Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 6:57 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Let the South trend commence... Expand It probably comes south and attenuates as it does... 4-6" where this one fails, that succeeds or something. I just have a tough time believing bombogen feed-backs but again, like I and apparently Will have been cautioning, ...these short-comings can be overcome, it's just a matter of whether the rarefied anomaly gets injected into the flow that is capable of doing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 I wouldn't write off the 8th, but it's close. pretty much the only game in town for a while, hopefully at least nne sees their pedestrian 6-12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 6:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes, it's going to be a nice event for a chunk of the interior....we'll see how far southeast it can snow. Wouldn't surprise me if future runs tickle it a bit further E based on the reasoning above. Expand Another few runs and it’ll be a fropa. Writing on wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 6:57 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Let the South trend commence... Expand Kuchie lovin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The only 30" I'll be seeing is inches of mercury. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 7:19 PM, dendrite said: The only 30" I'll be seeing is inches of mercury. Expand Congrats Dendrite. Heavy wet snow, clear the coops frequently after every storm before the 0 degree day comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 7:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Another few runs and it’ll be a fropa. Writing on wall Expand No, it's not going to end up as a FROPA....it will be a real storm...just wouldn't surprise me if it tames and goes a bit east....which actually might help SNE to be honest. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 6:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the mechanics of this event are much more robust....but everything has trended more progressive/flatter from about D4-6 in this pattern. Starting with that 12/28 event. That was a 55F cutter to powderfreak 4 days out....same deal with this 1/4-5 event. Barring some other offsetting trend in the synoptics, I'll bet this one ends up more progressive too....it won't be enough to eliminate the storm though because it has a pretty nice looking shortwave...it will still be a good storm for a pretty good area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it tames a bit on total QPF and ends up more east than what it shows right now. That said, there could still be something to offset the progressive trend...maybe the upstream ridge becomes more amped out near the rockies and helps drive this deeper. I just wouldn't bet that way right now since it hasn't been happening in this pattern. Expand It is very sound logic in this progressive flow. The non-sound logic that gets to the same ending is that lows trying to track over the coastal plain from HFD to PWM usually tick east anyway towards the water and baroclinic zone along the water. I’m always skeptical of that track as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 7:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: before the 0 degree day comes. Expand I'd love a mean of 65F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 6:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the mechanics of this event are much more robust....but everything has trended more progressive/flatter from about D4-6 in this pattern. Starting with that 12/28 event. That was a 55F cutter to powderfreak 4 days out....same deal with this 1/4-5 event. Barring some other offsetting trend in the synoptics, I'll bet this one ends up more progressive too....it won't be enough to eliminate the storm though because it has a pretty nice looking shortwave...it will still be a good storm for a pretty good area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it tames a bit on total QPF and ends up more east than what it shows right now. That said, there could still be something to offset the progressive trend...maybe the upstream ridge becomes more amped out near the rockies and helps drive this deeper. I just wouldn't bet that way right now since it hasn't been happening in this pattern. Expand Yeah, My bet is it goes a bit east of where its being modeled right now, That would end up in a better position up here as it wants to cut or hug the coast into DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 7:52 PM, dryslot said: Yeah, My bet is it goes a bit east of where its being modeled right now, That would end up in a better position up here as it wants to cut or hug the coast into DE Maine. Expand Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 6:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes, it's going to be a nice event for a chunk of the interior....we'll see how far southeast it can snow. Wouldn't surprise me if future runs tickle it a bit further E based on the reasoning above. Expand I need to recalibrate my understanding of "interior". It was easy when I lived in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 8:59 PM, moneypitmike said: I need to recalibrate my understanding of "interior". It was easy when I lived in GC. Expand ORH hills are definitely considered interior if you were unsure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 8:59 PM, moneypitmike said: I need to recalibrate my understanding of "interior". It was easy when I lived in GC. Expand you're right on the line now. Interior is anything northwest of a Portsmouth-KASH-ORH-BDL-Waterbury line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 9:12 PM, Whineminster