12....we'll see.

 

RNA with a -NAO would have been a sweet pattern for here, but the ATL has gone to utter trash now from the favorable December setup.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@CoastalWx

This was written in November..I  know it gets confusing with so much content.

"The seemingly favorable antecedent conditions for the disruption of the PV in conjunction with both the observed north atlantic tripole over the summer, as well as the anticipated favorable Hadley cell configuration in association with the ongoing modestly warm ENSO event all favor increased blocking. However they are interpreted as being suggestive of perhaps one month during the coming period featuring one or more major and sustained blocking episodes. This will likely occur later in the season because conditions should be hostile for the development of sustained blocking during the first half of boreal winter 2019-2020 due to the considerable initial intensity of the PV, in conjunction with the delayed descent of the easterly QBO phase. This does not preclude intervals of negative NAO and bouts of wintery early season weather, owed to the elongation of the PV that is conducive to periodic and transient cold intrusions, as well expected volatility of the NAO modality. It is also important to note that while conditions appear favorable for at least minor disruptions to the PV,  its recovery from any such occurrence is expected to be both proficient and timely. This is due in part to climatology favoring only minor assaults early in the season, as well as the anticipated resiliency of a potent PV denoted by +AO conditions presently observed within the polar stratosphere. Such a recovery period after any potential assault would likely lead to a protracted mid winter thawing period as the vortex reconsolidates and possibly becomes more circular in nature.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I don’t know if it’s CC related, we can ask Tip... Lol. But, man that WAR has been a big problem these last couple winters.

Ditty’s WAR call from the summer...just 6 months late.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s the wx version of War and Peace 

It would be a 7 part mini series on Amazon Prime 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Did Ray just repost his entire winter outlook to prove a point to Ginxy? Lol

No. I posted an update narrative from latter December, along with a couple of excerpts from the original November release.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It would be a 7 part mini series on Amazon Prime 

I'm going to do a better job of prefacing the entire document with instructions to scroll to the "Anticipated Seasonal Evolution" section at the end to just get to the forecast. I feel as though the research paper portion is nice refresher for me each season on the core elements of seasonal forecasting.

[Ginx snewx]

Maybe you should separate your reanalysis of last winter from your current outlook,  maybe scale back on the repetitive explanation of indices. Good forecast so far.

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. I posted an update narrative from latter December, along with a couple of excerpts from the original November release.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe you should separate your reanalysis of last winter from your current outlook,  maybe scale back on the repetitive explanation of indices. Good forecast so far.

 

 

This is good idea, but I felt as though lessons from last season informed this year...as for the bolded, I do that for my own benefit each season. I forget seasonal elements during the medium range forecasting year and offseason.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wow.  

15F at RUT (10F at Middlebury) in the southern Champlain Valley and 60s in eastern Mass.  

Not sure I’ve seen a progged gradient like that.  One helluva flash freeze.

 

Know what would be really cool ... gotta go sci-fi for a minute, but, imagine if it stayed like that? 

Like two months of freezing rains with cool rain along the boundary ...and sunny where it was 60.  It'd be like a glacial wall right next to it - heh

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Things are definitely looking more favorable after about 1/15...and especially the final 10 days of the month. But even as early as 1/14-15 or so, we get some intense press of cold into central canada and that could leak out way....so we can't rule out an overrunning event just after mid-month. Could obviously be a cutter too...that's how these things go....we start to actually build a western ridge a little bit after that though which will tend to reduce the cutter risk some.

Cutters will always be on the table considering how awful the ATL is....the ATL was favorable in the first half of December which really helped us.

It's hard ... folks tend to "Stockholm Syndrome" effect when reality delivers them unrelentingly.  But "weather" we are talking a political hostage scenario in the early 1970s, or matters of the vagarious wind, a similar phenomenon takes place.  People begin to relate to that paradigm and concede.  They start to think ..or more precisely, it gets harder and harder to imagine a different scenario and acceptance emerges.  In this case, it can't get better  

Even I am guilty of this failing at times... I "try" ( failing miserably usually ) to be purely objective about matters, but when whatever goes on too humanely long I start finding reasons to justify it as an immovable new paradigm.  Like, oh...I see why we are eternally f~

Kidding to some degree...

