Torch Tiger Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Yeah, 60's to Stowe is great but unrealistic in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 0z Euro trending away from big warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 06z GFS is colder then the 0z run for the weekend system, Looks like more on the frozen side for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looks like the euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 My correctional vector continually points to 33° and rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 MJO forecasts suggests that the weeklies won’t make anyone happy today. While guidance is better on the ensemble products one has to wonder what kind of staying power any change to cold is later this month or February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: MJO forecasts suggests that the weeklies won’t make anyone happy today. While guidance is better on the ensemble products one has to wonder what kind of staying power any change to cold is later this month or February. The CFS weeklies would suggest about a 2 week period of a colder period as the last week looks like the trough is moving west again. The monthlies show a colder Feb but now has a warm March with the same look as now. Maybe my first back to back below average snowfall winter since 2006 7 2007 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looks like Jan fun isn't far off . Jan 16 to 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Snowy morning CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I smell gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: MJO forecasts suggests that the weeklies won’t make anyone happy today. While guidance is better on the ensemble products one has to wonder what kind of staying power any change to cold is later this month or February. There is a cluster heading toward a high 7, let's see if that grouping grows over the next few days. Otherwise, we take our chances with the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: I smell gradient. Huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy morning CT Coming down pretty good here now, maybe grab a quick half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Coming down pretty good here now, maybe grab a quick half inch. Yeah maybe narrow zone of 1-2”. Everything covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: I smell gradient. 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Huge How many moose farts should I be rooting for down in the Tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 hours ago, dryslot said: 06z GFS is colder then the 0z run for the weekend system, Looks like more on the frozen side for NNE. this would be great if that's how it pans out. just wish the weds storm would produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How many moose farts should I be rooting for down in the Tropics? All of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: this would be great if that's how it pans out. just wish the weds storm would produce. Those clown maps though............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How many moose farts should I be rooting for down in the Tropics? Damn what a sick ice storm signal. Absolutely classic setup if modeling stays on that. I would pay attention from Gene to Hunchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn what a sick ice storm signal. Absolutely classic setup if modeling stays on that. I would pay attention from Gene to Hunchie Wonder if we can get that to come south some, and get them snow. That cold high kind of appeared out of nowhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 hours ago, dryslot said: Next weekends cutter on the 0z GFS would be a snow and ice storm for CNE/NNE, Just like all these other ones that look to shift east over time. Looks like a sleet bomb again .. for now. Obviously, this one, too, will be modulating across future guidance, sending social-media through the usual negotiations ... haha Anyway, here we are again with a couple of cycles worth of runs, loading up the extended with ice storm threats. It's interestingly persistent as a base-line 'look' this winter so far. A tenor that's been going on for weeks really, where intuitively mix/ice specific types of winter events would seem favored. Yet, we've only really received one meaningfully impacting event for that supposed potential. At least down this way. It could just variance getting in the way and masking a dominant signal. Be that as it may, in this case, we have the Euro/GFS/and GGEM ... perhaps some cross-guidance support then to lend credence. Notwithstanding details at this range, their's consensus there: fresh, new very cold low level wedging arriving/presaging a main thrust of WAA lift, that produces a QPF bomb over top an intensifying frontal slope that is crushed S by the weight of said high pressure as it folds around the east limb of the total baroclinic space. That sounds like an ice storm frankly - we'll see. But I do wonder if the other shoe will fall at some point and we end up with a 2.5 day steady state accreter at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn what a sick ice storm signal. Absolutely classic setup if modeling stays on that. I would pay attention from Gene to Hunchie I’d be nervous if that was d2-3, but I suspect it’ll either trend back torchy or go full court press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like a sleet bomb again .. for now. Obviously, this one, too, will be modulating across future guidance, sending social-media through the usual negotiations ... haha Anyway, here we are again with a couple of cycles worth of runs, loading up the extended with ice storm threats. It's interestingly persistent as a base-line 'look' this winter so far. A tenor that's been going on for weeks really, where intuitively mix/ice specific types of winter events would seem favored. Yet, we've only really received one meaningfully impacting event for that supposed potential. At least down this way. It could just variance getting in the way and masking a dominant signal. Be that as it may, in this case, we have the Euro/GFS/and GGEM ... perhaps some cross-guidance support then to lend credence. Notwithstanding details at this range, their's consensus there: fresh, new very cold low level wedging arriving/presaging a main thrust of WAA lift, that produces a QPF bomb over top an intensifying frontal slope that is crushed S by the weight of said high pressure as it folds around the east limb of the total baroclinic space. That sounds like an ice storm frankly - we'll see. I wonder if the other shoe will fall at some point and we end up with a 2.5 day steady state accreter Could there be any Hadley Cell involvement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’d be nervous if that was d2-3, but I suspect it’ll either trend back torchy or go full court press. Maybe you'll get a legit snowstorm out of that....if that system follows the dominant trend of the past 2 weeks, it will press big time in the next 2-3 days or so before maybe trying to tickle back N a bit. But I suppose at some point that seasonal trend will break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, weathafella said: MJO forecasts suggests that the weeklies won’t make anyone happy today. While guidance is better on the ensemble products one has to wonder what kind of staying power any change to cold is later this month or February. After a prolonged crap spell which we see at least every other winter , I notice weenies for some reason want to believe / forecast that it will “snap back” to an epic period for “a couple weeks”...usually it’s not that great . Just stay active and keep the pig away and a keep a deep trough away from the west and we take our chances in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 If we changed the post length to under 500 characters, what would tippy do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Could there be any Hadley Cell involvement? You think you're being funny but ... you're likely spot on I mean, the idea is that sloped sounding events would be favored because of that ... Increasing the gradient and the sped up flow, that tends to disrupt the ability for the classic Norwegian Model Low's various structural components. Not sure what your level of education and understanding is, but .. there are classic conveyor jets that need to formulate...etc..etc.. Systems tend to be smeared as they don't have the mechanics to overcome the background gradient, and so overrunning tends to happen more often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: After a prolonged crap spell which we see at least every other winter , I notice weenies for some reason want to believe / forecast that it will “snap back” to an epic period for “a couple weeks”...usually it’s not that great . Just stay active and keep the pig away and a keep a deep trough away from the west and we take our chances in February Anecdotally sounds anecdotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’d be nervous if that was d2-3, but I suspect it’ll either trend back torchy or go full court press. Definitely a high qpf signal. What form TBD but that's a lot of cold available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah maybe narrow zone of 1-2”. Everything covered I know you know this, but many days that’s all you need for the wintry feel. Don’t hate on the snow showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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