January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[CAPE]

Looking through the 0z EPS members, I see 10 or so that have light/moderate frozen for our region between Jan 1 and 7. Not a strong signal, but that period still has potential for some sort of a well timed modest wave to track underneath after a cold front, or a front end slop to rain deal. In this pattern the cold will be fleeting so we will need the usual good timing and luck.

[dailylurker]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure I agree. There is the tendency  for EC/SE ridging showing up on the ensembles in the LR. It's not a stationary/persistent feature on the means, but given the 500 mb pattern depicted(+AO/+NAO/westward displaced EPAC ridge), it would not be surprising if it ends up more of a fixture than currently depicted.

It will. Book it. Heat and shit patterns are always sniffed out early and hold steady. 

[Ji]

I'm about to give up like HM

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

I'm about to give up like HM

Seems like the PV intensity is going to wax and wane this winter. Looks like its going to be on the strong/consolidated side and live up near the pole over the next couple weeks. Hopefully beyond that we see more perturbations with some developing height rises in the high latitudes. It's definitely a tad discouraging seeing all that blue up top going forward on the means, but it is what it is.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Seems like the PV intensity is going to wax and wane this winter. Looks like its going to be on the strong/consolidated side and live up near the pole over the next couple weeks. Hopefully beyond that we see more perturbations with some developing height rises in the high latitudes. It's definitely a tad discouraging seeing all that blue up top going forward on the means, but it is what it is.

We completely wasted 2 weeks of a beautiful -AO period because of a hostile pac. That’s the most discouraging thing. 

[dallen7908]

I would be more discouraged if we wasted a -AO period during February. Sitting at 0.3" entering the New Year seems like the new normal inside the Beltway.  Is it true that BWI is sitting at 0.1" or did they score a few tenths on another storm. 

Yes the extended range still looks to feature a ++AO, +NAO, neutral EPO, -PNA.  Over days 6-10, 3 of 21 GEFS members and 3 of 51 EPS members give us 1" or more of snow.  One EPS member gives us 7" during the January 2/3 time frame. Our 3 category chance of above normal temperatures is 40-50% for week 2 a far cry from the 70--80% hell we've seen during deep dark abysmal periods (DDAPS). 

[WxUSAF]

BWIs had 0.3”

[Maestrobjwa]

Random question: Now I see back in 2005/06 we got that one storm that dumped about a foot at BWI and then not much the rest of the winter (I don't know why I don't remember that one, lol)...Now was that one of those situations where we lucked into something during a variable pattern (with hostile periods, I'm guessing)?

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Random question: Now I see back in 2005/06 we got that one storm that dumped about a foot at BWI and then not much the rest of the winter (I don't know why I don't remember that one, lol)...Now was that one of those situations where we lucked into something during a variable pattern (with hostile periods, I'm guessing)?

Some have called that storm a “thread the needle” but imo it was a very good patter (just not long lived) for a snowstorm. 

perfectly placed east based EPO ridge, +PNA, -AO, and a 50/50 with just enough ridging in the west based NAO domain. The NAO was probably technically neutral there but there are enough other good things going on to mitigate. We don’t need a perfect NAO if everything else is lined up right. 

Problem that winter was that PAC alignment was a short anomaly from the base state  

the AO/NAO were ok that winter but the PAC with that AK vortex and huge ridge in the central PAC took a huge crap on us most of the winter.  The one time it took a break we got a big snowstorm  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the AO/NAO were ok that winter but the PAC with that AK vortex and huge ridge in the central PAC took a huge crap on us most of the winter.  The one time it took a break we got a big snowstorm  

I see...so in that winter we managed to take a swing during that tiny window and just happened to hit a homerun, lol I mean, I'd call that thread the needle in a more general sense of getting a good swing during a very brief favorable period! 

And what do ya know...that one time was all it took for the "1 foot storm every 3-4 years" trend to continue (otherwise we would've had a drought of footers until 2009-10!) Hopefully we can get at least one swing like that this winter...even if things don't get more favorable overall (but hopefully they do)

[PCT_ATC]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

I'm about to give up like HM

Ji,  you gave up in JUNE 

[BristowWx]

interesting look on GFS 234hr...kissing 1045 and 1050 highs in W. Conus and W. Canada sliding SE...been a wide selection of op run fantasy looks...add this to the pile I suppose. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

What a road block the Sunday storm runs into . Latest Gfs has the primary running  to Minnesota then redevelopes in southern Ohio....then transfers off the southern New England coast . Pretty nuts . 

 

Gfs sure brings the cold hammer at day 10 +

 

combo of a 956 50/50 and what looks like a solid 1040 high in the PAC just squeezes opens the ice flow...fun to look at

[Wonderdog]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

combo of a 956 50/50 and what looks like a solid 1040 high in the PAC just squeezes opens the ice flow...fun to look at

I like the snow hole over NOVA with the storm approaching from the west.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

I like the snow hole over NOVA with the storm approaching from the west.

yes that is chuckle worthy for sure.  its nearly impossible to even get fantasy blue precip over the region.  but not a bad look overall...for an op run of course.  there is cold sloshing around up top so there is something

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...so in that winter we managed to take a swing during that tiny window and just happened to hit a homerun, lol I mean, I'd call that thread the needle in a more general sense of getting a good swing during a very brief favorable period! 