I'm just not sure that speed stuff I've been harping really qualifies?  Seeing as there are reams of papers by vetted sourcing that go to empirical lengths describing what folks either don't understand in this social media, or hate...  digression

Seriously though, in 2015 we were not really looking at a very favorable teleconnector spread in the first week of January, for the closing of that month.  I seem to recall the EPO tanked around the 20th...and it didn't really start getting modeled to do so by the American cluster until ~ the 10th to 15th...  But holy Moses, once that sucker arrive did it lock! I mean, it was like very day I checked, and the end bar graphs were being driven down like railroad spikes on a Georgia chain gang. By the time the given day that emerged -.5 SD on D13 succeeded D7, those intervals were had been pegged down to -4 SDs or deeper. 

I'm not saying this year is redux or analog by any stretch... The concept of uncertainty is paramount, and three weeks is loooong ass time in this business to assume shit man.   

 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's hard ... folks tend to "Stockholm Syndrome" effect when reality delivers them unrelentingly.  But "weather" we are talking a political hostage scenario in the early 1970s, or matters of the vagarious wind, a similar phenomenon takes place.  People begin to relate to that paradigm and concede.  They start to think ..or more precisely, it gets harder and harder to imagine a different scenario and acceptance emerges.  In this case, it can't get better  

Even I am guilty of this failing at times... I "try" ( failing miserably usually ) to be purely objective about matters, but when whatever goes on too humanely long I start finding reasons to justify it as an immovable new paradigm.  Like, oh...I see why we are eternally f~

Kidding to some degree...

I'm just not sure that speed stuff I've been harping really qualifies?  Seeing as there are reams of papers by vetted sourcing that go to empirical lengths describing what folks either don't understand in this social media, or hate...  digression

Seriously though, in 2015 we were not really looking at a very favorable teleconnector spread in the first week of January, for the closing of that month.  I seem to recall the EPO tanked around the 20th...and it didn't really start getting modeled to do so by the American cluster until ~ the 10th to 15th...  But holy Moses, once that sucker arrive did it lock! I mean, it was like very day I checked, and the end bar graphs were being driven down like railroad spikes on a Georgia chain gang. By the time the given day that emerged -.5 SD on D13 succeed they always had a pegged -4 SDs or deeper. 

I'm not saying this year is redux or analog by any stretch... The concept of uncertainty is paramount, and three weeks is loooong ass time in this business to assume shit man.   

 

Yeah and the EPS have recently had quite a shift in the Pacific...it's not nearly as negative with the PNA....it's opposing the GEFS suite, so the change may not show up on the ESRL teleconnector site yet (assuming the EPS has the right idea and the GEFS will trend toward it....hardly a lock).

 

But if we get that combo of -EPO/+PNA (or at least neutral PNA), that would certainly be quite a flip in the CONUS pattern and likely sensible wx when it comes to storm system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe you should separate your reanalysis of last winter from your current outlook,  maybe scale back on the repetitive explanation of indices. Good forecast so far.

 

 

I think what I can do is maybe group all of the "repetitive explanation of indecies" into one blog post, and hyperlink back to it upon mention of said indecies in the outlook.

I'll try that next season because I think that will make it more readable..

Thanks for the feedback....really appreciate it.

[A Moonlit Sky]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think what I can do is maybe group all of the "repetitive explanation of indecies" into one blog post, and hyperlink back to it upon mention of said indecies in the outlook.

I'll try that next season because I think that will make it more readable..

Thanks for the feedback....really appreciate it.

One of the key parts of my work every summer is the creation of yearly retrospective documents for each of our programs, so perhaps I can offer some advice. I've read your outlooks for a few years now and they tend to run into a few issues: verbosity and repetition.

