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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

It’s got quite a bit to go. ICON had a very similar progression to the Euro.

 

keep watching up in NE for lowering heights near the 50/50 region.

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10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The guidance mishandling of the play between the tpv and North Atlantic vortex really mucked things up. That phasing and consolidating into Baffin vs splitting and sliding out forces the canadien ridge too far south and flipped the pattern on a dime. It was one thing...but a BIG thing.  Maybe one big thing will break in our favor one of these times.  

Guidance wasn't the only thing that mishandled plays this past week!!!!!!!!

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6 hours ago, mattskiva said:


Well, that verbatim would be good for the ski areas, at least.  And they desperately need it.

And that seems realistic. Antecedent temps and +anomalous 2m/850s preceding the storm generally dont bode well for the lower elevations. The banana high looks nice but this doesnt look like a SECS for the i95 cities (maybe BOS) at this time. 

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11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat.

Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 

So I got all of that sleep last week for my health I guess

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  • 11 months later...
1 minute ago, Ji said:


Smh


.

I told you in December last year winter was likely going to be an epic fail. I said I would keep tracking like I always do just in case we got lucky and I was wrong but when I got that fluke little wave in early January I told myself it might be the only snow I saw all year and I made sure to enjoy it.  And it was!   But I was content. I resigned myself to it early. This year my snowblower is gassed and tuned up (already used it once) and if we don’t get at least one more really good storm I will be very disappointed. My bar isn’t as high as yours but I do think we snow a decent amount this winter. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I told you in December last year winter was likely going to be an epic fail. I said I would keep tracking like I always do just in case we got lucky and I was wrong but when I got that fluke little wave in early January I told myself it might be the only snow I saw all year and I made sure to enjoy it.  And it was!   But I was content. I resigned myself to it early. This year my snowblower is gassed and tuned up (already used it once) and if we don’t get at least one more really good storm I will be very disappointed. My bar isn’t as high as yours but I do think we snow a decent amount this winter. 

lol....i was looking at this thread trying to find some hideous 500mb maps and compare them to what we are seeing this year.  Just reminded me what a disaster last year was

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