I agree with this, from the perspective of a seasonal scale it was a thread the needle.  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I'm about to give up like HM

I haven’t seen anything from Massiello in days. You just inferring from his silence or did he actually say something pertinent that I missed?

[psuhoffman]

There are some signs the PV will weaken again towards day 15. There is also a camp within the ens that starts to build the epo ridge over the top towards day 15. The op gfs does this too. That’s one way out to a pattern that’s conducive to snow. Until then we can hope for a fluke or a flawed sloppy setup.  They can happen mid winter pretty easy in a “non shutout” look and as others have said without a strong SE ridge we have a shot but anything is a long shot until we get the HL look to improve. 

[Ji]

I haven’t seen anything from Massiello in days. You just inferring from his silence or did he actually say something pertinent that I missed?

Silence

[ryanconway63]

Fairly quiet in here for Late December.....not much to look forward to in the short term.....there at least looks to be some potential in the January 5-10 time frame.  At worst its likely to go below normal temp wise for that period.  Hopefully we can get at least some type of light event during this period.......

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I haven’t seen anything from Massiello in days. You just inferring from his silence or did he actually say something pertinent that I missed?

Silence

Perhaps he is enjoying the holiday. 

[psuhoffman]

That is exactly the opposite of what we want. I will give it another week or so before making any conclusions but I really hope this isn’t the dominant winter base state showing itself. If so it’s going to be a real struggle, even by our standards. I’ll probably check back out until things look more positive. I don’t want to repeat the obvious when it’s negative. 

Hopefully by New Years we will see the light on the other side. 

[WxUSAF]

Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman.  I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That is exactly the opposite of what we want. I will give it another week or so before making any conclusions but I really hope this isn’t the dominant winter base state showing itself. If so it’s going to be a real struggle, even by our standards. I’ll probably check back out until things look more positive. I don’t want to repeat the obvious when it’s negative. 

Hopefully by New Years we will see the light on the other side. 

Is this similar what we know it will look like for this current stretch? (also, I sent ya a DM)

[BristowWx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman.  I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.  

 

Well maybe day 15 is just a flawed output. Let’s hope. 

[frd]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is exactly the opposite of what we want. I will give it another week or so before making any conclusions but I really hope this isn’t the dominant winter base state showing itself. If so it’s going to be a real struggle, even by our standards. I’ll probably check back out until things look more positive. I don’t want to repeat the obvious when it’s negative. 

Hopefully by New Years we will see the light on the other side. 

In a general sense,  I see the same issues as last year,  but slightly varied. 

Still Pac issues persist...... 

Modeling not seeing the SE ridge beyond day 6 but it shows up due to the crap Pacific pattern,   as mentioned earlier today by bluewave

Warm and wet then cold and dry - cutters, etc. 

West Pac SST structure not conducive, hence effecting the MJO behavior  ( related to the study done on warmer phases lasting longer and  colder phases lasting shorter time periods  ) 

Fast Pac jet - continued records being set across NA and the NH

Ridging and High pressure North of Hawaii - same as last year. Then downstream effects for us. Again, nothing new.  

Warmer SST profile  too far off the West Coast of NA. - Never really looked that good, even earlier in the Fall.  

Nothing remarkable is evident so far regarding this December, except the continued above average rainfall. However,  the AN precip is simply a consequence of the above factors.  

But, maybe things will change later in January.  Not loosing any sleep about this winter, not worthwhile in my opinion, as I learned to lower expectations and be more rationale after last year.  However, still feel a window of significant winter weather will occur in Feb and even March. 

Here is a recent post form Tom.  

From @Isotherm

Note ozone concentration propensity, which is highly reflective/comports with the mean z500 structure hemispherically. Increased ozone residence over the WPO/West EPO domains will continue to promote higher geopotential heights, whilst lower ozone concentrations in the means near the North Pole/Greenland will promote the overall +NAO paradigm maintenance, prospectively. When one considers the forthcoming AAM cycling, that too, comports with the NWP's modeled Nina-esque z500 structure in the medium term.

 

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[Scarlet Pimpernel]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman.  I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.  

 

Yeah, the D10 looks not half bad, all things considered.  But that D15 that @psuhoffman showed is an absolute shite look...or, as he put it "exactly the opposite of what we want".  Strangely, I can see how this relatively decent D10 can morph into what PSU showed for 5 days later, if that ridging extending into the Aleutians doesn't move east very much or at all.  The trough in the east would just get pushed out eventually, I guess, as that Aleutian ridge forces a deeper west coast trough.  And we don't even need to say how lousy the NAO region is.

(ETA:  Nothing personal meant by my comments, @psuhoffman, that was all directed at how things looked of course and not at you!  You're just the messenger.  Though I assume you knew what I was saying!)

[Solution Man]

GFS says serious cold air next weekend

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS says serious cold air next weekend

Gefs also

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

For anyone concerned about the second half of winter, check out the MJO charts from early winter 2013-2015!  They actually align quite well!