said: you're right on the line now. Interior is anything northwest of a Portsmouth-KASH-ORH-BDL-Waterbury line. Expand That’s where there be dragons 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 9:13 PM, CoastalWx said: That’s where there be dragons Expand The entire state of Maine and NH? I think you should move up and in, you're not even a beach guy and you'd have a better commute and cheaper housing. Plus your kids wouldn't have to live next to snobby towns like Hingham. Wellesley kids made fun of us Natick kids so bad I had to move far away before I couldn't hear the jeers anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 9:16 PM, Whineminster said: The entire state of Maine and NH? I think you should move up and in, you're not even a beach guy and you'd have a better commute and cheaper housing. Plus your kids wouldn't have to live next to snobby towns like Hingham. Wellesley kids made fun of us Natick kids so bad I had to move far away before I couldn't hear the jeers anymore. Expand I like the beach, used to beach it all the time when I was younger. Why didn’t you guys knock the Wellesley kids out? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 It was nice to get the driveway mostly ice free today. Based on no meteorology, I am calling for a rainer every Saturday in January, since I have invested hundreds of dollars in lessons and lift tickets for the family for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 7:17 PM, Ginx snewx said: Kuchie lovin Expand MPM would through his laptop through the window with that gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 9:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: ORH hills are definitely considered interior if you were unsure. Expand On 1/3/2020 at 9:12 PM, Whineminster said: you're right on the line now. Interior is anything northwest of a Portsmouth-KASH-ORH-BDL-Waterbury line. Expand I will have my quarters ready for a coin-flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18z euro looks more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 00z gfs is a decent snow event just away from the coast, next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/4/2020 at 4:01 AM, CoastalWx said: 00z gfs is a decent snow event just away from the coast, next week. Expand Well that’s encouraging...some decent news for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/4/2020 at 4:09 AM, WinterWolf said: Well that’s encouraging...some decent news for a change. Expand Probably BDL-ORH on N and W favored, but much better from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/4/2020 at 4:10 AM, CoastalWx said: Probably BDL-ORH on N and W favored, but much better from previous runs. Expand Ya that’s fine for now...it’ll trend one way or the other as we close in...but we take for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 You guys aren't doing half bad for winter so far relative to the rest of the country. I think going forward, El Nino should be viewed more in the context of elevation than it is now. The mountains of New England & the Southwest are probably the only areas of the US with a real shot of a cold winter still. Maybe the Northern Plains too, Billings was similarly warm through last January and still finished cold, because their weather is stupid amazing in term of variation, it was 22F below or something in February after something like a +7 Dec-Jan. For most of the US, a month 20F below average is lottery odds to physically impossible. These are 12/1-1/3 temps v. 1981-2010 averages nationally. Roger Smith had mentioned the mid-January torch in his mid-October forecast - pretty good. Nashville: (8.0 x 31) + (3 x 11.3) / 34 --> +8.3F Billings: (6.6 x 31) + (3 x 12.3) / 34 --> +7.1F Chicago: (6.3 x 31) + (3 x 13.0) / 34 --> +6.9F Kansas City: (6.4 x 31) + (3 x 12.3) / 34 --> 6.9F Jacksonville: (5.4 x 31) + (3 x 9.7) / 34 --> +6.3F Atlanta: (5.9 x 31) + (3 x 7.3) /34 --> +6.0F Detroit: (5.0 x 31) + (3 x 13.0) / 34 --> +5.7F Amarillo: (5.0 x 31) + (3 x 5.0) / 34 --> +5.0F New Orleans: (4.0 x 31) + (3 x 10.3) / 34 --> +4.6F Seattle: (3.9 x 31) + (3 x 6.2) / 34 --> +4.1F Salt Lake City: (3.6 x 31) + (3 x 5.5) / 34 --> +3.8F Denver: (3.7 x 31) + (3 x 3.3) / 34 --> +3.7F Pittsburgh: (3.0 x 31) + (3 x 10.7) / 34 --> +3.7F Richmond: (3.0 x 31) + (3 x 9.5) / 34 --> +3.6F Houston: (3.2 x 31) + (3 x 6.0) / 34 --> +3.4F Boston: (2.5 x 31) + (3 x 13) / 34 --> +3.4F San Francisco: (2.9 x 31) + (3 x 3.0) / 34 --> +2.9F Oklahoma City: (2.3 x 31) + (3 x 7.0) / 34 --> +2.7F San Diego:(2.2 x 31) + (3 x 2.4) / 34 --> +2.2F Philadelphia: (1.2 x 31) + (3 x 5.5) / 34 --> +1.6F Albuquerque: (1.3 x 31) + (3 x -2.2) / 34 --> +1.0F Flagstaff: (-0.2 x 31) + (3 x -4.0) / 34 --> -0.5F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looks like overnight guidance coninutes to shift in the east/progressive direction for 1/8....weaker system but colder. Prob snow for most of SNE off coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/4/2020 at 10:47 AM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like overnight guidance coninutes to shift in the east/progressive direction for 1/8....weaker system but colder. Prob snow for most of SNE off coastline. Expand That was nice to see. The 12th on the other hand looks to have taken a turn for the worse. Tons of time for both. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/4/2020 at 11:03 AM, moneypitmike said: That was nice to see. The 12th on the other hand looks to have taken a turn for the worse. Tons of time for both. Expand The weekend one was always a rains to Maine’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Tip NJ cyclone model on 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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