You should start with an introduction, analyze last year's outlook, begin with a general outlook, break down the months, and end with a conclusion. The repetitive index explanations can fit into an appendix of sorts.

You have a great deal of analysis to share--it just needs some tweaks in presentation.

[Lava Rock]

So is the Sat rn event before any changeover going to be 50f+ with high dews and fog eating SW winds?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So is the Sat rn event before any changeover going to be 50f+ with high dews and fog eating SW winds?

I would think a lot cooler than that for you.  

I’m looking forward to RA and upper 30’s while 10mi SE of me is in the 50’s. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So is the Sat rn event before any changeover going to be 50f+ with high dews and fog eating SW winds?

GFS doesn't even change us over. Pure torch and 60F up to SFM ahead of the cold front. Although it's more anafrontal with quite a bit of QPF behind the sfc boundary.

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS doesn't even change us over. Pure torch and 60F up to SFM ahead of the cold front. Although it's more anafrontal with quite a bit of QPF behind the sfc boundary.

I should have clarified the "changeover". Local met was talking about potential for ZR/IP.  Doesn't really matter. I was hoping/praying for a net neutral on the current snowpack, but it's clear we're heading for a substantial reduction in the meager pack.

[MaineJayhawk]

17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So is the Sat rn event before any changeover going to be 50f+ with high dews and fog eating SW winds?

Hug dat snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

One of the key parts of my work every summer is the creation of yearly retrospective documents for each of our programs, so perhaps I can offer some advice. I've read your outlooks for a few years now and they tend to run into a few issues: verbosity and repetition.

You should start with an introduction, analyze last year's outlook, begin with a general outlook, break down the months, and end with a conclusion. The repetitive index explanations can fit into an appendix of sorts.

You have a great deal of analysis to share--it just needs some tweaks in presentation.

I agree.  Will figure out some way to leave the index explanation out of the body next season.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pulling for mid 60s Sunday.  

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

It’s too bad we couldn’t have some sun this weekend and really torch it proper. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pulling for mid 60s Sunday.  

I am all for it if we don't have an appreciable pack to preserve, it isn't around the holidays and it isn't going to snow.

Lets do 70-

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pulling for mid 60s Sunday.  

That says valid 06z sunday....so isn't that 1 am Sunday morning??  

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That says valid 06z sunday....so isn't that 1 am Sunday morning??  

Rev running his 5 miles in shorts and tanktop

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and the EPS have recently had quite a shift in the Pacific...it's not nearly as negative with the PNA....it's opposing the GEFS suite, so the change may not show up on the ESRL teleconnector site yet (assuming the EPS has the right idea and the GEFS will trend toward it....hardly a lock).

 

But if we get that combo of -EPO/+PNA (or at least neutral PNA), that would certainly be quite a flip in the CONUS pattern and likely sensible wx when it comes to storm system.

That's a  4 / 5 sigma fall/ rise in a short period. Things will get very interesting 

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am all for it if we don't have an appreciable pack to preserve, it isn't around the holidays and it isn't going to snow.

Lets do 70-

Mosquitoes and ticks busting out

[Ginx snewx]

For what it's worth, Tip said we didn't know about Jan 15 early in the month. In fact some of us on Jan 3rd were touting a huge massive change around the 16th. It's all in the Jan 15 thread. Quite the read of Debbie's 

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's a  4 / 5 sigma fall/ rise in a short period. Things will get very interesting 

This looks just like the GEFS suite...Not sure what he’s talking about here, especially wrt the monster -PNA...

I’d feel pretty good about this if we could manage even a very modest -NAO. For now this still looks bad for most...

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This looks just like the GEFS suite...Not sure what he’s talking about here, especially wrt the monster -PNA...

I’d feel pretty good about this if we could manage even a very modest -NAO. For now this still looks bad for most...

Bad?,future looks pretty damn good